저자: EddieGabor · 외국인
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2025년 2월 시장 급락 속 '조정 매수' 기회를 주장. 2월 인플레 둔화 발표(3월)가 금리 인하 기대를 살려 위험자산에 우호적이라고 봄. 엔비디아 실적이 핵심 변수이며 S&P500 6,300~6,500 상승을 전망. 엔비디아·아마존·메타를 매수 중이며 XLY(아마존·테슬라 중심)와 금융주(JP모건, XLF 약 6%) 비중을 확대. 금융주는 여름 이후 리스크가 실현될 수 있다고 봄. VIX 20 이하 유지 전망.
다듬은 글
let's get the bigger picture Eddie Gabor is here owner of key advisor wealth management thank you for being here um how are you feeling about the market particularly on a day where it's riskof you see a lot of selling happening and people are running to the safe havens um what do you think I don't think this is any different than the volatility we've seen so far in 2025 this is going to be the story for this year uh so I think really on a day like today there have been a lot of people very bearish this month that have not participated in this market this gives them a second chance to get into some of these names that have sold off from their highs uh we're still not that far off from the all-time high so to me today is just a buying opportunity for those that have missed the run so far this year uh cuz I think the setup for March and April is going to be pretty good right understood I know you have a few names that you own and sectors that you own because there are certain themes that seem to be working right that's exactly right and and one of our main thesis is going into the March as to why we think it's going to be a pretty strong market for the riskier assets is I think when we get this inflation data that we're going to get for the month of February that'll be reported in March is going to show a moderation in inflation I don't think that Trend will last all year but the market will react to that news that's just for this month and I think that's going to be very positive because that's going to put rate Cuts back on the table in the bond market that's going to keep the 10e under 4.7 and because so many people are bearish they're going to be forced in my opinion uh to buy and I think you're going to see names like Nvidia and meta and Amazon and those types of discretionary names uh that are also getting beat up today uh could go significantly higher and catch a bid uh we put cash to work again today and we're now pretty much fully invested for the most part we have moves that we can make if we get more surprises post Nvidia earnings but February is the buy the dip month to set yourself up for a strong March and April you think Nvidia earnings are going to help the market hurt the market or be some sort of moment in time so we told our clients today we sent out a video to clients today and said we have no idea how that Market's going to react to Nvidia we know it's going to move it in a big way one way or another but it'll be a one or two- Day event our thesis on Nvidia is if we think the S&P is going to go to 63 or maybe 6,500 in the coming months which is what our what we think will happen that name is such a big percentage of the overall indexes it's really hard mathematically to think of a market that's going to go to highs and not take the most important name with it so we could see Revenue grow slow to me and Nvidia the biggest thing is going to be on the earnings call they're going to have to answer the Deep seek question and if they knock it out of the park you could see that name go ahead and take off and go ahead and finally break break that 150 barrier that seems to be a resistance level for that stop right I mean when you think about the other mag seven names I know you were all also looking at Amazon right for example you like that name we do we like Amazon and we like meta uh so Nvidia Amazon meta are the top three names uh that we're buying right now the mag 7 um Amazon is at a pretty good price point right now I didn't think it would get to this point this fast so we were glad we bought some of that today and meta I mean meta is one of the companies that have actually monetized AI they've got over a billion viewers on their social media I mean they dominate that space uh and it wasn't too long ago that stock was at 740 and now it's taking a breather back down under 700 so under 700 and in today's price point uh we're comfortable with that risk reward again I think the setup is really good for the next couple of months so we are buyers today yeah I mean today on a on the dip mentality right um you know and before I get to financials you were looking at the XL you thought this was a good way to get some more exposure under some of these names right yeah so xly that's a really a trade on Amazon and Tesla those are covers a big percentage of that ETF so for investors that aren't comfortable or have the risk talent for individual stocks ETFs are a great way to play it we play it both we have the xly and our uh ETF strategies that are tactical and shorter term in nature and we also own uh Amazon and Tesla and some of our other Holdings right understood um where so JP Morgan financials you do like that group what's going to drive financials higher so the driver behind financials is going to be a couple of things and we did buy JP uh more JP Morgan yesterday I think it was down about 4 and a half% so for some clients we bought that XLF is about a 6% position in our tactical ETF strategy and financials because we think this econ is going to stay resilient and we're going to get deregulation under this new Administration that's a pretty good thing for financials and financials have been one of the best places to be on a year-to-date basis and it's very hard to find a bare Market where financials are doing well so we do see some real risks in this market but we don't think they're going to materialize until the summer and the second half of this year in the meantime I think there is a lot of Runway to the upside when you look at how people are bared up going into a month that I think is going to surprise on inflation that's going to keep the vix again under 20 and keep that 10e in a really sweet spot all right vix right now at 18 Eddie Gabor owner of key advisor wealth management thank you Eddie great to see you
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