저자: CalebSilver · 외국인
요약 보기
리테일 투자자의 거래가 2021년 이후 최고 수준(시장 거래의 약 25%, JP모건 집계)으로 급증했으며, 대형 기술주와 AI 소형주에 쏠림. 투자자 설문은 신중한데 거래는 뜨거워 괴리가 있음. AI 소형주는 고점 대비 큰 폭 하락 후 추격 매수가 나타나며 밸류에이션 거품 우려가 있음. 리테일의 시장 전체 견인력은 2021년보다 약하다고 평가. 전력·에너지 관련주의 추가 상승 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
it's time to Spotlight the retail retail Trader and Trends in the market with Caleb silver editor-in chief of Investopedia he joins me now at the desk Caleb always great to have you thanks for being here my pleasure so uh you know before we actually get into what retail Traders investors are actually buying and selling I do want to ask you because I was taking a look at your notes and your top note is retail Traders rush into a messy Market is that how you're looking at this market right now as messy absolutely it's messy and you can just tell on the volatility but also it's very moved by headlines this is a headline driven market right now a lot of uncertainty so investors in general like to sell first ask questions later but we've seen a lot of whipsawing with the market really not going too far although we keep touching record highs seem to be stuck in this trend that said the individual stock stories are the ones that are moving right now not the overall markets and that's where you see retail investors rushing in to the big popular stocks but also to the AI bubble bubble uh when they're chasing stocks that have been very going into the last few weeks just as they're starting to fall it's this interesting Behavior where we say one thing as individual investors I'm cautious right now I'm uncertain you look at our survey we do every two months our readers are cautious and if you look at the AI sentiment survey more cautious you know more bearish than usual yet you see retail trading activity at highs we haven't seen since pre- pandemic and our just put it into perspective in terms of rushing in uh haven't seen since the pandemic how does it actually compare to the pandemic when everyone wanted to be Warren Buffett and are we talking retail investing or are we talking retail trading are these short-term trades or are these longer term buys a little of both and when you look at the names that they're buying you can tell that it is both individual long-term investors looking for to add on to their Holdings or maybe grab the foam of stocks that they might have missed but it's a lot of trading activity JP Morgan does a a monthly report on retail trading activity it's at 25% for US Stocks retail participation at 25% more than double prepandemic levels actually close to the record we saw in 2021 now this is is not a meme stock craze per se we're not seeing the blackberries the AMCs of the world flying like we used to but there are some other stocks that have been taking off that we haven't heard of yet or that maybe they've been on the whisper uh notes going around certain circles especially in the AI sector those stocks have had incredible first few weeks of the Year and have fallen off precipitously but that's where you see us rushing in okay so let's get to those names but I I guess really we should note that they're also rushing in or maybe chasing to some of the the the old favorites Tesla paler AMD Amazon so some fomo there because we just had Dan Deming on and he's very much looking at this as an equal weight approach year to this Market that wouldn't be uh what basically what retail trading is suggesting right now no they're going after big names Nvidia obviously down 7% from its highs uh Tesla down 15% from its highs these are the most actively traded by retail investors also the most widely held by retail investors but of course paler which dropped significantly on that news yesterday that was one of the best that best performing stock last year one of the best performers up until this week AMD down 11% and Amazon down 6% again headline driven big names but if you look at the top Holdings of retail investors it looks just like this with apple in there of course maybe a little super micro computer in there of course and alphabet and a few others they are also in the top 20 actively traded and actively held but you also see this activity spreading through some of the Obscure AI stocks okay and I should know Palante here down another almost 11% today so uh certainly one to keep I mean still up 20% this month alone but still definitely one to keep on the radar you talked about maybe some of the more obscure AI names um I was just taking at your list or taking a look at your list Big Bear retti the the quantum Computing stock SoundHound uh so Phyllis in here these are these are names that have already seen kind of a nice pop but there's a Chase going on here AB absolutely some of these stocks are of triple digits and around here people might know those names that around the circles that that you and I spend time in but out there for ret investors they see AI kind of like years ago when it was blockchain or maybe cannabis or or you just add something onto the suffix of a name these are actual real companies that are using AI but there's small M were micro caps that have blown up into small cap stocks right now Big Bear AI down 19% from its high AI facial recognition technology a lot of Defense contracts uh a lot of uh Logistics and travel uh transport contracts we Getti obviously the quantum AI poster child um and that stock is down 45% from its highs you know what happens when a stock Falls 35% and needs a 50% recovery to get back to par a 45% drop you're almost talking about 100% recovery there SoundHound AI they uh they do obviously uh sound related AI stuff and Tempest AI down 4% from it size AI Precision medicine these stocks were very hot hotly traded which you saw retail trading activity really pick up in the last couple weeks just as they started to fall so our timing is always questionable and a lot of us hear about these names too late in the game you're seeing a lot of Chase on these names right now but here's the thing that sticks out to me the most about that is you say retail investors are buying the AI bubble dip are you looking at this as a bubble I think in some stocks you have to when you see a stock that you really doesn't have the kind of even metrics to even support some of the PE ratios that we're seeing right now or the price to sales ratios popping 300 400% you got to question it and some of these stocks as I said these are little companies doing 50 75 100 million in rev all of a sudden with uh market caps in the billions of dollars so yeah I think we've come a little too far with that but investors want to get their first retail investors catch wind of these sometimes we catch these at the wrong time maybe I'll be wrong about this but it seems like when you see these stocks especially the retti is falling a 45% recoveries are very tough from that low of a day yeah although we've seen super micro start to make some progress with a a huge downturn there um in terms of um the the retail investor though how powerful is the retail investor right now because as we start to think about Market leadership through the rest of the year there there are more calls that we're not going to to be seeing it from these exact areas where they're buying so how should we think about the power of the retail investor well I say it's uh retail trading is at 25% of the market right now that's significantly high and that can move the market especially in certain names but when you see them buying individual stocks and stock picking it doesn't lift the overall Market back in 2021 we were covering this uh a lot well there were so many people investing and starting to invest for the first time they were a lot of them were buying the mem stock names but a lot of them were buying the big ETFs as well that were driving the market higher the index based ETFs that usually end up lifting the market higher so you have the Casual participation of those of us in 401ks that just keep buying large cap funds every couple of weeks but then you have people trying to get the names that they may have missed on in the past couple of years it can move individual stocks I don't think it moves the market as much as it did in 2021 it was really wild back then okay I'm getting the wrap signal but I just want to ask quickly it seems like a lot of fomo plays a lot of chasing anything stand out that's you know maybe they're ahead of the trend well electricity power this is the new age of electricity the Ia called it you've seen electricity and power stocks rally a lot of natural gas a lot of Texas based companies we're going to probably continue to see a lot of activity there we're going to need a lot more power to power all these AI server Farms okay so could still be some chasing there based on some of the returns but Caleb always great to have you thanks so much
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