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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리의 테슬라 공매도(풋옵션 약 5억 달러 규모)를 강하게 비판하며, 테슬라 주가에 대해 단기·중기 하락 전망을 명확히 제시하지 않고 오히려 강세 입장을 시사한다. 버리의 베팅 개요: 2021년 1분기 보고서 기준 풋 계약 약 8,001건(약 80만 주, 약 5억 달러 규모)을 보유한 것으로 알려졌다. 진행자는 이 베팅이 결과적으로 잘못된 판단이라고 평가한다. 비판 논리 1 – 규제크레딧 의존 주장: 버리가 테슬라 수익이 규제크레딧에 의존한다고 지적한 것을 반박한다. 2021년 1분기 규제크레딧 매출 약 5억 1,800만 달러, 2020년 4분기 순이익 2억 7,000만 달러 중 4억 100만 달러가 크레딧 판매에서 나왔다는 점을 인정하면서도, 테슬라가 이를 성장 투자에 활용하는 전략적 선택이라고 해석한다. 비판 논리 2 – 기술 및 생산 관련: 모델 S/X 생산 지연, 4680 배터리 셀 양산 지연 보도가 언급되지만 출처가 불분명하다고 의문을 제기한다. 중국 판매 둔화, 부품 부족 등 단기 악재도 인정한다. 비판 논리 3 – 강세 근거: 테슬라 2분기 생산·판매 여력이 수요를 밑돈다는 주장, 규모의 경제·영업레버리지 개선, 로보택시·에너지 사업 잠재력, 자율주행 기술 우위 등을 근거로 강세를 주장한다. 진행자 자신은 테슬라 롱 포지션을 보유 중이라고 밝힌다. 주가 흐름: 2020년 740% 상승 후 2021년 들어 약 20% 하락한 상태였다. 진행자는 2분기 실적이 기록적일 것이라 예상한다. 비트코인: 테슬라의 비트코인 결제 중단 발표 이후에도 단기~중기적으로 비트코인에 여전히 강세(bullish)라고 밝힌다. 리스크·조건: 단기 베팅은 잘못된 근거로도 수익이 날 수 있으나 장기적으로는 투기라고 평가한다. 2분기 실적 발표 이후 결과를 봐야 한다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버리에 대한 개인적 비난은 자제하지만 공매도 논리는 강하게 반박하며, 테슬라 강세 입장을 유지한다.
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the great thing about the interwebs these days is we get to learn about people's investment decisions sometimes before we actually see the end result case in point today michael brewery who has a gigantic short position so to speak betting against tesla stock now i just want to be really clear here nobody can ever predict the future of the stock market myself included michael included so anything could happen this could turn out to be the most profitable decision of michael's investment career but if i were to give a probability to that outcome i'd say we'd be looking somewhere in the 0.00000 range possible but highly highly and probable in this video we're going to discuss michael's short position on tesla stock which apparently is worth close to half a billion dollars according to cnbs and we're going to look through michael's reasoning as to why he believes this is a smart investment decision and i hate to rain on your parade but uh spoiler alert this is not going to end well for michael he seems to have bought into the fud just a great example of how a smart person can make extremely dumb decisions and reason poorly despite the fact that in the past they've actually reasoned very well and done extremely well in investing and i'm not here to on michael personally i don't have an issue with the guy but i do want to look through the reasoning here because we are about to see what appears to be a catastrophic error of judgment based on very poor reasoning and buying into the fud rather than thinking dollars ote up to 250 udie so before we dive into this video just allow me to set the scene i personally believe that betting against elon musk is one of the dumbest decisions any human being can possibly make you may disagree however my merchandise sales seem to suggest something differently second best selling product of all time don't bet against elon with over 600 units sold and the number one seller tesla stock to the moon which turned out to be rather prophetic what a surprise of course this doesn't really mean a whole lot but i do just want to set the scene of where i'm coming from even if you think there's certain conditions that may suggest that betting against tesla is a good idea given the fact that there's an overarching idea that elon's relatively smart a great execute a great track record etc even if you think you know what this might be a good short position it's worth taking a step back and thinking hmm what's the track record like for this guy how much pain can he endure what is his ability to execute look like has he done multiple impossible things is he smarter than i am does his company harbor an army of the world's best engineers has betting against elon ever been a good idea in the past and so on these are useful questions to ask so with the scene set let's see how michael plans to bury himself and get it barry cassava my life yeah so let's just pretend that didn't happen michael berry of the big short reveals a 530 million dollar bet against tesla remember that uh t-shirt there don't bet against elon well uh this guy's doing exactly that not going to end well and by the way just notice how this is trending number one on cnbs i've had a bunch of people dming me this morning want to hear my thoughts and opinions on this obviously a lot of people following this guy after he slayed it famous from the big short if you haven't seen it dig into it do your own homework the point is lots of people are interested in michael's big bet against tesla elon michael is long puts against over 800 thousand shares of tesla or about half a billion dollars by the end of the first quarter according to a filing with the ussc also known as suck elon's i mean um i forget what their actual name is anyway let's move on brewery was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis this is why we all know and care about what he's doing now he previously mentioned in a tweet that tesla's reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits oh my god the poor guy is brought into the fud he's been listening to gordon johnson that's awkward isn't it previously that tesla's reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company's long-term prospects we'll talk more about this in a moment famed investor michael berry on monday revealed in a regulatory filing a short position against tesla worth more than half a billion dollars jesus dude i've got to give him credit though big balls and i have to say i really appreciate large testicles i'm always a big fan of people making big bets if they believe they're right if they've got a high level conviction whether it works out or not massive respect investors profit from puts when the underlying securities fall in price as of march 31st barry owned 8001 put contracts with unknown value strike price or expiry according to the filing so unfortunately we don't have any metrics to work out where the position sitting at now might be looking good though to be honest given that tesla's come back plenty in the last month or so he could actually be well into the green here maybe as close to position if so well done sir good short term play not a big fan of the reasoning behind it but could have worked out hopefully michael has taken advantage of the opportunity to collect at least some of the profits there because i'm not sure this is going to last too long especially with tesla's q2 just around the corner shares of tesla fell more than four percent on monday bringing its month to date losses to nearly 20 and i just want to jump in here please let me know in the comments if you guys and girls have been buying this recent dip in tesla stock as i've mentioned recently if i didn't have a gigantic like truly colossal tax bill i would be loading up with every spare cent but unfortunately i can't postpone that any further otherwise i may end up in prison and then i probably won't be making videos for you guys bury whose firm's scion asset management shot to fame by betting against mortgage securities before the 2008 crisis was depicted in michael lewis's book the big short and the subsequent oscar-winning movie of the same name and by the way great film highly recommend you guys watch it if you haven't already it's fantastic tesla has had a turbulent 2021 i mean slumping sales in china in april i just want to jump in here let's just ignore the fact that some of the production lines were down for upgrades and maintenance yeah let's just ignore that okay yep slumping sales in china keep the fund coming cmbs and part shortages that have impended production both in the us and china now that is true buri previously mentioned in a tweet which he later deleted the tesla's reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is a red flag and i just want to point out that the fact that michael thinks that this is an issue is a red flag because he hasn't done his homework i've covered this four quadrillion times on this channel it's like i just don't even want to go there again if you've never heard me debunk this let me know in the comments below somebody will explain for me i just can't be bothered i've said this four million times it just it just astonishes me that somebody's so smart is also simultaneously so dumb tesla isn't relying on regulatory credits they're managing their capital effectively they're aware that these regulatory credits are coming in they're spending accordingly i mean jesus dude please as more automakers produce battery electric vehicles of their own ostensibly fewer will need to purchase environmental regulatory credits which they have done in order to become compliant with environmental regulations besides his big short brewery made a killing from a long game stop position recently as the reddit favorite made wall street history with its massive short squeeze once again michael big bald buried doing well on a short-term bet i've got to congratulate the guy total respect i wouldn't have had the kahunas to do that i watched the whole thing play out i thought you know what there could be something in this but i'm steering clear so credit where it's due my friend in the first quarter of 2021 tesla reported 518 million dollars in sales of regulatory credit which elon musk's company generally receives from government programs to support renewable energy it has sold these to other automakers notably fca now stellantis where they needed credits to offset their own carbon footprint we've also heard about many other deals between tesla and other automotive companies as well many more to come yes many automotive manufacturers are slowly ramping up to av production but still they're moving too slow yes at some point in the future tesla will no longer be selling these regulatory credits but it's off in the distant future and simultaneous to that because it continues to improve their profitability increase their margins become more capital efficient and start to see economies of scale and operating leverage so these two things will cancel each other out in the fourth quarter of 2020 tesla's 270 million dollars in net income was enabled by its sale of 401 million in regulatory credits to other automakers tesla historically has racked up around 1.6 billion in regulatory energy credits primarily zero emission vehicle credits which helped the company report more than four consecutive quarters of profitability qualifying the automaker for addition to the s p 500 index once again i just want to take a moment to discuss this it is true that tesla has made an absolute killing selling these regulatory credits but the implications from the fuddy media and the brain dead short sellers and by the way i'm not saying michael's brain dead but many of the people shorting tesla let's be honest there's a severe lack of thinking and understanding if you as tesla know which particular agreements you have with other companies that aren't necessarily disclosed and you know you're going to have x billion dollars coming in this financial year you can decide to invest some of that capital in further expansion thus taking a leaf out of the amazon playbook and appearing to make absolutely no profits or very minimal profits for an extended period of time because wait for it you're investing heavily in growth expansion increasing your scale improving your manufacturing techniques driving your costs down r and d and more this is just one of those points where some people just intellectually just get stuck and they cannot see past or regulatory credits oh yeah they're going to go away oh my god doesn't can't make money without them it's just so embarrassing if you think a little bit deeper you start to realize it's a little bit more complicated and nuanced than that tesla isn't reliant on regulatory credits they're cognizant of their availability of regulatory credits over the short and medium term and thinking well we've got this money coming in do we want to show a gigantic short-term profit to appease some of the uh um investors who believe that this is extremely important or do we instead want to reward our long-term investors by investing heavily in growing our business and scaling our production driving our costs down inventing new technologies new techniques etc and playing the long game which of course is in alignment with our mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy not to accelerate our short-term profits for short-sighted investors who are also sometimes short on brain cells not gonna lie tesla is currently delayed in producing and delivering its updated versions of its high-end sedan and suv the model s and x very true and it also delayed its commercial production of its custom-designed 4680 battery cells for use in forthcoming vehicles including the cyber truck and tesla semi now can somebody please let me know in the comments where the this came from i haven't heard this does anyone anyone know has tesla officially confirmed that they're delayed in producing their 4680 cells anyone at all please i mean maybe i've missed this it's possible i don't know where this came from cnbs i mean i honestly don't know where where's the source where where i don't understand this is a strange article meanwhile musk's electric vehicle venture is facing regulatory scrutiny in china in the us with high profile vehicle crashes leading to negative publicity and investigations by vehicle safety authorities in both nations so here we go more fun you know what let's have a look at the author or authors of this article oh no we've got laura yeah uh i'm not even going to say anything there if you guys want to see what laura thinks of tesla and elon in general have a sniff around her twitter feed could be a bit of an agenda here many believe that ceo musk's tweets about bitcoin and dogecoin have also contributed to the volatility in tesla stock i don't really think so to be honest i think overall growth stocks at the moment are just getting absolutely hammered this isn't isolated to tesla the whole market's going through a very turbulent time musk has tens of millions of followers on twitter over 50 million to be precise musk a proponent of cryptocurrency generally announced last week that tesla was indefinitely suspending the acceptance of bitcoin as payment for cars saying he was concerned about the rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin mining and transactions man i've been poking the bear on this one so much the last week it's hilarious by the way guys i've lost so many subscribers over this whole bitcoin elon thing it's hilarious i love it zero thanksgiving i'm gonna keep poking the bet and by the way just to be clear because there were a few like legitimately branded morons in the comments yesterday claiming that i've changed my mind on bitcoin i want to be really clear even though i repeated it three or four times in yesterday's video i'm still very bullish on bitcoin over the short to medium term just want to make sure that that's very clear because some people like uh just maybe saying it four times in two videos will be enough tesla shares have dropped nearly 20 in 2021 after surging a whopping 740 percent in 2020.
how's that for some perspective right we won the clock back a little bit more than five months and suddenly we still see the tesla's up a ton now i really hope for the sake of michael's bank account and his reputation as an investor that is no longer short tesla stock via these puts however i don't know we don't have any information in either case i really don't think it's a wise thing to be short tesla stock going into their q2 results they're going to blow everything away and break every record test has ever had profitability revenue sales delivery but all of it every record is going to be shattered in tesla's q2 2.
i just want to be really clear these short-term bets can sometimes pay off even if your reasoning is completely wrong why is that well over the short term the stock market is a voting machine sentiment fighting the media etc can really have an impact on a stock price over the long term as the saying goes the stock market is a weighing machine but as we saw in the period of 2014 to 2019 where tesla stock literally traded sideways in fact there were periods in 2019 we could buy tesla stock for like 25 less than it was in 2014 despite growing revenues blah blah blah blah that's just one example of how over the short term and yes five years in terms of investment horizon is short term anything less than that isn't even investing in my opinion it's gambling over the short term anything can happen some investors may get the sense that they know what they're doing they were right even if their reasoning was completely wrong i'm hopeful that michael has had one of those situations where his reasoning was completely wrong but he doesn't end up completely bankrupting himself because he's exited the position but i really don't know we'll only find out after q2 but as i said at the start of the video it is never a wise idea to bet against elon musk it could work out there's certainly a chance that you might do well but if i was a betting man i would not be taking that bet in fact i'd rather be on the other side of it which i currently am long tesla stock now of course there's going to be a few short term thinkers in the comments ready to talk oh you're more and you lost so much money you should short tesla stock i'm sure some of michael's fanboys and fan girls will be in the comments as well like i said i hope he's done well from this trade i just completely disagree with the reasoning behind it i think it's one of the dumbest things you can possibly do to be short tesla stock that's not to say you can't make money shorting tesla stock once again i want to drive that point home you can but that's more a result of good luck than good management you can be right for the wrong reasons and i'd love to know your thoughts in the comments below what possible reasons legitimate reasons could people have for being short tesla stock currently they're growing production at a staggering rate faster than any company of their scale has ever done before manufacturing complex machines they're continuously driving their cost downs and innovating like we've never seen before within the automotive industry with giga casting all sorts of stuff octo valve people i could keep going guys i've heard the whole spiel before they're selling every vehicle they make and they have been for literally over a decade you can infer from recent information that tesla's already sold out all of their q2 production about one month into the quarter they have about three times as much demand as i can currently made at today's current prices with today's current performance and features which remember prices keep coming down features and functionality keep going up so that's going to continue to improve over time they're led by one of the world's smartest men and by far and away the world's greatest executor of all time they've got the world's best engineer an army of them they're eating the lunch of the entire legacy automotive industry the numbers which unfortunately a lot of these idiots shorting tesla haven't actually looked at the numbers very clearly show tesla's economies of scale operating leverage profitability margins everything's getting better in terms of financial metrics everything tesla has such compelling products that they don't even need to advertise they've laid the groundwork for an insanely profitable robo taxi business they're penetrating the energy markets they've got compelling products but an amazing roadmap they're the world's leading experts in computer vision i mean i could literally keep going i just what possible reason can anybody have grounded in logic from first principles not reasoning by analogy what possible reason could anyone have for being short tesla stock other than they hope that some of the fight in the media can drive the price down and this is a real serious question guys please if you've got any reasons at all legitimate reasons why anyone might short tesla that actually makes sense please let me know in the comments below i can't think of any but maybe i'm just an idiot you
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