저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 2020년 3월 발언과 이후 숏 포지션 수익을 비판하며, 2022년 1월 현재 연준 긴축 우려는 과장이고 인플레이션 기대(브레이크이븐)는 오히려 하락 중이라 시장은 상승 여지가 있다고 주장. 영상 말미 자신의 유료 프로그램 홍보 포함. 명시적 1~3개월 자산 방향 예측은 제한적이며, 시장을 '바닥 신호'로 보고 강세를 표명.
다듬은 글
folks this ought to be illegal this is absolutely freaking maddening what you're about to see in this video is exactly how wealthy rich hedge funds institutions and suits screw all of us by turning us into their pawns and ripping us off out of millions to billions of dollars this stuff ought to be investigated and people like this should be in jail take a listen to this scenario here folks it's march of 2020 the start of the real pandemic in markets we knew covet was coming as of late january but the real panic really started in march of 2020 and what you're about to listen to is a clip from march 18th this date is really important march 18th of 2020.
all right ready for this we're going to listen to about 30 seconds of this i'm going to jump to various different spots just so you have a little bit of an understanding of what bill ackman said on march 18th what he was doing at the time what he then did and what he's got to say for us today get into this shady ridiculousness you ready for this here we go ah let's put it on single speed because it's worth listening to in single speed all right here we go though want to bring in bill ackman on the phone he took to twitter today to urge the president to take more dramatic measures to stop the spread of the virus bill i thank you for joining us today thank you scott a number of of ideas you put forth i'm going to read one of them for our viewers to start mr president the only answer is to shut down the country for the next 30 days and close the borders you say tell all americans that you are putting us on an extended spring break at home with family keeping only essential services open the government pays wages until we reopen i know from our conversations that you have been worried for some time how did it manifest today with these tweets and going public maybe just a little bit of context you know i'm an optimist um but beginning in i don't know late january i was getting increasingly bearish and all right so i'm going to pause it here remember what he just or what was just said the president needs to act more tough the president needs to shut down pay everyone's wages bring the economy to a complete halt shut everything down for 30 days to slow the spread he's an optimist but all of a sudden he's extremely bearish oh my gosh everything's going terrible in fact things are going to be so bad we are going to be in a new era listen to what the era sounds like we're going to be in here you go for a period in the country rejected we will go a vaccine is manufactured distributed and injected we will go through a depression era period in the country and millions of people will die around the globe and is so in other words until we have a vaccine we're going through a depression era period keep in mind in march we thought vaccines would take years to manufacture now we're not going to debate about the efficacy of what we ended up getting in the short time frame that we ended up getting it we're not going to debate that we all know what happened to the market but the point is first president shut down everything for 30 days bring the economy to zero but keep in mind we're going through a depression not for the next 30 days we're going through a depression for the next years until we get a vaccine was his message in march but wait folks what does he say about the hotels let's listen to what he says about the hotels and how low they're going and and what do you think the lowest is the stock price can go listen to this look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't know many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company in the world you know park hotels and resorts this you know stocks down from 33 to four it's going to zero listen to the cnbc anchor reiterate this this is a spin off from hilton why is it down from 33 to 4 because every hotel is going to be shut down in the country everyone hang on hang on just one second um you say hilton is going to zero i mean again i'm a major shareholder what i'm saying is if we allow this to continue the way we allow it to continue okay every hotel company in the world okay is done okay because listen to this this okay so wait a minute we're at the start of a depression era that's going to last years unless the president shuts us down for 30 days to slow the spread and uh and we bring our economy to zero but uh or our gdp to zero but even if we do that we still have to wait years for the vaccine to use the messaging he he shares and hotels are going to zero everything's going to zero it's all going to zero okay so what was happening at the same time bill ackman was on this call well folks bill ackman was actively shorting the market he was substantially shorting the market in fact he took out 27 million dollars in credit default swaps far out of the money credit default swaps and just five days later on march 23rd the market hits rock bottom and guess what bill ackman does just five days later bill ackman warned hell is coming because of virus he then pocketed two billion dollars in bets against the market this article posted wednesday the 25th two days after the bottom market after the bottom market and two days after he closed his bearish bets and was able to cheer hey guys we did it we opened up a bunch of shorts we went on told everybody about how hell is coming how a depression era is coming that's going to last years that hotels are going to zero and unless the president shuts down the economy and brings it to zero for 30 days we're all screwed and even if he does we'll probably screw it anyway right after that pockets two billion dollars 100xing has bet against the market after the fear he perpetuated and this was widely circulated and it all began with his tweets okay so folks what's happening right now what's this effort this manipulating douchebag doing today take a look at this folks what kind of fear do we have today we don't have coronavirus fears we have fears over the fed and oh my gosh if we tighten the market's going to go to zero right if we tighten and and the federal reserve raise rate raises rates we're screwed that's the fear we have right now and the fear is because oh my gosh well inflation is so bad right and inflation if inflation is worsening that the federal reserve's going to have to uh continue to to tighten and uh raise rates and and that's it our economy is going to zero we're screwed we're done uh it's it's over look at this folks while i am filming this video here's someone on cnbc warning for big tech investor c 50 plus plunge oh my gosh more sell-offs right when in the meantime thank you so much to course member mama for sharing this chart here this is what the market usually does when we have a rate hike and rate tightening cycle take a look at this the average market response during a rate cut cycle is a return of about 23 to 32 percent and during rate hike periods of time we tend to see a return of somewhere between 54 to 102 returns on average so in other words the market actually outperforms during rate hike cycles compared to rate cut cycles which is absolutely mind-blowing but forget about that for a moment forget about that potential historical reality let's just look forward for a moment what is bill ackman telling us what is this this uh hedgy suit telling us well let's take a look folks here we go bill ackman january 15th while it has become conventional wisdom that the federal reserve will raise rates three to four times this year to mitigate inflation the market expects a 25 basis point increment 0.25 percent increase in rates the unresolved elephant in the room is the loss of the federal reserve's perceived credibility as inflation as an inflation fighter and whether three to four rates would therefore be enough rate hikes would therefore be enough the federal reserve could work to restore its credibility with an initial 50 basis point move to shock and awe the market which would demonstrate the fed's resolve on inflation the fed is losing the inflation battle and is behind where it needs to be with the painful economic consequences for the most vulnerable a 50-point basis point initial move would have the reflexive effect of reducing inflation expectations which would moderate the need for more aggressive and economic pain economically painful steps in the future just a thought just a thought oh don't mind me shorting the crap out of the market basically put it and we don't know we don't know we're just guessing that he's probably doing the same thing he did in 2020 but he's basically putting his thumb in a wound going yeah you like that you like that feeling of more pain how about some more pain huh how about some more pain while he's squeezing out cash out of the market and robbing you blind from behind taking all the money out of your mar out of your wallet this guy in my opinion should be investigated if he's shorting the market right now he's a freaking fraud now he's able to make money but he's doing so stealing from people and that is the scummiest form of capitalism that i believe exists in this world but folks what's actually happening with the market's inflation expectations because bill ackman is implying that inflation expectations are going through the roof well wait a minute let's see what the bond market is doing we know that treasury yields are going up but there's actually a measure called the treasury break-even rates and this is when we subtract treasury yields on let's say a 10 or a five-year from the ten or five-year treasury inflation-protected security so that way we can establish what does the market think inflation is likely going to be like or what are market and expectations for inflation even though treasury yields are going up take a look at what's happening to treasury expectations to inflation expectations folks nothing we are lower than where we were in october and november in terms of inflation expectations we are lower and we have had absolutely no spike here in january that has lasted beyond this little spike right here we've had nothing that's lasted in 2022 so far meaning the market is actually not pricing in more inflation expectations the market's falling quite frankly because the market's falling and because hedge funds and institutions and suits are making money shorting the crap out of this market under the fear that all of a sudden the fed hiking rates is such a bad thing and that inflation expectations are going through the roof when that is not true inflation expectations are not going through the roof the bond market is telling that to us loud and clear instead it's scumbags like this trying to shake out the weak hands out of the market and rob people blind by putting pressure and pain where i don't belong because they're scumbags who aren't transparent with their positions and this is why i am a hundred percent transparent with absolutely everything i do in my portfolio if you join my stocks in psychology of money program you will learn to think like i do when it comes to the market and to me this is a signal of the freaking bottom this is a signal of the bottom be careful with margin but i am bullish on this market i'm not going anywhere i'm not effin leaving if you want to see exactly what i'm doing you want to learn about my psychology check out the links in the description down below for building your wealth no matter what market we're in i'm on your side and i'm here with that the market is open the next one goodbye oh and use that coupon code within the next uh like 10 days because it does expire then the price goes up full transparency the price goes up
Comments 0