저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 하락 12가지 이유를 제시. 나스닥 종목 과반이 고점 대비 50% 하락한 점, 은행 실적상 인플레이션 압력, 재고 증가와 에너지 비용 상승, 소비지출 둔화, 러시아-우크라이나 긴장, 채권금리 상승과 연준 긴축 기대, 소비자심리 저하, 옴이크론 이동량 감소, 주택판매 급감, 헤지 증가, 독일 GDP 역성장 등을 근거로 제시. 과거 1998~1999년 유사 국면과 2000년 버블 붕괴를 언급하며 경계 신호로 해석.
다듬은 글
review 12 reasons why the market is falling we're gonna go through each one independently and share some facts and opinions let's get right into it right after i mentioned that this video is brought to you by titan but more on them in a moment you can see a link for them right down in the description next to the links for the programs on building your wealth and of course a sign up link where you can sign up to learn about any potential future funds that i might announce by going to medkevin.com cashflow check out those links down below okay number one scary bubble market indicator folks 36 of nasdaq stocks are down 50 from their highs in november the nasdaq is down 8 from its highs in november usually when the nasdaq goes down by 10 only about 12.5 percent of stocks are down 50 so the fact that three times as many stocks are down 50 percent is potentially a bad sign this means that really mega caps are the ones keeping the index up and that faster growing smaller companies are getting wrecked under higher interest rate fees and unfortunately this could usher in a quote cyclical bear market where we see indice declines of at least 20 percent from the records set in the last few months since 1972 there have only been 39 days though where the nasdaq was within 10 of highs and 35 percent of its members were down 50 that is out of the last 50 years there have only been 39 days in the past where the nasdaq has been down roughly 10 and 35 or a third of the members are down 50 which is what we're experiencing now and folks all of those days happened in 1998 and 1999 right before the bubble pop of 2000.
now there's a lot of pain a lot of pain in the micro cab sector so who knows maybe this is just isolated to micro caps and shorting but it's not a very positive sign all right that's market reason for pain number one number two bank earnings first a city reports that corporate client balance sheets are very strong that there is a lot of liquidity on both consumer and corporate sides and that a lot of business investment is being conducted a lot of capex spending especially to streamline supply chains the issue however is that we are in an era of unprecedented and unanticipated demand and as a result shortages this comes at the same time as consumers have low delinquencies and high payment rates on debts and citi is seeing positive deposit growth despite a reduction in stimulus this all was actually relatively positive from city that we did see trading and loan revenues decline this is similar to what we saw at wells fargo and jp morgan in fact wells fargo reported that there is a huge amount of corporate liquidity in the system and available they also say that there is 30 to 35 percent more money in individuals accounts for all wealth levels than prior to qua than prior to coven but and this is the downside and this is the part that's really weighing on the market wells fargo says that inflation is very real prices are up for most that businesses have the most pricing power that they've ever seen and that really labor and wage shortages are just contributing to the issue jp morgan reiterated this sort of inflation as well going as far as saying they will pay whatever it takes to attract the best talent goldman sachs just paid out massive bonuses to their top one percent of workers to retain their best talent jp morgan goes on to say that wage inflation is real and that we should expect higher inflation for 2022 in fact we're regularly seeing revisions up on inflation estimates the big issues here folks more inventories are not actually at the moment helping reduce inflation they're helping increase inflation this is quite wild because the kathy woodyan argument is that as we have more inventories businesses will have to cut prices to get rid of those inventories and actually move product but the flip side is that as businesses continue to build up their inventories what happens you end up putting more pressure on manufacturers leading to more inflation and supply chain constraints now trying to prevent getting quote burned by businesses is what's inducing this sort of spending on more inventories because businesses do not want to be caught flat-footed without the appropriate levels of inventory j.p morgan is expecting less deposit growth but the theme of these three banks is very simple defaults on loans very low and people have money but because defaults are low and people have money and people are able to get more credit if they want to which means they have more money to spend we are seeing people willing to pay higher prices and this is leading to the cycle of inflation continuing so we're in this sort of weird place where we have higher profits lower delinquencies but all at the expense of prices going up now goldman sachs recommends that now is the time for investors to check out financial stocks energy stocks and material companies as these might be the best suited for hedges against inflation now let's talk about these business inventories and this is the third problem but first a message from our sponsor titan link below y xero fees business inventories were announced today to have jumped 1.2 percent in november now business inventories are usually a sign of an expanding economy adding to gdp however the fear now is inflation as businesses continue to stock up on these inventories now two months in a row of inventories increasing we are seeing more pressure on supply chains which is then getting compounded by omicron pressuring supply chains so ironically as business inventories go up and that should be good for gdp and should be good for potentially prices going down right now prices are going up before they come down this is also true in the energy sector and this is the number four reason for why the market is having such issues blackrock says that the number one investment opportunity going forward is investing in new technologies especially around the green economy now this came from the blackrock earnings report and they mentioned that new technologies are going to help accelerate the transition to green but the problem is as until we actually have the innovations that we need in the green space we can actually see the prices of green energy go up rather than down and it comes at the same time that so far year to date in the last just two weeks since the year is only two weeks new oil is up ten percent this year natural gas is up seven to twenty percent depending on which type aluminum nickel and iron ore are all up over five percent just in the last two weeks and while some of this could be due to trading these moves are perpetuating fears that prices will keep going up that energy costs will keep going up and that green the green energy revolution can't keep up because of price ceilings and the time it takes for new technology to actually help bring green energy costs down so in other words we might be dealing with high fossil fuel costs but also high green energy costs and this is a potential negative catalyst because as you look around and you see that all opportunities for energy prices are going up your opportunity to to lower inflationary pressures actually goes down so in other words more energy costs both in the green and hydrocarbon space more inflation now one potential diversifier here is investing into something like the crane shares global carbon strategy etf they bet on carbon futures which is similar to having like call options on the price of carbon as the price of carbon goes up so should this fund no guarantees of course but anyway this fund was created in august of 2020 and it's up over 100 over the last 12 months it really is uh it really has been acting as a diversifier especially to uh sectors like big tech and uh and other aspects uh or higher growth sectors of the stock market which have been getting substantially punished uh so another issue to keep in mind higher energy prices hurting the market number five consumer spending so the headline here is really fud it's it's a sign of pain 1.9 decline in retail sales we were expecting a 0.1 percent decline so we had a big miss here 10 out of 13 categories declined that the only categories that were positive were home improvement health and personal care at miscellaneous stores all the others like clothing sporting goods food and services cars retail online retail electronics were all down online fell to most 8.7 not good for etsy etsy got burned a little bit in the stock market today etsy is now down over 20 year-to-date and we've only been on the market for two weeks here kind of crazy but anyway october november results were so strong uh though that uh if we look at q4 broadly q4 retail sales are still up 17.1 percent year over year problem is none of the headlines in the mainstream media are talking about how q4 retail sales are up 17.1 percent all they care about is that december is down 1.9 so uh unfortunately here uh er you know we we have fun uh now it's unlikely unlikely that inflation is actually what held back spending because people have more cash it's actually presently appearing that it's more likely that demand was just pulled forward to october and november rather than december as people wanted christmas gifts to actually arrive timely or holiday gifts to arrive timely either way this headline report is affecting the market quite negatively number six the russia and ukraine drama russia currently has 100 000 troops lined up next to ukraine with tanks and artillery ready npr interviewed a retired colonel who thinks that uh the odds of a russia invasion are 8 out of 10 with 10 being the most likely now look it either appears that russia here is saber-rattling or they're getting serious you do have the white house and democrats arguing that there are maybe uh false flag operations that could actually perpetuate the odds of an invasion in the ukraine uh the biden administration has gone as far as saying that russia is literally considering saboteurs to attack their own forces hence a false flag operation so that way russia can use this as evidence or a reason to end up attacking the ukraine now the white house didn't release details of this evidence but it seemed to be related to intercepting communications as well as drone or satellite observations to corroborate that information some are calling this foul this claim of a false flag misinformation itself especially some individuals on the right who are saying that of course the biden administration is saying that now the ukraine and russia are or well russia is setting up false flagging for uh you know operations because see the the 4d chess kind of level here argument would be okay well if uh the biden administration wants to downplay russia invading ukraine then maybe the biden administration could say something like oh well that catalyst for the war was just a false flag so that's not actually a legitimate invasion and so we're not gonna uh you know we're not gonna get involved on either side or something like that right uh it so really it's like who's right nobody knows military is a disaster but this uncertainty is certainly uh leading to more pain in the market as well especially since there was a cyber attack that just downed multiple government websites today uh the government of ukraine does say that there isn't there was no data leak just a crash probably a ddos attack here the us is advising that they're helping the ukraine deal with this remember folks this issue has been going on for quite a while uh not only with uh the ukraine going as far back as 2008 2009 but in 2014 you had the malaysian airlines a flight that killed 298 individuals because of a russian missile that was shot uh somewhere from the eastern border of the ukraine which is right next to russia uh and uh so there it's suspected that a russian warhead destroyed this passenger plane killing 298 aboard flying above the ukraine uh the same year by the way russia invaded crimea uh biden right now saying he will not send troops to defend the ukraine instead he's going to help reinforce military presence with uh nato this is a hotly debated uh mostly because ukraine is not part of nato but many say that the ukraine should be part of nato where an attack on one is deemed an attack on all anyway ukraine has been in civil war for a while so it's quite possible that's why they haven't gotten into nato okay reason number seven that we're seeing pain in the market right now is obviously bond yields rising bond yields rising on anticipation of the federal reserve uh actions of not only increasing interest rates but also uh limiting the stimulus that they are injecting into the economy reducing their bond purchases and then eventually they'll actually be vacuuming money out of the economy by removing money from the economy ultimately by selling bonds and then receiving cash in exchange for that removing this from the market it could actually and bloomberg expects this it could actually take until the end of 2023 though for tightening to actually begin because there's so much excess liquidity that banks have and you can see this by looking at the reverse repo market as explosion and access liquidity which makes sense because in the bank earnings reports we also had them talk about how they there's so much money around they might be pointing the finger at themselves uh reason number eight the market is falling consumer sentiment has fallen to 68.6 this is down from 70.6 and this is the lowest read in a decade worries about inflation and omicron or weighing on consumers now sometimes the consumer sentiment reading can actually be lagging that uh maybe maybe we're we're overdoing the fear but at least at the moment in terms of the release that that came out today uh consumer sentiment has fallen and you do have uh companies like fox news reporting that 70 of individuals in america are unhappy with the state of the economy in america today number nine omicron mobility uh we've obviously seen a massive decline in mobility data related to the omicron surge in fact if we take a look at mobility data we'll see that mobility has fallen so much substantially more than we had during the delta variance attack so delta was really a fall that we kind of saw around here there we go so around those green lines there those are about the changes that you saw during the delta variant actually not much not substantial changes in mobility whereas take a look at this tomtom congestion google mobility and apple mobility all moving down substantially more for omicron probably because so many more individuals are getting sick compared to what we saw with the delta variant this is really uh quite unprecedented now uh fortunately and we've been reporting this in the covet update videos we have been seeing an omicron flattening in cases in new york city so we're seeing some form of an affliction to the downside but still a lot of lingering fear and pain over omicron and what it might do for inflation consider the fact that a surging omicron could shut down supply chains in china or in america simply by people calling it sick not even necessarily with lockdowns and that is expected to of course slow supply progress number 10 reason the market is falling u.s home sales had their largest plunge falling 11 from a year earlier this is the biggest decline that we've seen since june uh availability of homes on the market fell by 19 leading to a 15 increase in the median home price year over year this is now the largest median home price that we've seen in quite a while 382 900.
number 11 shorts and hedges folks of people are so fearful in this market that the level of shorts puts and hedges against stocks throughout the stock market and selling to sitting cash on the sidelines has substantially increased it's not a surprise when prices go down folks tend to be motivated to want to hedge their portfolios generally the best time to hedge your portfolio is when prices are rising not when prices are declining but the most common time not the best time the most common time to hedge your portfolio is when the port when markets are going down because this is when fear comes out and this is when people continue to exacerbate the amount of short positions they have or put positions they have via options and this can in the short term accelerate declines on stocks especially if individuals believe that all of these catalysts are going to lead to a recession and potentially more pain for longer than hedging a portfolio is a potentially a wise decision number 12 germany's economy grew at just 2.7 percent last year but folks quarter four was a problem we saw negative gdp growth and a fall of between 0.5 to 0.1 percent i'm sorry 0.5 to 1 these are just the initial estimates for q4 that's why we don't have an exact yet but it looks like germany will be having a decline in gdp and q4 of somewhere between half percent and one percent and this could be because of lockdowns that came from delta or covid lockdowns for omicron but honestly what the market feels like right now is just a continuation of march 2020 over and over and over again as eventually maybe we get through this pandemic and we can try to go back to some semblance of normalcy but otherwise in the meantime we've got a pretty sad market right now a lot of fear and all of this fear is just reiterated by uh rising bond yields again a lot having to do with the federal reserve but you can see there are quite a few catalysts here for why the market is falling also the next time the federal reserve speaks will be january 25th to 26th that's their next meeting we'll expect a conversation from jerome powell on the 26th so we can get more insight from jerome powell directly anyway folks this is what's going on on in the market thank you so very much for being here make sure to check out titan
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