Stagflation, higher rates, market correction risk under Trump: Nouriel Roubini | The Business

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트럼프의 경제 공약을 그대로 이행하면 관세·이민 제한·재정적자 확대로 스태그플레이션 위험이 커진다. 미국 금리는 연준 인하 불가로 상승하고 채권금리도 오르며, 이는 글로벌 금리 상승과 성장 둔화로 번진다. 재정 지속 불가능성 때문에 시장(채권·주식)의 규율이 정책을 제약할 것이다. 주식시장은 조정을 받을 수 있다. 호주는 국내 성장 약세와 끈적한 인플레이션 속에서 금리 인하가 늦어질 수 있다고 본다.

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01. if he tries to follow these policies that are stationary interest rates are going to be much higher Bond going to be higher the FED will have to raise rates rather than cutting them the stock market is going to correct he cares about the bond market he cares about the stock market and therefore Market discipline as opposed to political discipline there is no political discipline because it controls the executive the Supreme Court the judges the Congress so the only discipline can come is Bond vigil and markets telling him that some of his policy are not going to be sustainable that's going to be the main constraint to not to follow silly policies so briefly can I just confirm that if Trump was to fulfill his Economic Policy platform to the letter that you would expect to see stagflation yeah especially the parts of the economic program that are stagflation is I pointed out the 60 tariffs exactly or restriction to migration or runaway budget deficit of course other of his program uh may increase economic growth like being pro business low taxes deregulation but uh the other ones will be stationary but you say that sense may prevail and that he may Implement changes in a more orderly fashion creating less volatility yes yes first his choice of the main economic advisors starting with the secret treasury may be important two if he's aware because he's advisor telling him that those risky policy are going to be punished with the stock market going down and bond is going higher those threats of Market discipline may lead him to not follow those policy in the first place but do you hold concerns about those appointments that have already been announced for instance today we have learned that a television host from Fox and Friends is to become the secretary of defense yes some of those choices uh seem sensible like Mark Rubio as secretary of state is certainly his expertise on foreign policy even if he a bit of a hawk on China but other ones like the recent choice of the head of the Pentagon seem to be given to somebody who is not really a military expert he has military experience but he doesn't have the seniority to run a usuge organization like the Department of Defense and it's also possible that the Senate may not confirm those appointments that are actually not serious and valuable in the event of stagflation what would that mean for Global interest rates and interest rates in an open economy such as Australia's well if us were to follow policies of the increasing inflation reduce economic growth uh interest rates will be higher in the United States both shter interest rates because the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates rather than cutting them and bond yelds are going to be higher because there's more inflation and real rates are higher because because the deficits are unsustainable uh that's dangerous for the rest of the world because High interest in the world imply that other countries have to follow the us if they don't follow the US their currency weaken so interest rates globally are going to be higher and that's going to crowd out growth globally of course tariff in the US cause inflation in the US but cause economic damage like less demand for the exports of other countries and that's deflationary and leads to less economic road for the rest of the world as well do you expect Australians will have to wait longer for interest rate Cuts as a result of trump gaining the keys to the White House once again um it it depends you know if we were to impose tariffs to reduce economic growth and inflation in Australia those tax cuts may be coming sooner but if Instead This policy lead to higher Global interest rates and then those interest rates go higher in Australia then you'll have furthering crowding out of economic growth I would say that most of the challenge of Australia are domestic growth is weak but inflation is sticky because probably the China shock implies lower growth but most of the growth now is deriving from demand coming from the public sector and that's leading to inflation to remain higher than otherwise so you need to do economic reform that lead to Greater productivity in the private sector rather than relying on the public sector in order to have a strong economic growth Australia's prime minister today has suggested that there is a role for Australia to mediate between the United States and China do you think that's feasible um well I would say that will make sense to try to find some degree of a manage strategic competition between us and China you're not going to get full cooperation but full confrontation will be damaging to the entire world not just to us in China and to Australia Australian is in a position where the economic links with China are still quite strong and they remain strong but also from a geopolitical of view is of course a friend and Ally of the United States uh you know your former prime minister Kevin rad has been Ambassador in Washington has been trying to educate the US political system and how to deal with China in a way that the thir China but doesn't lead to Greater confrontation so I think that some of the expertise of Australia in understanding China could be useful to try to find the bridge between us and China Nel reain terrific to have you on the program thank you great being with you today thanks e