저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중앙은행의 저금리·양적완화 정책이 누적된 문제를 키워 경기침체와 자산가격 하락(약세장)이 진행 중이며, 투자자는 수익 극대화보다 자본 보존에 집중해야 한다는 주장이다. [중앙은행 정책과 금리] - 1980~90년대부터 이어진 인위적 저금리와 돈 찍어내기로 문제를 미뤄왔고, 이제 금리를 올리면 경기가 무너지고 안 올리면 인플레이션이 가속되는 진퇴양난이라고 봄. - 미 연준은 0.5%p 인상 후 추가로 0.5%p 정도만 올릴 것으로 예상하며, 테일러 준칙상 적정 금리(9.81%)는 현실적으로 불가능하다고 주장. - 일본은 국채금리를 0.25% 수준으로 묶어두고 있어 엔화가 약세이며, 중앙은행 총재들을 '시장을 망가뜨리는 자들'로 강하게 비판. - 양적완화(QE)는 한번 시작하면 끝이 없는 무한 과정이라고 봄. [경기와 시장 전망] - 미국 1분기 GDP 감소, 주택담보대출 신청 감소, 세계 무역 위축, 실질 가처분소득 감소로 이미 글로벌 경기침체 국면이라고 진단. - 미국 주식 시장은 약세장이며, 나스닥은 2021년 11월 고점 대비 20% 이상 하락, 비트코인은 약 40% 하락. 미국 장기채는 고점 대비 30% 이상 하락. - 소수 대형주가 지수를 끌어올려 착시를 만들었을 뿐 나머지 995개 종목은 하락했다고 평가. - 메타·아마존·넷플릭스·구글·마이크로소프트·테슬라 등 빅테크는 아직 싸지 않다고 봄. - 밈주식은 60~80% 하락했고, ARK 혁신 펀드는 고점 대비 68% 하락. - 홍콩 주식은 장부가의 절반 수준으로 저평가. [자산별 견해] - 금: 귀금속이자 금융자산이라 최근 주식 하락 때 함께 하락. 귀금속은 포트폴리오 4대 축(부동산·현금/단기채·주식·귀금속) 중 하나로 보유. - 비트코인: 나스닥100과 높은 상관관계를 보여 분산투자 수단이 되지 못한다고 비판. - 원자재는 금융자산보다 하락폭이 적을 것으로 예상(호주 같은 자원국에 유리). - 가치주 선호, 기술주 비중 없음. [지정학과 기타] - 미국의 러시아 자산 동결과 아프가니스탄 외환보유고 동결을 비판하며, 중국 등 non-서방 국가들이 달러 보유를 재고할 것이라고 봄. 우크라이나 전쟁으로 세계가 둘로 나뉘었고 유럽은 자살행위를 하고 있다고 주장. - 투자 전략: 시장이 평균 50% 하락해도 본인은 10~20%만 하락하도록 자본 보존에 집중. 자신의 예측이 맞으면 모두 손실을 보게 된다고 언급. [리스크] - 금리 인상 시 경기 붕괴, 동결 시 인플레이션 가속이라는 양면 리스크. 과거 1970년대처럼 금리와 인플레가 예상보다 훨씬 더 오를 수 있음.
다듬은 글
mark faber welcome to the business well thank you for having me on your program mark warren buffett once said of contrarian investors they are to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful what are you right now greedy or fearful and why well i think that it may be a time where it's not appropriate to be particularly greedy i think we need to see that because of monetary policies that the central banks around the world have followed with artificially low interest rates and money printing and this started already in the late 1980s 1990s they've managed to kind of postpone problems instead of solving them for a very long time and to eliminate some risks in the markets that should have occurred earlier and so we have now a situation where the central banks are in a very difficult position because if they don't increase interest rates inflation will likely accelerate and if they increase interest rates at the time gdp in the first quarter in the us was down and the mortgage applications and so forth the many economic indicators that are down world trade is down the geopolitical situation and you know this very well from australia regarding the solomon islands is not favorable do we have in essence a trade war and so many things are not conducive to high equity valuations okay now if you look at the whole equity market of course there are stocks that are like the fung stocks in america the index is now down more than 30 percent from the november highs but there are other stocks that are very inexpensive like if you look at hong kong shares hong kong shares are selling at half book value it's an extremely critical week for central banks some have already started raising rates many more are poised to move what do you think the u.s will increase by this week and how far will the fed keep going it's a very good question because i don't think they can increase interest rates very much otherwise the system collapses ditto in japan in japan you have an even worse situation but i can tell you say we have an american in economies uh john taylor is a professor in stanford and he established a rule where say short-term rates should be in order to maintain a stable economic financial system according to that rule the fed fund should be at nine point eight one percent the whole world is bankrupt if the federal rate goes to nine percent so i think the fed will increase rates by half a percent and then maybe another half a percent you see the problem now is this in the recession of 2001 2003 the bear market in the great financial crisis 2000 2008 until march 2009 during those bear markets and also in the covet crisis february march 2020 during these stock bear markets interest rates went down and bonds rallied so investors offset some of their stock losses respond rallies now the bond market it's down the long-term bond market is down more than 30 percent in the us from the peak in 2021 and therefore people have actually large losses on stocks plus the the young people all invested in meme stocks packs that's of course the most speculative sector these stocks are down like 60 percent 80 percent the ark innovation fund which was the kind of the most popular investment fund among aggressive investors is down 68 from the high so is there any danger that they'll be overreached from the fed and rates might move too high and stifle growth well i think because i started to work in 1970s so you can imagine how old i am but in the 70s nobody expected inflation to accelerate as much as it did and when i started to work in 1970 the 10-year treasury in the u.s was at six percent it then went to over 15 percent you understand these moves both inflation and interest rates can go much further than is expected nobody in the whole world expected ever to have negative interest rates in the world we had that never in history before in the 5 000 years of recorded history where interest rates this low as they were in 2020 2021 that is a huge manipulation by central banks and now the market has called them bluff and they are in a difficult position but they're in a difficult position because of their mistakes do you expect there to be a contagion effect when the u.s starts to raise rates do you think it will force other central banks around the world to do the same well in japan they don't want because they know the country's bankrupt you say the jgb rate the government bond rate goes to 2 so they keep it at 0.25 but in economics when you intervene there is something that will break so the yen bro the yen has been very weak and in in europe lagarde who is the president of the ecb all these people are criminals in my opinion because they destroy the purchasing power of ordinary people ordinary people with low salaries and high taxes they suffer the most and the rich people they can hedge they can change their money in other currencies and so forth and so on this opportunity is not given to the lower and the and the middle class and therefore i have a very very low opinion of central bankers around the world hey they don't know much about economics at all because they haven't worked already the classical economist they all deal with abstruse theories that they invented in the last 10 years to see to justify their interventions into the free market so mark do you think given we're about to see central bank rate rises this will mark the end of quantitative easing for good around the world well i think that it would be best for the world to probably take a recession now and try to clean up the system somehow whether they can clean it up entirely that i doubt but if they continue say if the fed increases the fed fund rate to one one and a half percent and then they realize the economy i think the economy is already in a recession globally because when world trade contracts and when disposable income in real terms collapse in real terms means adjusted for inflation then you're in recession and when the government and the central banks will realize that they are in recession and the stock market and the bond market crash has already had a huge wealth impact on most people and on pension funds now the pension rates are in trouble so they were in ease again in my opinion when they started qe1 that was the announcement was in december 2008 they asked me on tv when do you think they will take this back i said once you embark on qe1 it's a continuous process and it will be q infinity if i can move on to tech stocks uh now you mentioned those earlier they're taking a hit the nasdaq's down 25 in six months do you expect this trend to continue and do you think they're leading the way for other indexes well the tech stocks we have to define which ones you know some tech stocks are down 80 90 percent and that the market is now oversold so they could rally somewhat but uh the fun stocks facebook amazon netflix google and microsoft tensor force and tesla some of these stocks are not cheap yet they may be down 50 or so but they're not yet cheap so mark do you think that we're heading for a global stock market correction or a crash well i think we are in a bear market period if you look at stocks in europe they're all down in asia they've most stock markets are down from 2015 and if you adjust it especially for the us dollar because you have to kind of decide in what currency do i want to value my stocks so you can value it everything in us dollars in that case most markets around the world have been in bear markets but this is the beauty of markets not many people understand the market because the market can hide when you have say a thousand stocks in the stock market and five go up then these five stocks can drive the index up and everybody thinks oh the market is strong and 995 stocks are down this is what has happened in the us the handful of stocks that drove the market to a new high for the nasdaq uh november 22nd and for the s p peaked out on january 4th of this year but the rest of the market was down a lot already mark you wrote in one of your recent reports that we may be at the beginning of a slope of hope gradual decline in asset prices that will decimate the most popular sectors how do you think this will play out well i think that you know australia is a resource rich country and i would expect commodities to decline less than say financial assets let's say if i look at gold gold is a resource is a is a precious metal it's a monetary asset but it's also an industrial commodity to some extent but gold shares are a financial asset so in this market route recently when the stock market went down gold shares actually also went down a lot because there are financial assets you know people say oh i diversify i buy bitcoins well bitcoins correlates very closely with the nasdaq 100.
the nasdaq 100 peaked on november 22nd 2021 last year bitcoin on november 26th since then the nasdaq is down more than 20 and bitcoins is down almost 40 so what's in your portfolio now and how should investors approach the next year where do you think the value can be found i buy value stocks i'm not in technology uh i have essentially four sectors in my portfolio one is real estate and then i have cash and short-term bonds for the yield and i have equities and i have precious metals and they are diversified so as an individual i think if you look at what has happened that the us can go and expropriate russian oligarchs then i say to myself oh one day they may come and say oh we expropriate the swiss another day they can go and say we expropriate the australians and so forth and so on i think this is a very negative development and also like the freezing of the foreign change reserves of afghanistan afghanistan if you look at videos is a dirt poor country and you're stealing four billion dollars from them the little they have is a complete disastrous policy it's vicious and then you look at the reserves of russia they've frozen these reserves chinese say oh okay they freeze the reserves of russia we better do something about our reserves the the war in ukraine has picked the world in two parts what they call everybody is 12 of the population in the world america western europe the vassals in europe australia and canadian all vassals of the us and the rest of the world is 88 includes india china indonesia brazil all these countries they think now twice about having their reserves in u.s dollar i think the ukraine war will be very costly for the western world is a suicide for europe the suicide and finally mark should the main aim of investors now be preservation of capital i agree with you 100 for the last 20 years or so the idea was always to maximize your profits if you understand to outperform someone in australia i follow all those fund managers all what there was talk how this one is performing that was before how have they performed lately very badly and i think as an investor in the current situation you should say to yourself whatever i have i want to invest in such a way that if mark is right and we have this implosion in asset prices from real estate to stocks to bonds to everything if mark is right i want to be among them who loses the least so if the market say is down on average by 50 i want to be down by just 10 20 percent this is the strategy in my view that this is the strategy that i follow we will all lose money if things turn out the way i think mark farber thank you you're welcome thank you very much for having me on your program you
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