저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 미국 주식시장이 '슈퍼 버블'의 마지막 단계에 있으며 폭락이 이미 시작됐거나 임박했다고 봄. 버블 판단 근거: 11년 강세장(역사상 최장), 강세장 말기 평균의 약 3배 속도로 나스닥 2배 이상 상승, 투기주가 먼저 꺾이는 2000년형 패턴. 나스닥 종목의 약 40%가 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락. 전망: 시장 전체가 최소 50% 하락할 가능성이 높고, 투기주는 그보다 더 크게 떨어질 수 있음. 다만 하락이 급격할지 느리게 진행될지는 불확실. 개인 투자자의 저점 매수 자금이 많아 저항이 있을 수 있음. 금리·인플레이션: 시장이 인플레이션을 무시하고 있으나 이는 기업이익률·인플레이션 두 요인으로 주가수익비율을 설명하는 모델과 어긋남. 노동 부족과 임금 상승으로 연준이 금리를 상당폭 올려야 할 것으로 봄. 정부도 인플레이션 억제를 강하게 원할 것. 투자 전략: 미국 고품질 주식 선호, 미국 밖 저평가 국가·신흥국 선호(원자재는 혼합적), 현금 보유, 저평가 종목 탐색. 과도한 FOMO 경계. 자산별 견해: 디지털자산(비트코인 포함)은 가치 저장 수단이 아닌 허상에 가깝다고 평가. 금은 수천 년간 안정적이었다고 언급. 호주 주식은 비싸지 않지만 싸지도 않다는 평가. 부동산은 전 세계적으로 매우 높다고 봄. 기업 구조: 빅테크(FANG)의 독점적 지위 강화로 이익률은 높지만 성장에는 불리하고, 정부 규제 움직임이 나타나고 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
it's crossed off all the boxes it's done all the things that a super bubble typically does and it could uh start its way down any time and perhaps a month ago so what are all the things a super bubble needs to do well it needs a long bull market and we had 11 years so the longest in history it needs a lot of crazy behavior and we had some of the great crazy behavior of all time i think they'll be telling these stories in 20 years it needs to accelerate at the end of a bubble uh something like three times the average rate of the bull market and it did that from covert on outwards the nasdaq more than doubled and it went up at well over three times the normal rate and and finally a thing that is unique to the super bubbles the two or three that just keep going and going is that at the end the speculative stocks start to peel off and even on the upside for the broad market they start to go down and that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and as we said today something like 40 of all the nasdaq stocks are down over 50 percent which is pretty amazing since it's only the other day the s p was at its all-time high in late december so does that mean the bubble has begun to burst nothing is certain in life but i would say that is the beginning of the burst when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market uh go down as the market goes up so the s p went up 25 last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks of 2020 were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the tech wipeout so you're saying we are at the beginning of a crash i would say it is likely that we are what will be the wealth effect of this how much money do you anticipate people will lose i i think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50 from its peak the broad market the s p and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that the problem is is it slow or is it quick the stimulus program left a lot of money in individual hands for buying the dip and they have been throwing money this year individuals at the dips they have probably never invested more uh rapidly than they have this year and despite that of course the market is down but they have a lot of money they're pretty well funded corporations many corporations are doing well the economy isn't too bad so this could be turned out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to readjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation it will not give up i suspect too easily but we'll fight it out and do you expect we'll see similar falls in australian stocks yeah if you look at the real estate market all real estate markets pretty well around the world are very very high but if you and if you look at the bond market of course interest rates are incredibly low and bond are incredibly high but when it comes to the stock market rather like 2000 and the tech bubble this is more an american affair than anything else outside america the world is merely overpriced ho-hum it's often overpriced it's not that usually not that dangerous in the u.s however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and i think um we're in a a rather dangerous equity bubble so there is a decent chance that australia the uk japan there's some fairly reasonably priced countries uh will if if they come down in sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally earlier well jeremy gmo called the dot-com bubble in 2000 the gfc in oa it's what makes this a super bubble and how's it different to the past this bubble in the u.s is eerily similar to the 2000 uh tech bubble it's led by the nasdaq it's led by the specs 2 000 the specs underperformed all year and the s p continued to climb um it is just possible that the s p will rally to a new high i think it is impossible that the specs will so i think the game has started and it will play out perhaps rather like a 2000.
how is the global inflation picture contributing to the environment historically the stock market has hated inflation it crushes price earnings ratios this time uniquely it did not inflation started june of last year roared through the roof and the peas continued to widen to rise nothing like that had happened before we have a model that goes back to 1925 and there are two factors that determine price earnings ratios or the price level of the market one of them is profit margins of course it loves them and the other is inflation of course it hates it and they have worked like a charm and in 2000 you had for example at the top of the market world record profit margins and very little inflation and today we have world record profit margins but we have rather high inflation the market should have dropped starting in the middle of last year had it been following uh the normal battle plan it did not the market is saying about inflation that it totally ignores it it completely believes the fact that it's uh temporary ephemeral etc and it doesn't appear to be and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the price earnings ratios do you think the fed is becoming more and more concerned about inflation particularly given the past reading yes i do and i know the administration does and in the end the fed doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically inflation is death the average person in the street notices it measures it if anything exaggerates it but even with that exaggeration it's painful and politically very very uh tough on on on the voting pattern and therefore the administration really wants uh to do everything it can to get inflation down so it will be discreetly leaning on the fed to do what it can so what's your expectation of how the fed will approach rates over the near term you know there there are people who spend their entire lives watching the fed and going into the nuances of quarter points and half points and i do not i i am confident that they will move uh at the stronger end of the range i am confident they will try very hard to make sure that inflation does not become embedded i'm also confident that that will be difficult because we're very short of labor we're running very scarce and wage rates will start to come through the system in the us uh increasingly for the next few months that makes it very difficult to control inflation so it will be quite a struggle and the fed will have to raise the rates quite a bit so the big question jeremy is what should investors be doing against this backdrop of super bubbles what assets should they be owning if you if you have to own u.s stocks you should earn high quality stocks that are in good financial shape because this can always spiral in to something of a financial crisis they often do i would emphasize in general though non-us stocks and quite a few countries as i said are not that bad emerging markets has some overhang problems if the us goes and commodities are high priced it's a mixed blessing at best for them but they're very very cheap and in the end cheapness usually trumps everything else so emerging markets some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much better idea than a massive holding of u.s equities and what about aussie equities have you seen any good buying opportunities here i i'm not an expert on australian equities it doesn't look cheap but it doesn't look horrific we're entering this period of rising rates and inflation we're seeing labor shortages and potentially reduced growth is this the goldilocks period over i think it is ending i'm trying to write a paper which is basically the end of the golden era or goldilocks and and three hungry bears um it's um everything has been different for the 20 years of the 21st century the pe is averaged not just a little bit higher but 50 60 percent higher profit margins averaged 30 35 percent higher than they had in the previous 50 60 years uh everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power the taxes on capital all dropped tax on dividends tax on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the uh most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and they have had a golden era we've never seen bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic feature of of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and the governments are beginning to twitch a bit what's your view on digital assets jeremy should everyone hold some no i i don't think their assets i think they embed a technology that may turn out rather like the internet to be useful here there and everywhere and when they are useful and when they're making money in the traditional way um then you value it like any other money making enterprise but while they just sit there and they go up in price uh because people are persuaded that they will go up in price it's very much a question of the emperor and his clothes i think uh bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody and is superseded by a whole generation of smarter and and more effective uh cryptocurrencies many of which in their turn do not make money in the traditional way and a few do so i'm sure the idea um embedded in cryptocurrency will be around for perhaps forever but i'm equally certain that most of the value uh today as a store of value is a hoax it is not a store of value everyone can agree that the volatility is massive it goes up and down with the high risk stocks what is the point of a store of value that trades like a hyperspec i mean this is not this is not the principle gold in comparison uh with several thousand years of practice has been uh boringly stable throughout the last couple of years i should know i earned some so finally jeremy if we have begun this u.s equities crash what hope can you give investors for the period ahead uh stay out of trouble make sure you don't buy expensive markets expensive stocks emphasize value cheapness for what you get hunt around for the cheaper countries hunt around for the cheap cheaper stocks within those countries carry some cash reserves there'll be perhaps some very nice buying opportunities and um whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist being there done that myself a few decades ago made a fortune and wiped myself out very salutary and i i would wish on most of you that you avoid it jeremy grantham thank you yeah it's a pleasure thank you bye-bye you
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