저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
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글로벌 경기침체와 스태그플레이션, 부채위기가 겹친 '퍼펙트 스톰'이 올해 올 가능성이 높으며, 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아오지 않은 상태에서 미국·유럽 등 선진국이 침체에 들어갈 것이라는 전망이다. [경기침체·스태그플레이션 전망] 선진국 대부분(일본 제외)이 경기침체에 빠질 확률이 50% 이상이며, 인도는 양호하고 중국은 제로코로나 해제로 성장이 일부 회복되나 신흥국 성장은 크게 둔화된다고 봄. [금리·중앙은행] 연준 기준금리는 6% 이상까지 올라야 2% 물가목표 달성이 가능하나, 6% 인상 시 경착륙과 금융시장 붕괴가 예상되어 중앙은행이 결국 후퇴(blink)할 것으로 봄. 그 결과 물가 기대가 탈앵커링되어 물가는 중간 한 자릿수 상단에 머무를 것이라 전망. [공급충격·원자재] 중동 전쟁(이스라엘-이란) 가능성, 중국 리오프닝에 따른 원자재 수요 증가, 에너지·그린메탈 투자 부족으로 원자재 가격이 급등할 수 있다고 봄. 골드만삭스는 올해 원자재 지수가 43% 오를 것으로 예측하며, 유가는 최악의 경우 배럴당 200달러까지 가능하다고 언급. [부채·금융위기] 선진국 부채는 GDP의 약 420%로 고부채 상태여서 고금리가 지속되면 부채 상환이 불가능해지고 기업·가계 부도와 금융위기로 번질 수 있다고 경고. [생활·고용 영향] 스태그플레이션은 실업 증가와 실질임금 하락이 동시에 나타나 근로자에게 최악이라고 설명. [투자 전략] 주식과 장기채가 함께 하락하는 상관관계 양(+)의 전환으로 60/40 전통 포트폴리오가 실패한다고 진단. 대안으로 금, 물가연동채, 단기채, 실물자산(부동산) 제시. [주식시장 전망] 올해 주식시장은 계속 하락할 것이라 전망. 1~2월 랠리는 물가 하락·금리 인하 기대에 따른 것이었으나, 최근 물가 지표가 끈적해 다시 조정 중이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
I do believe that this speculation requires is gonna emerge this year uh the latest numbers on inflation coming from the US and Europe and other advanced economies show that inflation now is quite sticky but price and wage inflation we still have a number of negative aggregate supply shocks and central banks are in a dilemma because they have to raise rates more to fight inflation but if they do so the economy is going to start to contract quite soon and if they don't then you could have a the anchoring of inflation and inflation expectation um so I expect that we're gonna have a recession in the US in Europe in other advanced economies at the time where inflation is not back to two percent that's a definition of a stipulation recession and inflation well above Target what probability would you put on a global recession led by the U.S well I would say it's certainly more than 50 percent um covered on global recession U.S and Europe are going to have a outright economic contraction uh some countries like India are going to do okay China is going to have some pickup of growth because they're eliminating their zero Kobe policy so there'll be a recession in most advanced economies maybe with exception of Japan and a sharp slowdown of growth in the average emerging market or developing countries inflationary expectations appear to be rising the 10-year U.S treasury yield jumped back over four percent overnight do you think the U.S fed can get on top of inflation with a 5.1 percent cash rate or will it have to go higher saying to six well the markets for now are not pricing in yet six percent I think that the FED funds already will have to be um certainly above six percent to achieve a two percent inflation Target but if you raise interest rates to six percent then you're gonna have a real hard Landing then you'll have also a crash in financial markets you'll have a severe correction of equity markets you'll have bundle going higher you'll have the credit spreads for borrowing by the private sector Rising so you'll have a severe financial distress that financial distress is going to make the recession more severe and a more severe recession by having a contraction of income and output is going to increase the number of defaults by household businesses corporates and even some financial institutions and some governments in poor countries that have serious debt problems so there will be a another negative feedback between a more severe economic contraction leading to a worse financial crash in a worse financial crash leading to a more severe economic contraction the that's where I believe that eventually the fed and other central banks are gonna wimp out and blink because face will be increasing interest rates that causes both a hard landing and a financial crash we're going to decide that they cannot do it but once they that realization occurs you'll have a d anchoring of inflation expectation the wage price patterns are going to become more severe and inflation is not going to reach the two percent Target of Central Bank is going to be somehow higher in the mid single digits so essentially what you're saying is economies and populations are going to have to live with higher inflation how high well in the 70s when they went out we had double digit inflation this time around we might not get to double digits unless there is a major geopolitical shock in the 70s here at the war between Israel and Arab states and the Iranian Revolution that Spike all prices I think that markets are underestimating how this year maybe Israel May strike Iran because Iran is becoming a threshold nuclear state if that were to occur and the flow of oil out of the gulf is Amber for a few months then you could have all prices going to 200 per barrel it'll have a shock like in the 70s but you know in the 70s where these stagflationary shock coming from oil that cause inflation a recession but that ratio in advance economies were only 100 per GDP today is 420 percent of GDP The Improv and public debt so in this case if we have those shocks to say all prices not only get inflation not only get recession and speculation but you get what they call a great declaration rate that crisis because with interest rates so high then debt relations become unsustainable today we have the worst of the 70s in terms of a variety of negative Supply shocks but that ratio are even worse than after the global financial crisis when we had the debt problem but we did not have an inflation problem so that time there was deflation or low flation now we're facing the perfect storm inflation recession stagflation and the potential of that crisis well is there very fast reopening of China going to help Supply meat demand and curtail inflation or are there other factors now at Play there are other factors you know even under zero code with policy China was Able by having some production bubbles to maintain production and experts so I think the impact of that zero copy policy on uh inflation was limited but now that China is going to open up if they're going to try to grow say five percent this year as opposed to two three last year their demand for commodity is going to rise whether it's industrial metal green Metals oil natural gas and that increase in the demand by China together with bottlenecks in Supply because there has been massive under investment into new capacity for energy green Metals industrial metal could Spike up significantly commodity prices this year Goldman Sachs predicts that commodity prices Not Just Energy the entire government of them increased 43 percent this year this is even without a war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran if that spike in commodity prices occurs then headline inflation is going to be higher rather than lower and through second round effects core inflation has got to go higher rather than lower that would be one of the reasons why we're gonna have higher inflation at what Market expects and eventually our Landing what will a stagflationary environment feel like for the general population if it does come to pass you know when there is a recession incomes fall wages tend to fall and people lose jobs and lose income but when you have a recession with a low flation or deflation at least inflation is not eroding your purchase empowered when you have overheating of the economy and inflation is high maybe prices are rise in greater than wages like last year real wages are falling but at least you have jobs speculation is the worst because the loss of jobs unemployment weakness of the labor market and wages are growing less than inflation because yeah stack relation so you have a it's a across the board to even those who have a job to the real wages because price are rising more than wages and some people lose their jobs and their income so speculation is the worst of all words for workers and those who are having especially labor income and wages given the scenario you're painting how can investors insulate themselves from inflation Beyonce the traditional inflation hedge being gold Well normally the price of equities and the price of bonds are negatively correlated that's why some investment advisors 16 equities are more risky 14 safer bonds but that assumes that inflation is low and stable risk on risk of growth recession when Equity dual bonds the poorly vice versa but when inflation is rising like last year the discount factor for Equity is higher the long bond yields Equity fall and at higher volume means the price of the bond is lower so you lose money on your bond as well last year actually bond yields that Rose so much that you lost more money on your bonds than you did on risky assets like U.S and Global Equity so the correlation becomes positive so the traditional uh investment advice fails then you have to go to staff that can hedge against inflation one as you suggest is gold another one is inflation index bonds the third one is uh short-term bonds whose yield goes higher and you don't have the price impact that you get on long duration bonds the fourth one will be sustainable forms of real estate because real estate is in fixed Supply when there's inflation tends to be a good Edge against inflation better than equities so you have to think about the very different portfolio from the traditional 60 equities 40 safe bonds those safe bonds are not safe when inflation is higher and in this environment what's your outlook for Equity markets this year uh they will continue to go down last year they went down because we had inflation and Tighter monetary policy there was a rally in January and February of this year because Market expected inflation is going to drop like a stone Central Bank is going to stop hiking sooner and they're going to cut rates by the second half of the year but the recent prints on inflation in U.S and Europe suggests inflation is going to be persistent central banks like the FED may have to go all the way to six percent the market is already correcting Bond years are going back up again so again in the last few weeks you lose money on equities you lose money on bonds the correlation is still positive but bad because the price of boat is falling to losing money across the board in your traditional portfolios Muriel rabini thank you for making the time pleasure being with you today thank you
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