저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 12월 기준 전세계 중앙은행·정부가 약 11.5개월간 통화량의 20%를 새로 찍어냈다는 점을 짚고, 인플레이션이 화폐 가치를 떨어뜨리는 구조를 설명. 2021년 3~5월 기저효과로 인플레이션 헤드라인이 과장될 것이라 예고. 수요 급증·노동 부족·중앙은행 방만 등 인플레 3대 원인을 검토하며 현재는 노동 부족 효과가 2023~2024년 이후에나 나타날 것이라 봄. 경제학자들은 실질 인플레이션이 당장 오지 않을 것으로 보는 시각을 인용. 인플레 상황에서 주식·부동산이 물가를 상회하는 수익을 내는 경향이 있고, 저금리 장기 고정금리 대출을 활용하라고 조언. 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here for every 100 that exist today as of december 15 2020 governments and banks around the world created 20 out of thin air in just the last 11 and a half months this could be really bad so in this video we're going to talk about what this means for our money and how bad this actually might be but just keep in mind in the meantime that if you want to learn everything i know about building wealth make sure to check out the amazing programs down below i'm building your wealth with real estate or stocks or both together there's some great opportunities for you and love for you to be able to use that holiday bundle coupon code by emailing me at kevin meatkevin.com or just use the single purchase code in the description down below all right first let's talk about money and the biggest problem of facing it right now which is one of the reasons that people are fleeing to bitcoin and we're going to start off very simple in this video and then we're going to get a little bit more complicated so if the first 30 seconds to a minute here start sounding basic don't worry we're going to get deep pretty fast so buckle up the easiest way to picture the problem of what i'm about to say is well basically say let's say you have a hundred dollars so since i don't have a hundred dollars in cash i drew this a picture of a hundred dollars so let's say that this 100 dollar bill can buy you 100 pencils today december 2020 but you choose not to buy the pencils and instead you put the hundred dollars in your drawer next year you take this out and you say hey i'm going to go on my pencils but now the same 100 bill only buys you 98 pencils you got stiffed for two pencils about two percent that's inflation we know that we're going to go pretty deep on this here see even though your paper still says 100 you got less stuff for the same piece of paper that you had last year and that sucks see this sort of devaluing of our money can happen in two ways sometimes things get more expensive to make because maybe people are getting paid more money because there are fewer workers and prices go up that's not good and when prices go up again we're buying less pencils with our hundred dollars and that can sometimes be a little bit ironic because like pencils should be easier to make over time i mean think about it somebody's probably made a faster pencil machine or we'll just stop using as many pencils and we'll use computers and keyboards that's normal this is what happens when technology actually normally drives prices down but see we're in this really weird world where central banks and governments around the world say you know what even though prices are supposed to go down with technology we're going to do whatever we can to make sure that prices either stay stable or go up which means you're able to buy less pencils every year that goes by and that's kind of weird one of the ways they do this is by basically just printing more of these currency items dollars or hundred dollar bills that we trust and that's pretty much all we have when we have a piece of paper that's called money and it's trust we trust in our government and our central banks that they're not going to completely ruin the value of this for us and if they do well then we'll see inflation and see a recent example we could look at for this is actually venezuela or even zimbabwe their currency basically collapsed because the people lost trust in their governments setting in hyperinflation imagine this today your 100 buys 100 pencils next week it only buys 50 pencils and in one month you can only buy five pencils for your 100 that's bad that means your ability to buy pencils is evaporating really fast and that creates depression fear anger riots civil wars and there are a lot of people worried right now that what if we see hyperinflation in america or around the modern world kind of like what we saw in venezuela or zimbabwe recently or even maybe going back to the weimar republic in germany where guess what happened after the weimar republic and people are wheeling around barrel wheelbarrows of cash in germany just to go buy a loaf of bread well you introduce the lead-in to the nazi government all right let's take a quick pause here because we're going to transition in this video so the first thing that we learned is well inflation makes the trust me dollars go down in value they're able to buy less pencils and this is weird because technically technology should be making things cheaper that's a natural process yet they're not the governments and central banks they want inflation and we also know that governments and central banks literally created 20 of all the currency that exists today which is absolutely insane if there's anything you take away from this video it's that when you look at your next 100 bill or even five dollar bill realize that one fifth of that so one dollar out of five twenty dollars out of a hundred were magically created in 2020 thanks to the pandemic okay so that's what we we just picked up and learned but what is this going to mean going forward well should really consider marking on our calendar because you are going to get inundated with clickbait in march april and may of 2021 that's because in march and april of 2020 we had really low inflation readings and so when we do a year-over-year comparison and we get to march of 2021 and we look back at march of 2020 we're gonna go oh my god look at all that inflation that happened kind of a little fugazi the current measures of inflation are actually really low and so this is where we're going to talk in just a moment about our expectations actually going forward but i just want to clear the air here preemptively again in december that you're going to see a ton of clickbait in march april and may about crazy high inflation just as an example as to how this would work let's say pencils usually sell for a dollar per pencil and in march of 2020 because the pandemic the pencils sell for sev for 95 cents so 95 cents would be the cost of the pencil in march of 2020 but then we have let's say that we go back to normal and then we get two percent inflation in march of 2020 then that pencil might cost a dollar and two cents but if they compare march to march that actually looks like a seven cent difference in pricing which could look like seven percent inflation now i'm not expecting to see headlines that are like oh my god seven percent inflation but i am expecting to see headlines that say holy smokes we're gonna see two and a half to three percent to four percent inflation all over the place in march april and may i'm telling you here in december because you've got to mark your calendar that when you see that that's just a distraction that's fugazi that's going back to normal that's not what we're actually wanting to be worried about instead let's understand the three main things that actually cause inflation first inflation can be caused by a ton of demand and researchers today particularly as it relates to this pandemic have found that there tends to be a surge in demand for goods and services after a pandemic as people are anxious to get out and spend and go back to normal this was studied after the spanish flu in 1918 to 1920 and it was studied after other pandemics as well harvard did the research on the spanish flu the economist talked about other pandemics so this is normal and if we get a surge in demand for goods and services we could see prices go up and that's when we could see that inflation and the loss and value of all of this and it makes sense because household wealth just hit its highest level ever in the united states that's weird because again we're in a pandemic and many people are suffering but aside from the many people who are suffering there are many people who have a lot more money than they used to have well again 20 of money was just created out of thin air it's kind of like somebody threw a bunch of money up in the air and everybody's trying to get their piece this could lead to inflation number two inflation can also be caused by worker shortages as some people retire and we get back to normal levels of employ of employment well right now we think that it's probably going to take and by we i mean the federal reserve we think that it's probably going to take until 2023 to 2024 to actually see normal levels of employment and certainly until we start seeing full levels of employment which is when all minorities and women are also fully employed we might not get there until 2025.
so while inflation can be caused by worker shortages we're probably not going to see those worker shortages just yet we're probably going to see more inflation as a driver come from a surge in demand as people go back to using more goods and services so so far out of one and two we're not seeing worker shortages that are going to lead to inflation just yet but we are seeing prices of travel actually go up especially as airlines have less planes available for more and more people trying to start traveling again so we're seeing prices in food and air travel go up but other than these two sectors not yet seeing inflation from a surge in demand for goods and services which makes sense because well we're not out of the pandemic yet okay so reason number one more demand for goods and services reason number two to see inflation uh would be worker shortages probably gonna be a bit before we see that and then reason number three could actually be caused by well a complacent central bank the economist says that in basically complacent central banks that just keep printing money and injecting money into the economy can force inflation and i mean think about this we had 20 of the world's currency created in a matter of 11 and a half months so this kind of makes all three of these things seem entirely possible now whether they're likely or not we're not quite sure but they definitely seem possible it seems possible that we would see inflation due to a surge in demand it seems possible we'll see inflation when we get back to full employment and it seems possible that we'll see inflation because the fed just keeps printing money the money printer goes round and round totally possible but now this also begs the question that what what historically has happened i mean we looked at historically after pandemics we see inflation but historically after market crashes the picture is a little bit more mixed so it's kind of hard to look towards market crashes for example in the great recession 2008 we had over 800 billion dollars spent on stimulus money which today looks kind of skinny but back then led to 12 years of pretty much no inflation somewhere around one to two percent in fact inflation has almost kind of left the modern world since about the 1990s and a lot of more modern and developed countries are more concerned with deflation than inflation and that's also kind of weird because it it it seems like with all this money printing we should be seeing more inflation after all you've got some interest rates in europe that are negative you've got japan struggling to find inflation the only ones who are actually fighting inflation is china but they're not even a completely developed country yet so what you really have here is a situation where well when we look back over the last 20 years we kind of don't have a lot of inflation precedent to look at what we do though have is the fact that oh wait 19 years before this year we had very low inflation and sort of normal government spending if you could even say that after all the quantitative easing after 2008.
then you go over to 2020 and the world produces 20 of the money that's in circulation and we're expected not to see inflation it seems a little odd and so this has a lot of us wondering okay well i mean the central banks and governments they have to be doing something to prevent inflation from happening and ironically when we actually look at the central banks and governments we and i say central banks and governments because like in the united states the central bank is separate from the government technically uh but in china they're they're not they're combined the government controls the central bank so anyway uh you'd think that central banks and governments wouldn't want this inflation to come but ironically they actually do they want to see this inflation come so we create 20 of the world's currency they want inflation to come we're not seeing it yet but what does this mean that you know what's coming down the pike so to speak here and what do we got to do about it well first it's helpful to understand why the government wants to see inflation quick example let's say you make nine dollars and ninety cents per hour and you owe a thousand dollars in debt on your credit card and just for simplicity let's say that credit card has zero percent interest for a year it would take you 101 hours to pay off that debt not considering taxes or interest here well if we had two percent inflation and your wage went up with inflation by two percent then you'd be making ten dollars an hour it still owe the same thousand dollars because debt does not go up with inflation so all of a sudden now it's only going to take you 100 hours to pay off that debt you just saved an hour and this compounds over time see the interesting thing about inflation is the more inflation happens the cheaper the debt you already have becomes to pay off a house bought in the 1990s 80s 70s is way cheaper to pay off than a house bought in 2015 because the debt just isn't worth as much to the buyer anymore as it was back then so in some sense it kind of seems like if you're investing in real estate you want some inflation and so this then kind of begs the question do we just all go out and buy bitcoin to hedge ourselves from inflation or do we go buy a bunch of real estate or you know is there even going to be a lot of inflation and this is where it's helpful to look at the economist and and see what the economist believes is going to happen in terms of inflation in the latest weekly publication by the economist the economist wrote that they don't actually see real inflation coming despite this insane money printing we've had this year until we absolutely get to full employment and we get wages starting to go up the problem they say though is as people are getting older usually people would retire but people are aging healthier these days you know ignore the pandemic for a moment and this actually in a weird way means even though we think we're going to get to 2023 2024 full employment because people are working longer and they're not retiring as soon so they can continue to make money we might actually not see that pressure on wages going up as we get to full employment in 2023 or 2024 and that's mostly again because people are healthier and wanting to work longer and so the economist actually thinks solely by looking at the potential for worker shortages causing wages to go up leading to inflation the economist thinks we might not see inflation ironically despite all of this insane money printing so you're really in this weird situation where you've got economists saying we're not seeing inflation and we don't think we're going to have a lot of long-run inflation yet we have the data that 20 of the world's currency was just basically created out of thin air in a matter of 11 and a half months which is very weird and we would expect to see inflation but we're not well at the same time we look at modernized countries like japan and we're like hey you know you guys are stimulating and pulling debt like crazy to try to get inflation happening but you're not making it happen europe's not making it happen and nobody's really getting the inflation to come around and so all around we think that we should see inflation yeah we're just not seeing it and we're sort of in this weird situation where we sit here wondering okay well what do we do i mean do we hold on to the pieces of paper that say trust me or is there something that's better to do that protects us whether there is inflation or there isn't inflation and in this case the answer is there is the answer is when you invest in assets like stocks or real estate you generally ride the wave of inflation in excess of whatever inflation is so this is kind of important to know so think about this when you invest in stocks in real estate obviously they go up and down in value and they tend to trend upwards well let's say that this is the inflation line the blue line here the value of your stocks and your real estate properly diversified tends to grow in excess of whatever inflation is so if inflation down here is negative half a percent or over here it's two percent or three percent or four percent the value of your assets tends to go up on top of whatever inflation is and this is kind of good to know because this means you are protected in some sense from whatever inflation does by investing in assets like housing or real estate now the problem is in the short term when inflation goes up and interest rates go up you could see a short term dip in real estate prices because borrowing gets tighter and so really inflation you gotta almost see it as like in the short term it can be painful for stocks in real estate in the long run real estate and stocks tend to float on top of whatever inflation is and so that really becomes a case for oh okay so no matter what happens with inflation we should consider investing because we're on sort of that wave uh the ups and downs so to speak and if the fed doesn't think that we're going to get to full employment until 2023 or 2024 we're probably not too worried about actually seeing interest rates go up until 2023 2024 at the soonest which would mean that we're probably going to be insulated at least for the next few years from any kind of price shock to real estate from interest rates going up there are other things that could push real estate down you know we could see an eviction crisis there are many other things that go on that could affect real estate prices or even stock prices individual stock prices certainly but the other thing that we can do is we can take on modest amounts of cheap debt to protect ourselves remember that credit card example i gave the best form of a credit card against your investments is really a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage against real estate i personally don't recommend prepaying your mortgage until you're ready to retire or getting close to retirement uh and that's because you could lock up money at 30 years for a fixed rate sometimes as low as two and a h you know .75 two and a half percent these days which is ridiculously low and you're locking in this interest rate for 30 years and if for some reason there's this crazy pandemic that happens the banks might just call you and go hey we'll offer you mortgage forbearance if you can't make your payment which is also kind of insane but anyway it definitely makes sense despite or sort of in spite of what happens with inflation whether it goes up or it stays down in this weird environment we're in it definitely makes sense to get invested and have at least some exposure to safe debt you don't want to be over leveraged you want to keep your leverage relatively uh in control without a doubt you know in stocks i recommend zero to ten percent leverage zero to twenty percent leverage maybe stocks stock leverage is just dangerous so be careful there in real estate i like to be no more than 60 percent debt if you get to half half that could be nice there's a balancing act to do there but these are some things to consider about what central banks in the world are doing right now relative to what our inflation expectations are and relative to what we should do about it so i know this was a little bit more of a high level video if you found it helpful though consider uh consider subscribing to the channel and checking out the programs in the links down below my goal is always to provide you perspective that helps you build your wealth and of course if you haven't yet also there is a link for life insurance right next to that and folks we'll see you next video
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