저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 말 시장 촉매를 점검하며 연말까지 거래일 13.5일 남은 변동성, 기관 이익실현 후 재투자 가능성, 연간 대량 유동성 유입을 긍정적 요인으로 제시. 의회 부양책 교착은 불확실성, 테슬라 S&P500 편입(12/21) 전후 매도 가능성을 경계. 결론적으로 현금 대기보다 즉시 분산 투자(인덱스펀드 등)를 권장.
다듬은 글
biggest danger for the end of 2020. i'm going to start with chapter one we're going to talk about market moving catalysts that we have ahead of us both good catalysts things that make the market go up and bad catalyst things that help the market go down then in chapter two i'm going to talk about the biggest stock and housing market danger that we all collectively face and then chapter three i'm going to talk about my suggestions in terms of what to do so let's get right into the discussion right after mentioning that you should check out the amazing holiday sale that we've got going on on the programs on real estate investing in stock investing and access to okay let's get started chapter one the biggest catalyst we have ahead of us we've got quite a few of them well to me the biggest one out of all of them is the fact that we've only got 13 and a half trading days left in 2020.
that means i expect a record of volatility at the end of this year we're going to see a ton of profit taking for hedge funds taking money out of the market and going ha ha look at the gains i locked in for 2020 this is gonna be sweet clout for 2021 but at the same time as you got hedge funds potentially taking money out to take profits you might have a lot of people with retirement money flowing into the market because they've been sitting on the sidelines and maybe they finally decide to get in in 2020 before the year is over only got 13 and a half days left to do that in fact citibank is telling its customers to get 100 invested there's this other dude jeff stout from capital wealth he's a chief investment officer and he says look citibank is right get 100 invested before the end of the year he says look secular bull markets his words okay tend to last 18 to 20 years i think people are being way too cautious here i think people are under invested if we get more people like this and we get a bunch of people flooding money into the marketplace then it's kind of like okay well what's what's going to be more damaging hedge funds potentially taking profits or people flooding into the market is the market going to go up well i think a lot of that has to do with what are hedge funds going to do well i think if hedge funds do take profits big you know institutional investors take profits i wouldn't be surprised if they just put the money right back into the stock market the reason for that is usually we hear about the end of the year rotation into bonds right hedge funds are like okay we got to maintain our 60 40 split between stocks and bonds but the reality is a lot of hedge funds might decide here in 2020 that hey usually we go over to bonds oh but wait bond yields are garbage that's because there's so much freaking money in the system that bonds have gotten so expensive and their yields have gotten low bottom line hedge funds might not move into bonds they could literally take their profits and just move right back into the stock market which means now you've got hedge funds staying in the stock market you've got people funding retirement accounts moving into the stock market maybe you've got people on the sidelines finally moving back into the stock market because investment advisors are like get invested the parties over here everybody get in it can't go wrong so you potentially will have a very volatile next 13 and a half trading days but you'll also potentially see the biggest inflow of money that we've ever seen before into the stock market which is crazy to think about because the market's already ridiculously high but you want to know what's also ridiculous the fact that 20 of all the money that exists in the world has been created in 2020 yeah one fifth of all of the money that exists so 20 out of every 100 exists according to the economist was created in 2020 thanks to federal reserve stimulus money printing ecb money printing japanese money printing asia markets money printing in china you name it everybody's been going which is a big tell that it wouldn't be a surprise for us to see the market move pretty substantially maybe not necessarily in the next thirteen and a half days but the capacity is there people have a lot of wealth and cash sitting on the sidelines which is certainly a different story if you make less than forty thousand dollars a year or you're unemployed then you're screwed and you're getting left behind thank congress for that they suck rich you're getting rich poor or getting poor right but this is this is kind of generally what we see in uh capitalist societies but what what about the market itself like what what are our expectations here and what are our negative catalysts because so far if we see record inflows hedge funds don't rotate out and we've got lots of money sitting on the sidelines because there is so much more cash those are all really positive things those could prop the market up even more which makes us think wait is this bubble territory or is this just adjusting to a dare i say it new normal because there's so much extra cash around who knows but what we do know is there are some negative catalysts on the horizon and we're going to be playing that teeter-totter game of okay who's gonna win the positive catalyst that are gonna send the market to the moon or the negative ones that are going to create a lot of fear and uncertainty and how do we play this game well right now the biggest negative catalyst is well congress and that shouldn't be a surprise congress has a self-imposed deadline of passing a government funding and budget uh budget bill by the 18th along with a rider stimulus package also by the 18th but knowing congress this negotiation could easily spill over into christmas a week and next week or potentially even over into the new year's eve period the longer congress takes to come to a solution my guess is the more people are going to be pretty hesitant about the market and will wait to re-enter the market until we get some more affirming catalysts so we've got the good catalyst i've talked about we've got the uncertainty catalyst of congress but then we also have the people that will sit on the sidelines waiting for congress to do something the odds are if they do nothing those people will not enter the market and maybe we'll see the market move downwards if they do act the odds are the people on the sidelines might start moving into the market either way you look at it it seems like people are ready to pull the trigger and get into the market in larger numbers than we've ever seen before now of course we do have a worst case scenario let's do the worst case scenario because maybe this is what would actually lead to some people leaving the market and us seeing a decline in prices towards the end of the market that's the worst case scenario which is we end 2020 without a budget or without a stimulus package this would potentially happen because congress might get to the end of this year and say you know what f it let's just wait until the january 5th runoff election and if democrats win both seats on january 5th then democrats will likely take complete control and we likely won't see another stimulus package until democrats can use their new power and clout to pressure republicans into a deal until the end of january this to me is probably worst case scenario not necessarily the democrats are in power but just just because all of a sudden now we're waiting even longer for a stimulus package and we do more damage to our economy every single day that we don't get stimulus this is probably going to create the biggest nervousness but we might not see that nervousness materialize until january but but you know overall i mean generally when we see this kind of volatility and negative negativity i see that as a wonderful buying opportunity however right now it looks like a deal is at least relatively promising that we will get something like at least a 750 billion dollar bridge deal maybe it doesn't include state and local government funding but we get something to bridge unemployment the eviction crisis education vaccine distribution and so on this would potentially mean that if we wanted to invest in 2020 we'd probably want to get in before that deal happens again you've got this risk that the deal doesn't happen and you have to wait until january whether we need to find a compromise in late january or democrats take control and we wait for a compromise in late january fine that's going to create a potential buying opportunity there but you're up against the fact that at any moment congress could say women a deal and my guess is the market's going to jump faster than we can even react as a result there is a train of thought that it might make sense to get into the market and invested before congress acts now if you want to track what potentially could come out of this january 5th election you can type into google 538 poll georgia senate it is a poll though so take it with a grain of salt this poll does flip almost daily but right now it looks like we're going to be stuck again with a republican-controlled senate as of the latest poll although it seems like it depends who's doing the poll in terms of who's winning but anyway leading up through this and and congress acting i think the next 13.5 days have some real potential for lots of this a lot of this but overall it seems like the market is pricing in that congress is going to get stimulus done and we've got potentially record inflows and hedge fund money potentially staying in the market those are a lot of overall good things now let's add to this on december 15th and 16th tuesday and wednesday the federal reserve will hold their latest federal reserve board meeting and it will be the last one for the year now while the market might be on pins and needles to see what the heck jerome powell is going to do let me be upfront with you and say there is a 97.99997 percent chance that jerome powell is going to smooth our souls or rest the souls and just say whatever he needs to do to make sure we believe the following things are true number one the fed will support the market with any tools they have available number two the fed will keep injecting 80 plus billion dollars per month into the markets through treasury bond purchases or mortgage-backed security purchases basically burr printing money on demand oh but it's digitally printed he doesn't run out of ink because of that and number three he will do whatever he can to make sure that we think inflation will go up to two percent at some point in the future but fear not he won't raise rates until we have a sustained economic recovery in other words this week especially come wednesday when this press conference is expected probably somewhere around 1 30 2 p.m something like that from federal reserve chairman jerome powell when this happens i'm expecting our first bout of good news and if this gets combined with congress getting close to a deal we're gonna get double good news this week so we could potentially be in a situation where by wednesday you've got congress giving good news maybe we'll see you know if not we could potentially get delayed and that'll be you know volatility inducing but you're certainly going to get the federal reserve giving us all we want in terms of good news my expectation is the market's going to be very excited about the fact that the vaccine's already getting distributed we got fda approval actual approval not just advisory recommendation friday night that hasn't been priced into the market yet i mean maybe it has been priced in the market but the market hasn't had a chance to react to it yet because the market hasn't been open so so far i have to say i mean putting all these things together it seems like in a weird way the market is leaning towards hey we might end up with a pretty green end of december here not saying we're not going to have volatility but so far the indicators of us potentially having a large crash i think it's going to take some kind of black swan for us to actually see that kind of like when covet first came around and i don't know if we're going to get that the biggest thing that i could say that's coming up that could create some real pain in the market is potentially between the 18th and 21st see on the 18th we have quadruple witching day and it's also the day that's right before tesla joins the s p 500 so you know and then monday the 21st tesla actually joins the s p 500 and i expect that that you know maybe thursday the 17th through december 22nd is going to be a really interesting time especially for tesla it could have broader market implications as well because if we get a big sell-off at tesla then we're going to see the s p 500 now go down you know if tesla drops a bunch it's it's gonna have like a one and a half percent weight and it's going to have enough muster to potentially start a tech sell-off kind of like what we saw at the beginning of september tesla started selling off people got scared sold more tesla boom people ripped money out of all tech stocks it was a crazy tax sell-off all in september and a lot of thinkers point to tesla right after the stock split for that so i mean really if we kind of compare some of these catalysts here we've got you know a good amount of pluses here not too many crazy negatives now in addition to the volatility we might see from tesla which we have no idea of tesla's going to drop big after this inclusion date i kind of think it will it wouldn't surprise me to see tesla 400 again 420 again we'll revisit those days again would not surprise me at all and if that happens i'll be shopping a big time because i think it'll be a big trader sell-off event uh and we'll see how supply matches demand but anyway ignoring tesla what what else do we have as maybe a negative catalyst well maybe we have value valuation chart what do they always do they always compare to the s and p 500 you get the s p price to earnings ratios and all that but wait a minute the s p 500 has a crap ton of tech companies in it i mean look at the top 20 it's all tech heck the probably 50 percent of the s p 500 is tech weighted and so the reality is what does tech do well tech is known for low earnings and not only low earnings but high r d spend probably contributing to low earnings so you've got these tech companies that are investing in the future that give low earnings which makes multiples look terribly out of whack in the s p 500 and then the other 50 of the s p 500 well a lot of those are recovery stocks which what's happening to them well they've potentially got zero earnings so yeah of course the s p 500 on the account of any particular or any even normal s p 500 valuation chart is going to look overvalued and then i mean even just forgetting the potential technical shifts that we're seeing in the s p 500 consider the fact that if we do have 20 more money it kind of makes sense that valuations are gonna get stretched a little bit because you've got more dollars chasing a finite amount of stocks so uh you know things to think about here uh overall when i average this i get a little bit nervous about uh well we'll talk more about what i'm doing in my thoughts here in just a moment uh but what i will say in the meantime is uh first of all if you've made this far you you deserve to get yourself life insurance in as little as five minutes and four free stocks you go to links down below and as little as five minutes you can get life insurance in well by apple pay or android paying for it and you can get four free stocks worth up to 1600 bucks just remember deposit 100 because if you don't deposit 100 you won't get the second set of free stocks which are the more expensive ones you should be able to get at minimum twenty one dollars for free by depositing a hundred dollars it's like a 21 return on your money okay so let's move on now to chapter two and that's what is basically the biggest risk and the danger facing the stock and housing market for us right now well short of a a black swan given that you know overall these things seem overwhelmingly positive there is some uncertainty right we do have the uncertainty of congress uh the uncertainty of congress i suppose should really be over here on the red side so we do have some uncertainty but those aren't necessarily guaranteed to be bad catalysts whereas these seem to be mostly good catalysts be interesting but what's the biggest risk factor that we face right now and in my opinion this is going to sound a little oversimplified but here we go it's honestly it's uh it's not investing uh look number one everyone watching this video should and we're going to go deeper into this okay again i know that sounds simplistic i don't want to lose you here because we're going to get into some really specific detail in terms of what you can do but i personally think that everyone watching this video should be in a situation where they're considering getting pre-approved so that way at least if you're open to buying a deal in real estate you're ready to do it so that way you get an update on zillow or redfin you're like oh my gosh that looks like a really good fixer-upper a really good multi-family deal at least you've got the capacity to write an offer it's not a bad idea and look yeah no i get it good deals might be far and few between but this is exactly why you got to be ready to buy in real estate so that way you could diversify out of stocks a little bit and second if you haven't gotten started investing in stocks yet do that or consider at least do this do me a favor transfer money over to your brokerage account stop keeping money sitting in your dumb checking account or your dump savings account i'd rather see you over draft that crap than have a ton of money sitting there doing nothing get it over to your brokerage account so that way when and if an opportunity pops up you don't have to sit around twiddling your thumbs waiting for your money to transfer it's there you're ready to pull the trigger if an opportunity comes up what could be an opportunity well hello if tesla sells off big time we start revisiting the 400s and 300s it's going to be an opportunity you're gonna want to buy that i will now i personally believe but i i could be wrong here but this is my investing thesis now and obviously you could take what you want with this usually when i say that we should invest by the way i get uh you know all i upset all of the bears who say kevin you're an idiot you're gonna lose everything look i've heard that for the last 10 years and the opposite has been true but that's fine you know everybody tries to criticize everyone uh so no problem i get it i suppose that's human nature i personally believe that the last 13 and a half trading days of 2020 could be well the last again depending on congress we'll see what happens in january uh but and if we get good news this week then we don't have to worry about january anyway these next 13 and a half trading days could be the last real opportunities to invest before the floodgates open and everybody who's been waiting to get in the market and their mothers plow into the market with everything we've got like that could potentially make 2021 investment returns pretty subpar unless you're already in the market before the floodgates opened up and everybody and their mother got in there's there's still a lot of that fear and uncertainty on the sidelines right now where there are a lot of people who are heavily invested in cash or alternative assets so that's a sign that the market even though in some scenarios like you look at like evs or spax or whatever the market might seem euphoric in some spots the market might seem like it's at all-time highs but in general i would not say the market is euphoric i don't think we have that kind of euphoria investing yet we've certainly just been uh especially the fact that we have 20 more money supply to me it's a sign that there's still room to go we'll see no guarantees the market's not going to crash but personally though i'm not willing to sit around and wait for a crash the reality is if the market crashes i'm going to do the same that i did in march when i get paid i buy more and i won't be sad that i got in you know earlier or later because you know what you can't do anything about what's already happened all you can do right now is look at your cash and decide do i want to let my cash sit here for an opportunity that might not come or do i want to get invested in the market see look people told me since 2010 kevin there's going to be a double dip crash you just wait it's going to be a double dip shadow inventory of foreclosures are coming and what did i do every step of the way every time i heard this crap i said all right bring it on and i kept buying and buying and buying over and over and over again there's a reason i now have an over 30 million dollar investment portfolio so this way when all the bears i usually get in the comments that are like just wait kevin you're going to lose everything look even if the market fell 50 percent i'd still have a 15 million dollar investing portfolio so when the market fell in march i cheered because there was an opportunity to buy cheaper but it didn't mean i was going to sit around and miss out on all the potential gains that happened between 2010 and 2020 just because i was perfectly trying to time the market and i encourage you to potentially it started getting a little bit heavier into the market uh just my pov again could be wrong but i think there's a lot more certainty on the horizon than uncertainty because here's the reality what happens after these 13 and a half trading days well the tesla s p 500 inclusion is over the congress we will know did congress make a decision or not we will know what the federal reserve's plans are are they going to increase their bond buying or not we're going to know who's going to control the senate on january 5th we're going to know whether or not there's going to be an eviction crisis we're going to know whether or not we have stimulus so the reality is once we know these things we can plan and the market likes to be able to plan and reacts to that generally with optimism it's when the market is fearful which we have some leftover fear now you know i mean it's nothing like the fear we had before the election or certainly not like what we had in march we just look at the vix the volatility index but even just forgetting about that to me what's the biggest mistake for 2020 sitting on the sidelines and just waiting well all of the leftover fear evaporates so my recommendation where do you invest money now well that's chapter three so to me there are four things you should do in particular order or in this particular order number one get your money set instead of in a dumb checking account at the very least the most basic form of investing invested into like a set of four to five different index funds tomorrow like all of your savings above and beyond a two to three month emergency fund get it in if you want to see a sample of this go to met kevin.com basket there's just a sample of a basket of index funds you can invest in or you can go to wealth front and check them out and they sort of invest your money into a basket of index funds as well then number two get pre-approved stop renting at least be prepared to buy if a good deal comes up if your neighbor comes over to you like kevin i just want to sell this house i don't want to put it on the market do you want to buy it please just have a freaking pre-approval letter and people are always like have it but kevin isn't the pre-approval letter going to expire who cares so what like this is how hard it is to get a new pre-approval letter hey yo brian can you write me a new pre-approval letter i found the deal and no problem kevin i'll send it right over like it's not that big of a deal oh but kevin i need to do bank statement yeah you would need that anyway if we went into escrow it's not that big of a deal number three fund your roth ira your hsa and your 529 savings plan notice this order is very important you got invested you got your pre-approval letter to buy real estate and then you're getting into the roth the hsa and the 529 savings plans more on that oh you talk about that regularly in the investing course the money course mostly but uh anyway number four now you could start in my opinion getting into something that's a little bit more catered to your risk tolerance i personally like investing in something i call 1337 v17 okay so version 17 and i'm just finalizing this by but by the time this video is up you'll be able to have the final version of it but uh take a look at this it's basically uh these pies through m1 finance where you will automatically get your money invested into these various different things so if you put a thousand dollars into this pie and i don't get paid for the money you have in these pies if you sign up for m1 finance they they give i think both of us a thank you but uh the point is like i don't manage your money i'm not collecting a fee of the money you invest in this this is just a suggestion honestly you could look at it and just bum the the percentages if you want but to me here's an idea where if you invest a thousand dollars you put you know 30 to 35 dollars into lemonade shift etsy pinterest peloton shopify beyond meat right these are some of our larger consumer and retail stocks here evs 100 bucks into tesla 25 in the neo 20 into x ping 13 into end phase just some examples here docusign gets 27 bucks cloud fare fastly they get 22 bucks zoom gets 17.
so you can see how your thousand bucks is actually getting diversified here for you with little work paypal square they're getting 30 bucks uh so to me this is kind of a fun way to invest because this way you put your money into something that's you know this is heavily tech centric so i can't say it's extremely diversified but it's certainly more diversified than just having one stock the cool thing about that is if you load up uh you know an investment account that you have 50 stocks in for example and it's all spread out like that if you end up getting a big sell-off in tesla and that thing drops like a rock well you're not going to get hit very hard because you're so diversified again relative to the tax base but if you wanted to you could always sell some of these the index funds that you hold or this particular basket that you hold and then specifically target buy tesla if you wanted to on a buying opportunity that way you're in the market right that's the big big mistake that's the whole point of this video is you get in the market if you're super nervous get into the index funds and pick a few of them and then that way if the market falls uh and certain stocks sell off like crazy the odds are all of your stocks are not going to sell off like crazy and then you'll be able to shave and go by you
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