저자: Kevin · 외국인
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향후 경제 시나리오 3가지(느린 디스인플레이션+전쟁·고금리, 느린 디스인플레이션 무블랙스완, 급속 디스인플레이션 연착륙)를 제시하며 최악 시나리오를 중심으로 분석. 2023년 10월 기준 금·유가 상승, 미국채 10년물 하락 언급. 부동산은 이번 겨울 약 10% 하락 가능성을 보며 11~3월 매수 기회로 봄. 주식은 2022년 저점 수준까지는 아니나 저항선 돌파가 어려울 것으로 봄. 2024년 선거 이후 확실성이 높아져 주식 배분 권유. 강의 판매 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
in this bottom line report I'm going to break down exactly what I think is going to happen in the real estate crash that we might see sooner rather than later I'll break down exactly how much of a real estate crash I think we might face I'm also going to break down why everybody feels absolutely miserable right now and the outcomes that we could end up seeing in the stock market and global economy let's get right into it the first thing we have to do is understand what uncertainties we face and this list is not even a complete list of uncertainties there are a lot of uncertainties a lot but before I do that I want to remind you that after I make this video and I get a little bit of sleep I got to raise the prices on the new verse Pro courses I didn't get it done tonight so you still have a chance to go to meetkevin.com to check out on the new verse Pro courses before the price goes up so what are the list of uncertainties we face well consider how long this is and this isn't even everything what happens if Donald Trump wins his cases does he become president and what does that mean what happens if Trump loses these cases and then he doesn't end up becoming the Republican nominee who fights Biden does Biden win does Biden officially run and win or does Nome step up what happens if we actually get a real earnings recession what about that real estate crash what about another Black Swan what about a debt bubble and some kind of default leveraged loan crisis what about an immigration crisis another banking crisis excess savings evaporating by January 1st like people keep click baiting what about escalating War but not just localized conflict but Global Warfare think about this Russia Ukraine Israel Palestine China Taiwan a global incendiary cluster F and when I say cluster F I say it with passion because that is what war is war is a cluster F but beyond that I want to make it very clear the killing of innocent children is effing disgusting killing more innocent children in retribution for that is also disgusting it is not the answer killing children is not the answer and I don't want to hear the comments of people going well you know it's different if it's collateral damage the last thing I want to hear is people talking about taking innocent children's lives because oh sorry I missed this is ridiculous but this video isn't another war video this video is to understand the economic war that we face and how much do I actually expect real estate prices in the stock market to fall well in order to understand that we have to understand there are three scenarios that we could go down there are three Pathways and after we analyze the three Pathways what we're going to do is we are going to analyze the worst first one to try to assume how bad things can actually get obviously we are in the fog of War we don't have all the answers but I'm going to do my best and yes even and I'm a real estate broker no this is just perspective for you to determine your own situation and your own investing strategies but what are the scenarios that we potentially face well I wrote them down first this is the worst this is slow disinflation and slow disinflation coupled with war high yields gold rising and oil Rising leads to a very hesitant Federal Reserve to actually cut rates this is not good this is probably the worst case scenario and some of these things we're seeing now gold up 3.3% on Friday we have not seen that in a very long time oil up 5 to 6% then you'd think bond yields might go up because inflation expectations totally got destroyed in the University of Michigan sentiment read on Friday sentiment way low inflation expectations way high and what did we end up getting with treasury yields a drop in the 10year treasury of 9.4 basis points and the NASDAQ down 1.23 basis points very weird another bare steepening of the yield curve yet the stock market Market plummeting along with gold rising and oil Rising all of it actually points to the same direction fear massive fear uncertainty and doubt and it's fear of what it's fear that recession a banking crisis a debt crisis the lack of savings and earnings recession all of that happens because why it's simple folks it's right here because the FED Cuts more slowly and we drive into recession now I'm going to give my projections in terms of what I think on how bad the real estate market might be what I'm seeing on the ground right now and the stock market in just a moment but realize there are two other scenarios the other scenarios are slow disinflation with no Black Swan that means these conflicts resolve themselves no major banking crisis and I want to be clear I don't actually think we're going to see a banking crisis again uh the reason I say that is because you could look at the bank term funding program it's not seeing a lot of funding again and that's a sign of low banking crisis problems so I think banks had their wakeup call during the banking crisis I think it's there's a low chance we're going to see another banking crisis I also think immigration is actually supporting the fed's call for lower wage inflation so this is probably not a big deal excess savings well excess savings were zero before the pandemic so I actually don't think that catalyst is that big of a deal defaults right now now are roughly normalized and yes our debt crisis and our budget failures and Congress failures those are all real problems those aren't the problems that are probably going to take us down in this cycle what could take us down in this crisis in my opinion War absolutely absolutely war in terms of what happens with the election well think about it when are we going to have the answer to the election when are we going to have the answer to inflation well probably by the end of next year so the question now is how much does all of this uncertainty hurt stocks and real estate well that's this is why I have three scenarios scenario number one scenario number one tells us slow disinflation that's the worst one that's scenario number one here uh scenario number two is the slow disinflation and then scenario number three is the best one this is your soft Landing that's rapid disinflation and the Federal Reserve can cut rates quickly that's most ideal right so so what do we think well in the fog of War it's likely that disinflation is going to continue but is going to be bumpy and I'm going to go with a scenario that is the worst case scenario I believe that the worst case scenario was already in 2022 that is Paul vulker I think Paul vulker is the worst case scenario Runway inflation and I don't think we are going to face runaway inflation that's why it's not one of my three scenarios and that's solely based on in earnings calls every single day I'll spare you the details but I don't see runaway R runaway inflation we are facing more disinflation than we are facing inflation yes sometimes we have volatile categories jump we get it but the trend is down and guess what we're going to have by the end of next year housing disinflation will be here we will see a leveling out of the other inflationary categories yes Energy prices can squeeze margins and cause an earnings recession but not run away inflation that's really important to remember oil can Skyrocket and that'll destroy company earnings but it does not need to cause runaway inflation on actual core goods and core services and it probably won't yes would runaway inflation be the absolute worst case scenario yes but I don't see signs of that maybe I'm wrong look I know inflation's been hot we've had 18% inflation on average food way more expensive rents more expensive everything's frustratingly more expensive but that's not on my bingo card was runaway inflation so I'm going to put that scenario aside I'm also going to put the really bullish soft Landing narratives aside and what we're going to do is we're going to look at the worst case scenario that I see the worst case scenario and the price impacts that I see are as follows number one Higher for longer and these conflicts Drive pain for longer and uncertainty for longer gold Rises oil Rises and stocks can't break resistance here's how this breaks out first this ends up being the nastiest real estate winter we've had in a while worse than last year it's what we're starting to see on the ground I think you need to take a 10% reduction on any real estate that you're seeing right now that is if you thought a fixer upper was a good deal at 600 you really need to buy at about 540 now that's what we're seeing on the ground saw a fix her up or come up that would have comped out at 550 to 600 2 months ago now it's comping out at maybe 510 to 540 yeah that's a big 10% reduction and we're seeing this in multiple areas whether it's California it's Utah it's Arizona uh it is Texas Florida to some extent though a lesser extent it's also happening in Florida though though don't kid yourself Brower County we're seeing it Tampa we're seeing it it's harder to get these deals done now because rates are so high and uncertainties are through the roof but think about how long these uncertainties will last these uncertainties many of them will probably be gone by the end of 2024 especially since the election will be over and we'll know did China invade Taiwan yet how did these Regional conflicts turn out as a result I actually think rates are most likely to have their clearest path forward not now but at the end of next year and so that makes this winter an opportunity and this winter could be long it could be a November to March painful period of time of uncertainty especially with these geopolitical conflicts which will affect the real estate market as well and that's why I think this winter is a great opportunity to buy actually I think it'll be a much better opportunity to buy than the winter after the election because the winter after the election will have a lot more Clarity way more clarity Clarity on interest rate path Clarity on presidency and Clarity on conflicts we won't have those clarities this winter and generally the best time to buy real estate is between November and March uh more like November December January because who buys during the new year and Christmas and Thanksgiving right the people who need to sell sell during those times so uh that is also why well exactly what we're going to be doing with house and it's exactly what we're seeing in various different markets throughout area that we're trending towards more pain that's what I'm saying 10% yes look we had a 10% to 20% correction from March to May of 2022 down to the winter of 22 then we recovered from January to about September but I think September's going to be your high August September comps are going to be your high in Texas probably July is your high and then you start seeing an inflection all the way down to the end of the year that's good for Real Estate it's an opportunity for Real Estate but it's not a 2008 it's my opinion I'm giving you my opinion I see 10% this winter and it's a buying opportunity we have way more certainty on inflation than we did in 2022 and we're continuing that Trend now we need to get uncertainty away in some of these other issues and those are going to go away in time then as far as the stock market I don't see stocks going back down to 2022 levels that's because there's no Paul vulker however it will be very difficult to stock for stocks to break through resistance levels it's for like Tesla to hit new highs or otherwise it will be very difficult for stocks to hit new highs how long are we going to have these uncertainties about a year thanks to the election I think once we get to the election 2024 cycle you're going to want to have allocated to stocks now keep in mind I'm also a big fan of you considering allocating to house Haack the minimum to invest is now $5,000 you have a deadline between now and November 1st to invest so check that out uh we plan to close the fundraising round for this year uh by November 1st we're not sure if we'll bring it back that's because we're going to focus all in on buying real estate between November and December so it's my thesis my thesis is very very clear do I think we're going to face World War I no but the uncertainties of World War I will be in our face the killing of children is is so disgusting and unfortunately we're going to see more of it and breaks my heart I have twins due probably within the next 2 to 3 weeks here I could never imagine that look markets hate uncertainty that's why Gold's Rising that's why oil's Rising that's why yields are so high it is an uncertain time but I don't think our economy is destroyed one day the dollar will go to zero and the debt crisis will blow up but not this time buckle up for a ride but these are the times to educate yourself to provide more value to your employer to make more money to invest because I still believe it come 2033 that's 10 years from now we're going to look back and go yeah inflation was transitory wow those were a lot of conflicts we were in WoW interest rates on home are now 1.8% real assets are going to do really well then if that ends up turning out to be that case with that said check out those new vers Pro courses I got to change the prices when I wake up check those out email staff atme kevin.com if you need a bundle up check them out along with the links to ll at the little Banners at the top at meetkevin.com nor is a information and have a great weekend
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