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stocks are off to a good start this morning and Nvidia is playing a pretty big role in supporting the market after bouncing on Friday and continuing it this morning ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show at which Jensen Wong Nvidia CEO will be speaking tonight Tom I with me here in studio looking at the options market for NVIDIA andv delva joins us founder and CIO of spear invest a noted semiconductor bull happy New Year good to see you Ivana happy New Year Oliver uh Nvidia Jensen wall CES take me through it what are you expecting well Oliver as you know the stock styled a little bit going into the end of the year last year and people were very concerned about two things mainly one is competition from costume chips and the other one is execution on Blackwell deliveries so we are expecting to hear more details on both on the competition from costume chips I think people miss two key points which is that coua is a real Advantage for them so we think they're going to be talking a lot about that and introducing new Frameworks and models that people can use to build applications and on the Blackwell side we think that Blackwell is really on track we think the concerns were overblown going into last year so any sort of indication that that's going well will be a positive Catalyst for the stock so do you expect uh any updated numbers um or is this mostly product and sort of innovation talk given in the setting it's these types of events are mostly product and Innovation talk rather than numbers but you can easily imply if things are on track then their guidance all of a sudden becomes achievable and people have some some concerns about them being to able to deliver billions of dollars of black W so any sort of commentary that would indicate that the numbers are still on track would be positive what is the kind of next step for uh a product just to come back to that point uh to to your point on blackw that seemingly is now sort of an assessment of how many buyers show up and uh how ready the uh machines are to be bought kind of a supply and kind of demand basic because we kind of know the product um what might surprise in terms of U either the applications that they're offering this the software or uh just generally kind of from the consumer standpoint what are people going to be buzzing about well I think the one thing that people kind of don't appreciate here is how model training is changing over time and and everybody is asking where where where is the next next demand leg going to come from and this is really where we see a lot of it coming from models are going to be trained in a very different way that they are trained today it's going to be more of an iterative process that we require significantly more compute so I think any detail on that basically driv having exponential growth for Accelerated Computing will be uh very valuable to get from this conference so in the past we used to train models and then do inference in the future we're going to be doing more of a continuous process of constantly training and improving the models well uh when he's called the demand insane for Blackwell uh I guess that sets the bar pretty high but stock moving uh close to the record like it believes that it will be justifiable uh insane uh thinking about the price action ofana kind of what is your uh Baseline on that right now where do you think Nvidia could get to this year and what kind of path do you think it takes well we are expecting pretty significant upside to the numbers so we think they're going to be able to deliver $200 billion just from Blackwell alone and if you do the math on that even if you assume constant multiple and if you assume that they can continue to grow you can see this stock compounding at a 30 plus per rate over the next several years so we still see pretty solid upside at some point the upside is not going to be as exponential but it will be more of a compounding type upside and that's what we expect uh for this year okay uh the uh Taiwan Simi and Han High news uh good overnight for the narrative can you repeat that Oliver I couldn't hear very well uh Taiwan Simi this morning rip in looked like Han High was pretty U active so I guess nvidia's partners are jamming that's a good sign right that's right that's a very good sign so I think it's a very good sign for the space overall okay uh Tom let's talk some options hang with the Savana for a moment uh when you look at the options in Invidia uh how Wild is it I mean this is not an earnings report but when Jensen takes stage at a big event uh I would imagine P vs are creeping up time uh not creeping up just slightly um they're still relatively low the IV a percentile rank still around that 25% level so in the bottom 1/4 of implied volatility levels that we've seen over the last 52 weeks now last year CES was on January 8th stock rallied 6% after uh that first uh keynote that he gave so expectations pretty high option flows on upside calls out of- the money calls are expanding as we talk uh you know the put call ratio uh really low at this point because everybody's piling into uh speculative calls so upside here so I looked at it from the perspective if you think it's going to go up maybe you take that bullish stance you buy some calls but maybe offset some of the costs on it because the stock has rallied pretty significantly over the last few sessions so going out to the January 31st weekly cycle this uh 25 days to expiration I'm going to buy the 148 strike call that's slightly in the money it's got that higher Delta and then against it because maybe it gets back to alltime highs maybe it continues to move up uh I sold the 160 call against it to offset some of the risk and cost on the bullish call purchase on the 148 strike $12 wide bullish call vertical paying roughly about a $45 debit for it that's going to be your risk 450 bucks and that spread can expand to $12 if it gets above 160 and you have some flexibility as far as trade management goes on this one because you're buying a directional bullish vertical right so if the stock Pops to 155 tomorrow 156 this thing expands maybe to eight bucks that gives you the opportunity to maybe parse some of your position if you're buying multiple spreads uh on this one or just close it all you don't have to wait until expiration uh to exit this trade if you get the move you want sooner than expiration I mean it's going to do really well if we uh get past the high you know um obviously your um gains will get capped out but you know that's kind of a uh logical approach I think given the uh uh chop that this has been in until it breaks out it might well be range bound so it'd be a pretty harsh rejection though if it gets up here to 150 and then turns around yeah it it would that that all-time high about 152 I like the direction yeah you only need a 2% move from current share prices to get above the break even here about 152 and a half all right uh Ivana when it comes to the other stuff uh is there uh room in 2025 for the uh second rate chip trades to take a stand uh or have we learned that the the numbers are just too powerful Nvidia for NVIDIA to allow second rate players uh I mean the AMD was pretty rough in the second half of last year bunch of Chip makers uh charts look totally different well Oliver it's going to be interesting to see the downside actually for AMD last year came more from the custom chip makers so I think there is room for several players here however it's very difficult to compete with Nvidia and really the custom chip makers have made slight more progress than AMD last year so we're watching this very closely because the microsofts the Amazon of the world they're partnering with companies like Nvidia like Marvel and and broadcom to develop their own chips so AMD is having a bit of a rougher go but I do think the market is pretty large and there is going to be a space for for multiple players it's just going to take a little longer for somebody like AMD to gain attration okay thanks a lot ofana great to get you take as always thanks for being here looking forward to continuing the conversation throughout 2025 v delva spear invest sprx Tom what are the in AMD options look like uh imply volatility the Stock's rebounded a little bit remember it was down 18% last year uh but it's rebounded uh a little bit over the last few sessions along with Nvidia and the tech trade uh in general so I looked at a bullish trade in here if you think it's going to rebound uh even further but I'm offsetting some of the cost so instead of buying just a straight uh call or a straight call vertical like I did in the Nvidia example I'm buying an unbalanced call butterfly to the upside where I can offset some of my cost where my risk is only what I pay on it and it's lower just because uh I'm doing the butterfly so going out to the January 31st weekly cycle so 25 days to expiration uh three and a half weeks you're going to capture uh earnings on this one earnings are the 28th so you have to keep that in mind there's some event risk there but buying one of the 130 strike calls slightly out of the money to the upside sell two of the 140 strike calls and then buy one of the 145 strike calls so in essence this strategy is you're buying a call vertical the 13140 call vertical that's bullish and then offsetting some of the cost by selling the 14145 you've got short two short options at that 140 strike that's where you want it to go but you can see here the Apex of profitability at or near that 140 strike if you pay $2.40 debit for it that's going to be your risk with the break even 132 40 to the upside uh that's only about 2% above the current share price you don't need a monster move and even above 145 it's going to be more than a double in profitability on this one but you do kind of want it to grind uh higher towards that 140 strike over the next three and a half weeks okay kind more of a slow grind than the other trade for NVIDIA which capitalizes on a pretty quick pop right okay uh fair enough AMD joining in this morning 3 and a half% uh thanks again to Iana delva from spear invest thanks Tom white uh for the look at the trades there in the options
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