저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 혁명은 4차 산업혁명 초입으로 5~6년 강세장이 예상되며, 엔비디아 칩 1달러당 소프트웨어·사이버보안·인프라에 10달러 승수효과가 있다고 주장. 테슬라는 자율주행·로보택시·로봇(옵티머스)으로 가치가 크다며 2025년 base 515달러, bull 650달러 제시. 팔란티어는 next Oracle로 base/bull 100~125달러 언급. 애플 base/bull 300~350달러, 엔비디아 180~200달러 제시. 나스닥 25,000 전망, 조정 시 매수 권고. 금리 인하·관세 등 리스크는 과장된 우려로 평가.
다듬은 글
We bring in a pro, our special guest Dan Ives, managing director equity research Wedbush Securities. All right, Dan Ives is here. The man who I mean, I got to give it up to you. Palantir, Tesla, Apple, and and and you called so many of these winners when people were saying no. What gave you the strength to really stick to your tech calls, especially we've had some days, I remember in early August August, remember that big sell-off?
We've had some wild days in the year and you stuck by it. What why? I look, me and you have talked for years, right? I mean, I'm just not one that sits there and based on sort of a a blip, a macro, geopolitical, Fed moment, you know, throw the towel in. And I think we're in the midst of a fourth industrial revolution.
And as that plays out, it's still only 10:00 p.m. It was 9:00 p.m. earlier this year. It's 10:00 p.m. in the AI party. AI party goes to 4:00 a.m. Haters will hate. Get the popcorn out. I think we're only year three of a what I would it's going to be a five, six-year bull cycle. And when they talk about the AI revolution and how it goes into so many it's not just semiconductors.
Well, that's the key. I mean, it's a for every for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there's need to $10 multiplier across the rest of the pack. Software, cybersecurity, infrastructure. That's the key. That's why this is only just getting started for two trillion of AI CapEx. And that's why names if you look at yesterday, that was a pound the table moment in tech.
Just like Tokyo Black Monday. And so with that, you have all of these positives. You said how it's going to move on to soft software, cybersecurity, infrastructure. These are how it affects other sectors big picture. We have names that we're watching when it comes to the mag seven that grabbed our attention.
How about Tesla? And you project Tesla to be a huge winner? I mean, it's it's the bet for the ages when you look at Musk's bet on Trump. Because when it comes to autonomous, I think autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone. And for those Karate Kid fans, the sweep the leg moment. What's happened the beltway when it comes to regulatory.
And that's a huge part. The biggest beneficiary from all of this is going to be Musk and Tesla. And that's why you've seen a lot of bears go deep into their caves in hibernation mode over the last month. When we think about Tesla, you know, we may not have EV subsidies, but Tesla is so much more than just an automobile.
Tesla is so much more, right? And people shouldn't even think of this is just a car company or just an EV company. It's I mean, look, calling them a car company I think is actually it's an insult. This is a disruptive technology company that now when you look at autonomous and robotics, that's the next step in the Tesla story.
It's the gold at the end of the rainbow. And that's why I think we're just getting started in this next stage of Tesla as autonomous now becomes front and center over the coming years. What's your what's your I guess base case and bull case for the new year for a Tesla? Look, base case is 515 base case, bull case is 650.
And and and Nicole, I think it would be conservative when you think about two trillion. I mean, I think this is one of it if it plays out cuz we assume no value for Optimus. You start to put the value in there, you get a lot more than two trillion. All right, you called Palantir before people didn't know how to spell Palantir.
And what an incredible year. It was well over 300 something percent for the year of 2024. Soared. What is your base case and bull case on Palantir? And what will drive Palantir? What makes it so special? I want to know the stock price and what makes it special for 2025? Well, that's why it's the messier of AI.
And and look, we would say the haters, they hate Palantir is a teenager at 13. Despises a senior citizen at $75 living in Delray Beach, right? So, haters hate. They don't understand that Palantir, I believe, could be the next Oracle. And you could be looking at a hundred, hundred twenty-five dollar stock as this all plays out, specifically within AIP in the enterprise.
And that's why Palantir, I view as probably the purest play AI name in the market. And and the deals with the US Army, right? They they have something special. They're something different, aren't they? I mean, Alex Karp's on the Mount Rushmore when it comes to AI along with the godfather of AI, Jensen Nvidia, Nadella, and others.
And I think that's the secret sauce because everything that they've done, the government, three-letter agencies around the world, now it's focused on enterprise. And Nicole, it goes back to the second, third derivatives of AI. Now that party we talk about, software's invited. They're on the dance floor.
Benioff, Salesforce, now what Karp's been been on the dance floor for a while, but this just starts out to our view of the Palantir story. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I know you mentioned Oracle. We'll watch for what goes on with that name. How about Apple and Nvidia? Still love them both for the new year, right?
They're table pounders. I look at it well we've seen Nvidia, that's just a knee-jerk reaction digestion period. Demand and supply is still 15 to 1. If there's one red phone, you need that chip. Who there's only one company in the world. It's Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia. I think 4 trillion the first one to make it's Apple, right?
And then second will be followed by Nvidia and then ultimately Microsoft. But it shows when it comes to Apple, the consumer AI revolution will go through Cupertino and Cook. And they more and more that's investors are starting to recognize that. You know, I I think as as this ultimately plays out with Apple intelligence.
Yeah. Yeah, and what's your base case or your bull case on Nvidia? Your stock price there? I think 180 to 200. I think when you look at Nvidia and how that ultimately plays out. And I think when you look at Apple, 300 to 350 is ultimately going to be the base to bull case. What about the monetization of AI?
Has any company in your opinion successfully started doing this? I think it's started. I think look at Palantir. Look at ServiceNow and what McDermott's doing. Look now at Benioff in this last quarter. Where you're starting to see even with names like Snowflake, Elastic and others. My whole point is is that it starts with Nvidia, but now it's real.
The monetization's happening. And I always said like the bears have missed every transitional tech name in the last 20 years cuz they can't find in their spreadsheet. The point is this is no different. It's we're talking about a fourth industrial revolution that's being built out. And and the bears, you know, will miss it again and I think that's how this plays out as the second, third, fourth phase of you ultimately start to come in 2025.
I would love three predictions. Maybe a little quirky or a little out of the comfort zone, whether you know, it's for Tesla or Nvidia. Some predictions for 2025. I'd love three of them that will leave me scratching my head as I go to bed and I dream about the new year. Okay. So, one autonomous in terms of cyber cab a year from now that's something that ultimately starts being production for cyber cab and those are on the road by early '26.
That'll be one. Two with the nightmare from tech gone con from the FTC we are going to see tech M&A up anywhere from 50 to 75%. I think it's going to be just pandemonium the type of M&A that we see in tech. And the third thing I you know, I ultimately believe it's really going to be when it comes to Palantir.
Can Palantir start to make its road to what I believe could be the next Oracle over the next four to five years. Hm. Hm. Do you have worries about AI? I mean, does it get to be too much in any way, shape or form? The worries that people had There was a time that Elon Musk was actually clamoring, "Slow down AI for the good of the people." What happened to that conversation?
Remember that? Well, ironically, Musk is going to be key you know, in terms of the bromance with Trump that we're going to actually see AI innovation centers within the US. And you're going to see That's a huge piece that we're going to see within the beltway. Look, my view is is regulatory going to be there?
Are there some safety concerns down on road? Of course. But right now, this technology we're we're talking about something that's going to change the world. And I think many investors haven't really thought out, in my opinion, the scope and the scale of what this is going to do. And that's why you know, I believe a few, you know, call 12, 18 months from now, we're talking about NASDAQ 25,000.
I mean, Talking's going to have to start to get those hats out. Ah, and then buy on the dips, you buy on all dips, and you're not worried about recession or inflation or some crazy pullback or volatility. Nicole, my view is like this market's going higher. You buy the winners on the geopolitical, the Fed, the black swan events, all you buy in it.
I mean, that was that was what we talked about last night with investors. In other words, like, you Has anything changed in the market? No. If Fed's a little less dovish, is that moving the needle for us? No, because Fed's cutting next cut 100 bips next cut 12, 18, 24 months. And this AI revolution, it is it's still 10:00 p.m.
in this party goes to 4:00 a.m. China tariffs, there's a lot of other things going to happen, but I think bark's ultimately going to be worse than the bite when it plays out. And that's our view, right? In terms of, you know, as this plays out 2025. Great to see you, Dan Ives. Thanks for playing along, too.
Um, and giving me the outlook of all kinds for '25. It's been a great year, Dan, and we love having you on. Thank you very, very much. Thank you so much. of Wedbush.
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