저자: JonNajarian · 외국인
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연말 세금손실 매도(tax loss selling)와 워시세일 규칙을 설명하고, 슈퍼마이크로가 하든버그 리포트 이후 급락했으나 감사 이슈 재조사에서 큰 문제가 없다고 봄. 브로드컴·마벨·마이크론 등 AI 수혜주를 주목하고 IPO 호황과 금융주 수혜를 언급. 양자컴퓨팅 등 투기성 종목은 콜 매수·콜 매도 반복 전략을 제시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to morning trade live even though it's a holiday shortened week we got the end of the year we've already had some volatility and a lot of names that have been going a wild so you got to pay attention it is not an option Mr John nerian joins me here this morning Co great to see you John uh co-owner Mark Rebellion co-author of it's not an option that's right uh how you spending your last couple weeks of trading here what should we be keyed into um well at the end of the year you always get tax loss selling um and uh I I know most of your audience knows what that is but real quickly it is you're going to sell a stock that has not done well for you so whether you had shorted a stock and it went up in your face or whether you bought a stock and it came down in either case you can close that out and recognize that loss post it up against the gains that you've got in your portfolio so it's just good tax planning however there's this wash sale rule that kind of gets tricky which is you need to let that thing uh basic can't re-enter that trade whichever side it was for 30 days otherwise the government the tax man the IRS will say nope you can't recognize the still on the hook but I think it's important uh Oliver to see that uh many people do sell uh you know great example I think Super Micro computer okay stock was on fire everybody's buying it Elon Musk he's buying that and Dell and he said that publicly that he was buying those because you need that for your data centers that's what what super micro really helps build out well the stock fell apart on that Hindenburg report and then you know they had issues with trying to find a new auditor and all that stuff so anybody that was in it at 80 or 70 or 60 or got smoked yeah got smoked all the way down to 17 many of those people have been selling over the last couple weeks to recognize that loss but now the the Dirty Little Secret is of course they can't get in for 30 days so the longer they wait until the end of year it means they can't get back in till January or whatever and by then it may have hockey sticked again in my opinion so I've been aggressively buying some of these stocks that I think have just been you know we use the phrase thr baby thrown out with the bath water we use that a lot even though it's not a very pretty visual things that were negative in the tech world uh for a moment in time on the year stand out right and super micro for such a big unwind the fact that at late last month that was down on the year Y is like one of it's got to be one of the stories of the year it does it it has to be and as it turns out um Hindenburg was right they were being aggressive with the recognition of some of their revenue and so forth but um an independent survey as well as the new auditor hasn't found any wrongdoing so did the stock deserve to be down from 84 to 17 bucks probably not okay but nonetheless uh you and I know uncertainty breeds contempt in the stock market and that certainly was uncertain fair enough um and it seems like you know give them the benefit of the doubt until you know we've we've seen something more I think that when the auditor backed out it was like you know a huge red flag but to your point some of the uh second looks have said all right you know there's nothing uh there might have been smoke but there's no burning fire here so combined with the kind of late into year selling I can get behind it um the other thing too is that I think the for people trying to decide where to put the money in tech there were things like broadcom that went huge on earnings um that kind of presented these sort of like fresh ways to get into that trade uh what about on the flip side if we talk about some of those winners sure well and broadcom is exactly that you nailed it um they all of a sudden people started believing broadcom Marvel uh Micron Mar good one yeah the Other Stories of the AI uh you know because artificial intelligence isn't just here and gone it's going to keep building out for years and those guys are going to participate it's not going to be a one Winner Takes all situation I mean even the iPhone has competitors totally so I would say uh you know broadcom avgo that is one of the ones that I would definitely keep a sharp eye on um but Micron and Marvel also and then to the lesser extent uh dell and super micro because there are so many different ways to play the AI Revolution and some of of them are Hardware some of them are software um I I work with a lot of private companies right now that are going to be going public that people will say where did this thing come from you know like a c a a company that sends packets of information rather than just a steady stream means that they can take up less electricity less Demand on that data center and you know there are companies like that that are private like I say like adom beam that I love uh but there's no real way for the you know home audience to play those yet cuz they're not public well we might have some of that coming next year right supposed be pretty juicy for IPOs yep uh that's what everybody's saying and I think they're right between m&a mergers and Acquisitions and uh some of these companies coming public I think it's going to be a great year for these uh Financial companies like JP Morgan like Matrix like Goldman Sachs Bank America Merill all of these are going to benefit uh the big guys will benefit the most probably totally uh your approach to trading a super micro versus broadcom tell me how that differs one that's on the lows one that's on the highs I imagine there's uh some difference in approach for if you want to be long both what are those trades look like how do you structure them differently um I in in those two I'd say I'm much more comfortable being long broadcom okay um stock or an in the money call using it as a surrogate for stock and selling up side calls against it just you know milking that uh revenue from those calls that I'm selling but on the in the case of Super Micro because of this very high volatility there I'm just doing call spreads um I think Friday I put on the 3240 spread or something like that you know so it's eight points wide and I have all the upside for eight points but uh the tradeoff is that I only have a little bit of downside and I like that I mean do I want to swing for the fences and buy those 32s naked and just say I hope it just runs back to 50 which would be great not a stry but I yeah I don't like having to hit home runs I like hitting singles and doubles and I think putting on a call spread is the way to do it like that okay I like those details what about for some of the speculative more kind of like high beta volatile stuff I was looking at you tweet at me before coming on here I got stop seeing tweets but X um when it comes to like Quantum stuff and all of the like I I put them in that more kind of speculative camp in some of the AI because just from the technology perspective like there's a lot still that has to fall into place before like application I mean some of these are they're they're making sort of alternative to um uh to Silicon chips right now but you also look a lot of these companies and some are pre pre-revenue or they're very early Revenue how do you manage those positions I I think uh anytime you've again we said at top of the show uh uncertainty breeds cont attempt um it also means there's opportunity um so how do I address that as as you might imagine Oliver because you and I just talk about it all the time I like to address that by defining my risk on Entry by buying calls so I have bought a lot of call spreads in qut okay um qbts you know these are both Quantum sort of uh plays if you will they've gone ballistic yeah I mean it's not uncommon in the last two weeks to see them up 20 25% even 30% one day and then two days later down 177% so those are the kinds of back and forth that scare investors especially if you're buying the stock CU what if you were late to the party getting in when it was going up 35% next day it's down 17 and then it's right back up to 20 you're probably selling the bottom and buying the top a lot right Co and whip back and forth yep I would buy a two or three Monon out option and know that defined my Risk by doing that and then on big rallies sell upside calls against it okay and when it pulls back maybe buy those calls back the ones that I've sold and just keep doing that you know rinse and repeat as they say over and over again because that's going to be a volatile sector probably as volatile as any other than may an FDA approval of a cancer drug or an AIDS drug or whatever it might be a really good point on that last part there is that this is a unique brand I think a breed of volatility that we're seeing for these cuz we've gone through a few of these in the Overlook I mean some of them seem like they they could be really incredible and here in Chicago we're building a big Quantum Center like the tech is going to get there at some point but as far as like early stage this stuff seems way earlier stage than anything we've seen from the AI that's actually generating big sales I mean this is like on the other end of the spectrum right I mean if if uh Nvidia is selling chips for $555,000 a chip um obviously that's pretty significant Revenue um on the other hand if a Quantum Computing um startup even if they've been around for five or six years they're just public for a couple um people are not as willing to say I think these guys are going to be a multi-billion dollar Revenue producer next year they might have to look even further down the road and the further you look down the road they're saying well they're going to make money but the question is when how much and uh are they is it going to be uh you know flooded like the market is kind of flooding right now with everybody putting AI SoundHound is AI oh yeah um and S so n it's like okay they're music I get it um but they're also um anything to do with voice or sound right so if indeed you're somebody that's saying um uh SoundHound is going to be this multi-billion dollar Beth which obviously many of us believe that um it's not going to just be about music it's going to be about any kind of sound going forward forward not just you know uh uh Christmas songs wow I didn't even realize it had gotten to 21 bucks look at that graph it's funny cuz earlier this year I I I actually found their um when they first started rallying we talked about it because uh they did they do have an amazing uh uh uh voice and music recognition obviously their Tech is I thought really impressive but then it's uh you know at 20 bucks I was like impressed when it was at 10 it's pretty incredible so your point is on that stuff sell the calls when it starts to Rally against your position what a coups basically yeah I'm picking two Monon out calls and then I'm repeating over and over again selling upside calls against the calls in other words a higher strike and then buying them back as the thing pulls back because they all pull back nothing goes straight up even though that graph looked like it went straight up I guarantee there were some back and filling moves over the past few months great stuff John great to catch up likewise thank you very much Oliver fun to talk some names as always John aerian co-owner of Mark Rebellion co-author of it's not an option
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