저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 인플레이션 악화 시 테이퍼링을 가속해야 하며, 이는 나스닥 등 성장주에 큰 조정(10% 이상)을 줄 수 있는 최대 리스크다. 인플레이션·연준 전망: CPI가 실제 인플레이션을 크게 과소 반영하고 있으며, 10월 13일 CPI 발표 때 물가가 뜨거우면 문제가 된다. 파월 의장이 테이퍼링 가속 가능성을 열어둔 상태다. 시장 영향: 테이퍼링 가속 시 장기 금리 상승이 예상되며, 이는 성장주(나스닥) 하락과 경기민감주·가치주 상대 강세로 이어질 수 있다. 시장이 이에 대비돼 있지 않다고 봤다. 다만 현재 주식이 특별히 고평가된 것은 아니라고 했다. 테이퍼링 일정: 현재 가이던스는 11월 발표 후 내년 중반 종료인데, 연간 150~200억 달러 수준의 매월 축소가 필요하다. 인플레이션이 계속 높으면 종료 시점이 앞당겨지고 금리 인상 논의로 이어질 수 있다. 비트코인·크립토: 일부 기관의 비트코인 관심은 이해하지만, 비트코인은 나스닥100과 상관성이 높아 안전자산이나 분산투자 수단으로 보기 어렵다는 취지의 출연자 발언이 있었다. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 가능성을 강조하면서도 시장 붕괴(베어마켓)는 예상하지 않는다고 밝혔다.
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and potentially look toward an interest rate hike next year right and i have become more concerned particularly the interest rate picture and that that's depends on the inflation picture now friday we're going to get the pce but that's going to be a benign number uh because that's based on the cpi which we know is way understating what the inflation is i think when we get the cpi next month and if it really runs hot then we could be in trouble because if you listen to chairman powell he opened the door for faster tapering now i think the market is is okay with the tapering ends in the middle of next year but if inflation runs hotter and it's not looking good anywhere on the inflation front uh he will have to accelerate that and very honestly the market is not prepared for that now it may not be till october 13th when we get that cpi there may be concern earlier but that's the big challenge for the market and i really think that's one reason why you know you very much i see the nasdaq be underperforming uh the standard value stocks uh and cyclical stock professor siegel if that happens so an accelerated taper as opposed to suddenly rate hikes what what would that lead the market to do are we talking a finally that five percent to ten percent pullback or a much bigger collapse than that well if if he has to accelerate it i think you're in correction territory um which is more than ten percent i'm not calling for a bear market uh and this could be after the market creeps up another three four percent till mid month or later it's so hard to time these but if there's a faster taper there will be a major correction i mean that the market uh i mean you know the story that the low yields are the reason if there's a faster taper that means the yields are going to be rising earlier and that will change the mindset um i'm not going to say it's happening right now and i don't think stocks are particularly overvalued now at all i'm just saying that is the big risk going forward and i'm i am nervous about the trends that i see in the inflation so so just to be clear professor siegel the current timeline on the taper as the fed laid it out or hinted strongly last time was that it would begin he would announce it in in november and it would wrap up by sometime in the middle of of next year is that an accelerated enough timeline though for the market to be wobbling here i that's an okay timeline but if inflation runs hotter and i think it will run hotter but if it does there will be pressure on him finishing the taper earlier and saying we now have to move closer to when we raise rates to slow down the inflation clearly the market is not ready for that that is number one threat i think to the stock market for the rest of 2021.
josh you still quite relaxed if these types of things do play out and we do have accelerated tapering yeah i wanna i wanna ask a follow-up to uh professor uh good good see good to see you my friend what would be the urgency for accelerated taper if they're not even thinking about raising interest rates so i have this theory that the reason why the stimulus is 120 billion a month right 40 billion mortgage bonds 80 billion treasuries is specifically so that they would have a year to take uh 10 billion off of it similar to the last time they did a taper they would have a full year each month month by month taking less and less off what would put them in a position where all of a sudden they would it would be worth it to accelerate that and say oh by the way next month we're taking 20 billion off the uh the stimulus it seems to me that they would never do that almost no matter what happens because of that continuity they're trying to provide us all with so what do you think would cause them to suddenly do that well josh i think it's going to be bigger than 10 billion a month i mean to finish by the middle of next year you you need to do pay you need to do 15 to 20 billion a month but if we start seeing uh you know point six point seven percent per month data inflation data october november december listen we all know cpi is way understating the housing inflation the renault inflation is almost nil in the data right now and it's all going to be look at the shortages that are going to come in the fourth quarter i mean they're you know they're not measuring the inflation because the people can't buy the goods many people say i'll pay 10 15 more to have the bridge today if i can well they're going to come on and they're going to come on more expensive and uh you know the fed cannot ignore the inflation madden mandate it has a dual mandate not just the employment which it says it is almost met but if it ignores the inflation that is number one fault of the central bank that is very detrimental they're going to have to move faster and the market is not prepared yeah it's certainly a risk out there hang on because we do want to hit it is a risk it's underway right now our headline conference some of the biggest names on wall street advising investors how to navigate this market leslie picker here with some of the highlights from the day leslie hey sir one of the more confusing ways of navigating the market is through crypto although it has been a huge outperformer of alpha recently delivering more than 250 returns for expert investors in that area now several prominent managers making news at the delivering alpha conference with their crypto views today here's tomah bravo founder orlando bravo how could you not love crypto you know look look at the movement aren't we all tired of paying all those transaction fees and exchange rates and seeing currencies in different countries being completely devalued and watching our uh friends in argentina carry calculators around to try to purchase based on inflation rates i mean crypto is just a great system it's frictionless it's decentralized and young people want their own financial system so it is it is here to stay bravo shared that he owns bitcoin and is quote very bullish on it andreessen horowitz's katie hahn is considered one of the most foremost investors in crypto she said many in the crypto industry actually want regulation but it can't be a one-size-fits-all approach a lot of people there's a myth out there that you know those in the crypto industry don't want regulation and that is actually i can say a myth it's not that the industry does not want regulation i always say it wants clarity but it also does not want to be treated as a monolith tpg's jim coulter said he thinks bitcoin is quote interesting but carbon credits as a currency is quote really interesting now still to come social capitals chamath palahapatia in what's sure to be a fiery conversation beginning in about 20 minutes time guys all right leslie thank you leslie picker by the way not too late to sign up for that conversation or for delivering alpha you can get all that great content on demand just have to go to deliveringalpha.com to register josh not too surprising to see the institutional love around bitcoin we know that's been happening what what's what's notable is how bitcoin has acted during some of these big selling days on the back of higher yields bitcoin looks a little more like a tech stock in terms of the act the price action than gold or any kind of safe haven currency which a lot of people embrace it as what do you make of it yeah i'm glad you noticed that bitcoin's correlation to the nasdaq 100 disqualifies it from some of the ways in which it's being described as an aid to a portfolio hopefully that doesn't continue for very much longer but you're absolutely right i think a lot of the sound bites coming from conferences in general i was at salt a couple of weeks ago i heard all the stuff coming out of this one i would imagine that'll continue through the end of the year i think it makes people in what's being referred to as tradfi traditional finance feel like they're cool you see them wearing sneakers and stuff now they're wearing t-shirts they're trying to talk about bitcoin as much as they can i totally understand that impulse i totally get it i'm not mad about it um but i think that there's very little substance to most of what people are saying about it um these are not the sort of people that are sitting in the discord chat and listening to people explain papers and and white papers and really going through these projects these are not the people listening to the into the ether uh podcast or reading packy mccormick these are guys that are like hey man this is the new cool thing all right let's trade that and if you tell me in six months there's some other thing that's going up they'll move on to that so i wouldn't worry too much about this institution and that hedge fund quote adopting crypto most of these people will gamble on anything josh brown thank you very much we'll leave it there no i'm right you won't say it but that's what i'm here to say no right that's why we turn to you all right be good see you later bye well thank you up next on the show blackrock's russ kostrich on whether he believes today's muted bounce is for real and whether and which sectors he's recommending to his clients on any other market pullbacks and then later former pepsico ceo indranui on how the pandemic has distorted the work-life balance and how corporate america can help fix that we're back in just two minutes
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