저자: JeremySiegel—제목·설명란기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 1월 시장은 변동성이 컸으나 최근 반등했다는 진행자 질문으로 시작한다. CPI는 예상보다 나쁘지 않았지만 여전히 높아 연준이 작년 예상보다 더 공격적으로 긴축해야 한다는 것이 시걸의 판단이다. 유가는 배럴당 83달러로 사상 최고치 근처이며 2022년에 좋지 않은 신호라고 본다. 인플레이션의 주원인은 공급망보다 과잉 통화(2020년 3월 이후 통화량 35% 증가)에 따른 수요 문제라고 주장한다. 다만 임금은 쉽게 내려오지 않을 수 있다고 인정한다. 원자재 지수(CRB, 골드만삭스 지수)는 사상 최고치 근처이며 목재 등 일부만 고점에서 내려왔다. 채권은 인플레이션 때문에 실질 수익률이 마이너스가 되므로 최악의 자산으로 보며, 현금도 연 7% 인플레이션에 잠식된다고 말한다. 실물자산인 주식을 유지하되 금리 상승기에는 성장주·기술주보다 배당주와 경기민감주가 상대적으로 강할 것으로 본다. 배당을 올릴 수 있는 기업은 인플레이션에 방어력이 있다는 입장이다. 미국 10년물 금리는 단기 헤지 수요 때문에 2.5~3% 수준으로 오르지 못하고 있다는 분석을 내놓는다. S&P500은 5100~5200 전망이 타당하다고 동의했다.
다듬은 글
you happy new year welcome back thank you scott so where are we in this market well it feels like it's a little treacherous tumultuous and then all of a sudden we've had a nice rally and maybe we're feeling better and yields are cooperating yeah well but you know i think we have to look at that cpi report this morning now wasn't as bad as some had thought but it wasn't good and as one of our participants here said i'm looking at oil at 83 i mean that's like one dollar from its high um you know energy was minus four percent in that december figure it's not going to be minus 4.4 in the january figure everything is pointing upward i mean you know some of the people saying oh well the services is we look at hospital services do we know what's happening in the hospitals do you think that those services are going to stay only one percent above the cost of what it was a year ago everything is going up and as i've said scott and you know you've interviewed me all through last year the fed is going to have to be far more aggressive than certainly what they thought last year and in my opinion far more aggressive than what the street thinks this year but professor okay i'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say okay you're right everything is going up theoretically it is everything that's going up but it's not going to stay up forever professor this is all pushed on by mostly i know some are going to be throwing their stuff at the tv saying well it's the fed the fed the fed the pandemic and we got supply shortages as a result of the pandemic in a lot of stuff commodities and semis and autos and this and that i mean i could go on and on and that's the principal reason that you've got the inflation that you do and then come later in the spring and in the summer it's going to moderate why is that not going to happen i don't think that's true i think it's too much money i mean and you have a 35 increase since march of 2020 something that we have never seen before when 2020 money growth exceeds anything in our 150-year history that we have money growth um and this year is is um 2021 was 15 money growth um this is way too much money this is a demand problem not just a supply chain chain problem this is too much money chasing too few goods um and you know flights prices start i'm not going to go down the question is what are they going to stop going up and uh you might be right it will happen you might be you might later today look you might be right on wages those may not come down but other things have already come down along the commodity complex uh the co the general commodity indices take a look at the crb index take a look at the goldman sachs index they are right near their all-time highs yes certainly lumber had soared last year and it has come down from its highs and a few of others but if you take uh uh an average of them they are near their own time highs and as i said you take the most important one of all oil um that it's back up at its all-time high despite you know the the the omicron virus and the travel dearth of uh the cancellation of um of flights and and planes which is definitely a big user of oil all that oil is near its all-time high that does not bode well for 2022.
um you you sound like you're running around they're saying the sky is falling the sky is falling are you selling everything you have i mean no no no no listen as i said stocks are real assets you just can't hold paper assets um which are bonds they're the worst stocks are real assets what what higher real rates does mean is the rotation that we've been talking about that certainly happened in the first week of this year and i think it's going to happen throughout the rest of this year no i'm not out of stocks but i still because people are going yeah tina right there is no alternative where are you going to go uh you're going to go to bonds you're going to go to cash which is disappearing at 7 inflation which is going to go higher in my opinion is disappearing at seven percent a year because you're getting no interest on it okay so so you're understanding do you want to stay in stocks but it also sounds to me like you're suggesting that this is finally values moment or cyclical stocks are going to dramatically outperform growth and technology because of where rates in the fed are going to have to do their thing is that right well you know certainly i think so i think listen dividend dividend stocks are protected against inflation because firms have been able to raise their prices their cash flows and increase their dividends and i think that is what investors are going to seek in 2022 dividend per day you could go to tips at minus one that's not an answer you have built in paying stocks at two and a half three three and a half four well protected dividends that are rising and you have capital gains professor uh you're talking you are talking jenny harrington's language i need to get her into the conversation right now i at least need to see her on camera make sure she is still sitting in her chair and not standing up jumping and cheering at what you're my heart i am and my heart's growing three sizes and thank you so much professor siegel for the endorsement on the dividend stocks um one of the interesting charts that no thank you one of the interesting charts that joe showed before was the correlation of the nasdaq and the 10-year treasury and as you know there's an even more interesting correlation between cpi and the 10-year treasury so i would love for you to talk a little bit about where you think the tenure goes as it correlates so closely historically with cpi well the certainly if we go back in the 70s we had very very high interest rates and high inflation uh a lot of people are puzzled why isn't the ten year higher than it is now and i've written about this the ten year has become the favorite short-term hedge of so many money managers because we know if the dow you know something bad happens it dials down two or three thousand points your treasuries are up three points and that cushion that insurance policy has become and the statistics show that more valuable over time it's not an answer for long-term investors but short-term investors who like a little short-term cushion are willing to pay the price i think they're paying far too high a price for that but that's one reason why the 10-year is not to two and a half or three percent now is that there's been a tremendous flood of demand into longer term treasuries as that so-called risk asset hedge hey professor can you do me a favor i don't know if you have a class to go teach or if you have an appointment can you can you stick around can we take a break and come back and continue our conversation i got to pay some bills but i don't want to lose you can you can you hang with me um unfortunately today i do have something at 12 30.
oh professor but another day scott all right let me ask you let me ask you one last question though one last question there are forecasts that we can hit i don't know 5100 this year 5200 on the s ps that make sense to you yes i mean it does because again people are going to say i've got to be in real assets interest rates are going to go up but that makes bonds worse by the way i mean you until you wait for the interest rates to go up and still what's a two or two and a half and a three percent bond when you're having five six seven percent inflation that's not a good answer either all right place to be all right you go to your appointment i apologize for negotiating with you on live television but i wanted to see how far i could go so we'll talk to you again soon absolutely thank you you take care that's professor jeremy siegel at the wharton school financials hitting record highs again big banks reporting earnings in less than 48 hours from now we have a number of bullish calls on one stock ahead of that we'll talk about it next
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