저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 제러미 시겔은 2022년 6월 시장이 이미 2023년 경기침체를 상당 부분 반영하고 있으며 현재 주가 수준은 저점에 가깝다고 본다. 밸류에이션: S&P500은 주가수익비율(PER) 약 17배, S&P 기술주는 13~14배로 낮은 수준이라고 평가했다. 금리 15% 시기 PER 10배와 비교하며 현재 저평가를 주장했다. 경기침체 및 과거 조정: 2차 세계대전 이후 평균 경기침체 조정폭(진행자 데이터 기준 -31%)을 언급하며 진행자가 반박했다. 시겔은 현재는 가벼운 경기침체(mild recession)를 가정하며, 금융위기·닷컴버블 등 과거보다 침체 강도는 낮을 것이라고 봤다. 금리 및 배당: 연준 기준금리 3~3.5% 수준에서는 배당수익률 3~4%가 매력적이지 않다는 진행자 주장에 대해, 시겔은 역사적으로 배당은 인플레이션과 함께 움직여 실질 수익을 제공한다고 반박했다. 리츠(REITs) 및 변동성: 진행자는 리츠 배당 4%도 자산 가치 하락으로 5년치 배당이 한 주에 날아갈 수 있다고 지적했다. 변동성지수 VIX 30 수준에서 3~4% 배당은 매력이 낮다고 봤다. 시겔은 리츠 지수가 장기적으로 S&P500과 거의 일치한다고 언급했다. 장기 투자 전략: 단기 투자자·트레이더에게는 충격적인 장세이나, 장기 투자자가 배당을 재투자한다면 낮은 주가가 오히려 유리하다고 주장했다. 연준 전망: 다음 주 FOMC에서 50bp 인상이 예고된 상황에서, 파월 의장이 7월 인상분 50bp를 앞당겨 100bp를 단행하는 등 시장에 충격을 주는 방식으로 서사를 통제해야 한다고 제안했다. 이 경우 초기 대폭 매도 후 반등이 나올 것이라고 봤다. 다만 파월은 점진적 접근을 선호해 실제 실행 가능성은 낮다고 평가했다. 연착륙 및 인플레이션: 연준이 연착륙(soft landing)을 달성할 수 있다는 입장에 대해 어려움이 있다고 인정하면서도, 2020년 대규모 재정 지원 시 금리를 올렸어야 했다고 연준의 과거 실수를 지적했다. 주거비 인플레이션이 BLS 방법론으로 과소평가되어 실제 인플레이션은 지난 1년간 10%를 넘었다고 주장했다. 래리 서머스의 관련 논문도 언급했다. 향후 인플레이션: 인플레이션 압력이 파이프라인에 남아 있어 금리를 빠르게 올리면 제동이 과도해진다고 보았다.
다듬은 글
all right let's welcome in our headliner today we're so happy to have jeremy uh siegel with us the professor from the wharton school uh professor it's great to have you on a day like this and i guess my first question would be did the bear mark kit rally just died today well as as one of your guests said i think we're closer to the lows than the highs and yeah you know it's interesting and it the s p is not yet in a bear market i'm not saying it won't get there but it's like certainly nasdaq is in a bear market but listen to what josh quoted percentage declines far greater than we've had today uh i think largely earnings will be met and that means stocks are selling s p is selling at 17 times earnings s p x tech is selling at 13 to 14 times early you rarely see it that low i mean you saw that 10 times earnings when the interest rates were 15 yes i i actually think there the market is already discounting a recession in 2023 it's being priced german level today i'm i'm so sorry the average the average recessionary correction since world war ii and i'm using your data is negative 31 how can you seriously say that we're already pricing in a recession well i think we're pressing in a mild recession um uh don't forget that included some whopper recessions that we had uh the financial crisis uh and and of course when we came off of the tech bubble where the market was far more overvalued than what we had today um i you know i'm not saying how severe the recession actually will be and and also josh we're in a much lower interest rate world than we were back then i mean uh again there is no count even with the fed all right so the fed raises a three three and a half is that real competition for a real asset which is stocks where uh you know the dividend yield on dividend yield it's not three or four percent and history shows that that absolutely moves with inflation so you're getting a real return i mean that's so much different than the world where you could get real rates of four and five percent um back uh i think that's a great time i think that's a great point but i think i think that's a great point but uh jeremy when you see when you see the types of high dividend yielding sectors x energy so let's just take reits for example it's great to have have a four percent nominal dividend yield even in a uh and if inflation is eight percent which i don't think anyone thinks is a long term but okay four percent but if you could wipe out five years worth of dividends in one bad week of trading via capital depreciation in the value of the asset um this second time you don't go back in and you're certainly not looking at the nominal dividend rate in volatility we're we're at 30 vicks so three and four percent yields are are not great yeah the fed is raising real interest rates and the read index has fallen almost the same as as the s p from a tie and by the way it had an incredible run and actually in the long run the read index is amazing it almost absolutely matches the s p 500 and you know as well as i know josh if you're long-term investor and you reinvest actually a period of time when you reinvest at a higher dividend yield once this is all over gives you more stock and more wealth than you would have beforehand so yeah if you're a short-term investor and a trader this is traumatic if you're long-term and young and reinvesting your dividends actually you should welcome lower stock price professional um professionally with that let me um let's do this if you would i just like to take a pause uh on that uh poignant note that you just made let's just take a quick break if you wouldn't mind staying with us until the other side we're back right after this with professor jeremy siegel much more ahead for the fed and does it change in any way in your mind what the fed is going to do next week when they've all been telegraphed not all but they have telegraphed 50 basis points well actually you know i was listening to jim cramer earlier i absolutely agree they got to take control of this narrative and what i would recommend is what powell should do is say listen we're going to bring forward we said 50 basis points this month in july he should bring forward the 50 basis points from july and say we're doing 100 basis points next week and then we're going to look around and we're going to see how much more we do i think the economy is cool i mean you know consumer sentiment and we we see that and he may not have to do much more um but i think he's got to get control of that narrative and say listen we're not going to dribble out the medicine let's take it now turn around and you know look and see how it affects the economy what's going on and then we'll make a further decision because i think this this slow telegraphed approach that we have to tell everyone months in advance what we're going to do month event is just that's not working and it certainly hadn't worked over the last year so if they did that let's just for argument's sake suggest that they do how does the stock market react well i think if if they did that you would have a huge sell-off and then a rally i think hey they are doing something um they're taking control of the narrative um that's what i think would happen i think it would be a huge initial sell-off because everyone knee-jerks to the interest rate and then they're going to say you know hey he's bringing it forward and looking around and let's see how much the economy actually does cool now that all said scott i don't he's so deliberate i am so afraid to so-called shock the market that i think that that's a long shot he's going to do it but i think that's certainly if i was on on the board and jay powell that's what i would do well they are maintaining this view however fragile it might be that they can engineer a soft-ish landing right and that would sort of fly in the face of of that projection because if you go a hundred um it's gonna be hard to still maintain that we can pull this off but we can so deftly pull this off well you know listen as we've talked about the the mistakes of the fed were all made last year and really in late into in 2020 when they provided the government all the money for this you know five trillion dollar covet fighting package without saying go to the bond market and get it we'd have the interest rates raised rise in and we wouldn't have the problem right now so listen whether he goes 150 50 that is six weeks apart there's still going to be a lot of inflation in that pipeline it's it's it doesn't work immediately we're gonna go through that inflation do you wanna totally slam on the brakes and send us all through the windshield i don't think so i think in a way listen yeah we got a lot of money in this system it's working its way through by the way the real inflation we've had over the last year has been more than 10 percent because we know that the housing inflation is way understated from what it actually is because of the methodology of the bureau of labor statistics uh actually larry summers just had really said and then be our paper on that and i've been talking about that a long time too so really we really had a lot of inflation more will come through more will come through on the reports that i'll actually come through in reality we've actually had a lot of them hey professor i'm grateful for your time today uh thanks so much for being with us very much always look forward to our conversations especially on days like these that's professor jeremy siegel from the wharton school let's get the headline let's welcome in our headliner today we're so happy to have jeremy uh siegel with us the professor from the wharton school uh professor it's great to have you on a day like this and i guess my first question would be did the bear mark get rally just die today well as as one of your guests said i think we're closer to the lows than the highs and yeah you know it's interesting it the s p is not yet in a bear market i'm not saying it won't get there but it's like certainly nasdaq is in a bear market but listen to what josh quoted percentage declines far greater than we've had today uh i think largely earnings will be met and that means stocks are selling s p is selling at 17 times earnings s p x tech is selling at 13 to 14 times early you rarely see it that low i mean you saw that 10 times earnings when the interest rates were 15 yes i i actually think there the market is already discounting a recession in 2023.
it's being priced jeremy level today i'm i'm so sorry the average the average recessionary correction since world war ii and i'm using your data is negative 31 how can you seriously say that we're already pricing in a recession well i think we're pressing in a mild recession um uh don't forget that included some whopper recessions that we had uh the financial crisis uh and and of course when we came off of the tech bubble where the market was far more overvalued than what we had today um you know i'm not saying how severe the recession actually will be and and also josh we're in a much lower interest rate world than we were back then i mean uh again there is no count even with the fed all right so the fed raises a three three and a half is that real competition for a real asset which is stocks where uh you know the dividend yield giving you all this actually three or four percent and history shows that that absolutely moves with inflation so you're getting a real return i mean that's so much different than the world where you could get real rates of four and five percent um back uh i think that's a great time i think that's a great point but i think i think that's a great point but uh jeremy when you see when you see the types of high dividend yielding sectors x energy so let's just take reits for example it's great to have have a four percent nominal dividend yield even in a uh and if inflation is eight percent which i don't think anyone thinks is a long term but okay four percent but if you could wipe out five years worth of dividends in one bad week of trading via capital depreciation in the value of the asset um this second time you don't go back in and you and you're certainly not looking at the nominal dividend rate in volatility we're we're at 30 vicks so three and four percent yields are are not great yeah the fed is raising real interest rates and the read index has fallen almost the same as as the s p from its high and by the way it had an incredible run and actually in the long run the read index is amazing it almost absolutely matches the s p 500 and you know as well as i know josh if you're long-term investor and you reinvest actually a period of time when you reinvest at a higher dividend yield once this is all over gives you more stock and more wealth than you would have beforehand so yeah if you're a short-term investor and a trader this is traumatic if you're long-term and young and reinvesting your dividends actually you should welcome lower stock price professional um professionally with that let me um let's do this if you would i'd just like to take a pause uh on that uh poignant note that you just made let's just take a quick break if you wouldn't mind staying with us until the other side we're back right after this with professor jeremy siegel much more ahead or the fed and does it change in any way in your mind what the fed is going to do next week when they've all but telegraphed not all but they have telegraphed 50 basis points well actually you know uh i was listening to jim cramer earlier i absolutely agree they got to take control of this narrative and what i would recommend is what powell should do is say listen we're going to bring forward we said 50 basis points this month in july he should bring forward the 50 basis points from july and say we're doing 100 basis points next week and then we're going to look around and we're going to see how much more we do i think the economy is cool i mean you know consumer sentiment and we we see that and he may not have to do much more um but i think he's got to get control of that narrative and say listen we're not going to dribble out the medicine let's take it now turn around and you know look and see how it affects the economy what's going on and then we'll make a further decision because i think this uh this slow telegraphed approach that we have to tell everyone months in advance what we're going to do month event is just that's not working and it certainly hadn't worked over the last year so if they did that let's just for argument's sake suggests that they do how does the stock market react well i think if if they did that you would have a huge sell-off and then a rally i think hey they are doing something um they're taking control of the narrative um that's what i think would happen i think there would be a huge initial sell-off because everyone knee-jerks to the interest rate and then they're gonna say you know hey he's bringing it forward and looking around and let's see how much the economy actually does cool now that all said scott i don't he's so deliberate i am so afraid to so-called shock the market that i think that that's a long shot he's going to do it but i think that's certainly if i was on on the board and jay powell that's what i would do well they are maintaining this view however fragile it might be that they can engineer a soft-ish landing right and that would sort of fly in the face of that projection because if you go 100 it's going to be hard to still maintain that we can pull this off but we can so deftly pull this off well you know listen as we've talked about the the mistakes of the fed were all made last year and really in late into in 2020 when they provided the government all the money for this you know five trillion dollar covet fighting package without saying go to the bond market and get it we'd have the interest rates raised rise in and we wouldn't have the problem right now so listen whether he goes 100 150 50 that is six weeks apart there's still going to be a lot of inflation in that pipeline it's it's it doesn't work immediately we're going to go through that inflation do you want to totally slam on the brakes and send us all through the windshield i don't think so i think in a way listen yeah we got a lot of money in this system it's working its way through by the way the real inflation we've had over the last year has been more than 10 because we know that the housing inflation is way understated from what it actually is because of the methodology of the bureau of labor statistics uh actually larry summers just said an nbr paper on that and i've been talking about that a long time too so really we really had a lot of inflation more will come through more will come through on the reports than they'll actually come through in reality we've actually had a lot of them hey professor i'm grateful for your time today uh thanks so much for being always look forward to our conversations especially on days like these that's professor jeremy siegel from the wharton school let's get the head
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