저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼은 2022년 기준 경제 허리케인이 임박했다고 경고하며, 그 근거로 과도한 재정·통화 부양, 연준의 양적긴축(QT), 우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 원자재 충격을 제시했다. 첫째, 2008년 이후 경제 회복은 정상적이지 않았고 부양책으로 소비가 인위적으로 유지되고 있다. 2조 달러 규모의 2020년 부양금이 소비를 6~9개월 더 지탱할 것으로 보았으나, 이는 소득이 아닌 국가 지원금에 의한 소비라 실질 신호가 왜곡돼 있다. 둘째, 연준의 QT는 월 최대 950억 달러 규모로 대차대조표를 줄이는 전례 없는 조치다. 과잉 유동성을 제거해 부동산 등 투기를 억제하려는 목적이며, 은행과 중앙은행이 국채를 사던 구조가 매도 쪽으로 바뀌어 시장 변동성이 커질 것으로 보고 있다. 셋째, 우크라이나 전쟁으로 유럽에서 1945년 이후 최대 규모의 분쟁이 벌어지며 밀·석유·가스 등 원자재 가격이 흔들리고 있다. 다이먼은 단기적으로 유가가 배럴당 150~175달러까지 오를 수 있고, 가난한 나라들이 석유·가스 대신 석탄을 쓰면서 탄소 배출이 줄지 않을 것이라고 전망했다. 투자 측면에서는 변동성 확대에 대비해 금 같은 귀금속 등 변동성이 낮은 자산 비중을 늘리는 것을 제시했다. 주식은 고인플레이션과 스태그플레이션에 민감한 기술주 등 일부 섹터가 특히 타격을 받을 수 있다고 언급했다. 영상 자체는 다이먼 발언을 인용하며 추가 시장 붕괴 가능성을 강조하는 구성이며, 특정 종목 매수·매도 의견은 명시적으로 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Jamie Daimon, the CEO of America's largest bank, JP Morgan Chase, has exposed himself like never before, scaring investors of an impending economic hurricane. He has not only gone further, but has also explained exactly three reasons why JP Morgan is starting to prepare for the worst. I assure you, it's worth discovering them because they can prove useful for balancing our investments.
Jamie Daimon immediately begins his speech by saying that he hates the expression " unprecedented," but in this case, we must take it into account. He adds, "We are in a situation that has never happened before, and you must question your ability to predict what will happen." The first reason is that strong economic growth in America is driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus.
The economic recovery from 2008 to today has not been normal, precisely because of this forced economic stimulation. Jamie Daimon claims that the data is completely distorted, distorted by inflation and the stimulus checks still in the pockets of consumers who continue to spend. Under normal circumstances, this would be a strong economic signal, but in the current situation, it is only apparently so.
Consumers are not spending what they have earned by producing something by offering a service, but they continue to spend using money given away by the state, think that the two trillion dollar stimulus introduced in 2020 was so strong that Daimon believes it will not stop consumer spending for another six or nine months.
This time is different because the Fed is in this situation with an expected increase in interest rates and the QT, the quantitative tightening, is an economic maneuver with which the Federal Reserve reduces their balance sheet by a maximum of 95 billion per month. Needless to say, quantitative easing of this magnitude to revive the economy during the pandemic had never been seen before and consequently the quantitative tightening also has no historical equals.
This does nothing but increase fears among investors. Jamie Daimon says that this operation will be written in the history books, summing up what worked and what didn't. In his opinion, the Fed has no other choice but to do the QT because there is too much liquidity in the system and by removing part of the liquidity they should be able to reduce speculation such as that in the real estate sector.
This is precisely the second reason for the coming economic hurricane brought to light by Daimon if Let's look back at 2010 and observe that the largest buyers of government bonds were the central banks, the banks of the monetary circuits, banks that had to increase their liquidity established by regulation.
Now instead the banks are full of government bonds and the central banks will try to sell not buy. Governments are in fiscal deficit. This is a big change in the flow of funds worldwide and JP Morgan is preparing for increased market volatility. The third reason is Ukraine. Since 1945, there hasn't been a war in Europe and given the complexity of the conflict, it is very difficult to predict exactly what will happen and especially how long it will last.
Jamie Daimon specifies that a prediction is useless and often in any case they turn out to be wrong. The war is going badly and has unexpected consequences. We are seeing the consequences in the raw materials market: wheat, oil, gas. Daimon says that from his point of view, adequate measures are not being taken to protect Europe from the increase in the price of oil in the short term and not enough money is being invested to protect the world from the increase in the price over the next five years.
Reflection follows confirming that the price of oil will probably rise towards 150-175 dollars a barrel and all this will have a significant environmental impact. CO2 levels will not decrease as many believe because poor countries will stop buying oil and gas, replacing it with coal. The three reasons why those geniuses Daimon went out on a limb saying to prepare for the coming economic hurricane are therefore the strong unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, the Fed which has its hands tied and has no other choice but to make the QT and the war in Ukraine which directly impacts raw materials.
By now we have understood that the global economy is in danger and investing in these circumstances is certainly not easy. Expecting an increase in volatility, we could decide to invest in less volatile asset classes such as precious materials, for example, dedicating part of our portfolio to gold as highlighted by Jaime Daimon himself.
The current situation is unprecedented and it is not certain that everything will be better in the long term. As regards stocks, there are some sectors that will be more sensitive to strong market fluctuations or that will be affected by the current situation. Most impacted by high inflation such as the groff shares of tech companies here at the top right you can find the video on the three best companies to invest in during stagflation so you can analyze them yourself and delve more deeply into the various sectors.
I also invite you to watch the video you see above on the latest updates from Michael Berry where he opens our eyes to the current market situation and why the collapse is now upon us. See you in the next video bye.
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