저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 마이클 버리가 미국 증시 하락(S&P500 1,900 가능성)을 예상하며 금을 대안으로 제시한다는 내용이다. 마이클 버리 관련 주장: 과거 2008년 부동산 붕괴, 닷컴 버블, 암호화폐 폭락을 예측했다고 소개. 최근 패시브(인덱스) 투자가 거품이라고 주장하며 인덱스 펀드 자금 유입이 개별 기업 가치와 무관하다고 봄. 13F 관련: 버리의 13F 보고서에는 매수 종목만 나타나고 공매도 포지션은 드러나지 않으며, 원자재·해외주식도 제외되어 실제 포지션 파악이 어렵다고 설명. 증시 전망: 버리는 5월 S&P500이 1,900포인트까지 빠질 수 있다고 발언(현재 대비 약 53% 하락). 영상은 올해 S&P500이 약 16% 하락했고 반등과 하락을 반복 중이라고 설명. 근거 지표: 주가수익비율(PER)이 평균 15 대비 약 20으로 높다고 제시. 연준 금리 인상 기대(12월 0.75%p 인상 전망) 및 세인트루이스 연은 불라드 총재의 추가 인상 시사 언급. 기술적 분석: 3,200 지지선 이탈 시 약 20% 하락 가능, 1,900 포인트는 2016년 저점 수준으로 제시. 2007년 연준 금리 인하 이후 평균 약 28% 하락 사례 언급. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 작년 11월 이후 약 72% 하락했으며, 버리는 FTX 사태 등으로 암호화폐 신뢰 붕괴를 주장. 비트코인의 인플레이션 헤지 기능에 의문 제기. 금: 달러 강세 시 원자재 약세가 일반적이나 달러 약세 시 금 상승 가능. 1970년대 고인플레이션기에 금이 연 8% 실질 수익을 냈다는 역사적 사례 제시. 버리가 금을 안전자산으로 선호할 것이라고 추정. 리스크: 금리 인상 지속 시 추가 하락 가능성, 인덱스 자금 쏠림의 역풍 가능성.
다듬은 글
제목: MICHAEL BURRY È SHORT La Crisi Economica Peggiora 채널: Impara Investi 화자:
원문: Michael Barry has just invested the largest short position of his career. He revealed you have no idea how short he is. Berry has a shocking prediction, but at the same time he is giving us some hope about how to protect ourselves from the inevitable collapse that is about to hit the financial markets in a much more brutal way than what has happened so far. For those who do n't know, Michael Berry is the king of the short and the investor who predicted the 2008 real estate crash, the Dotcom Bubble, the most recent collapse of cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin losing over 70% from its all-time high, and now his latest prediction is about to come true: the collapse of passive investments. Michael Burry says that passive investments are in a bubble. A huge bubble. People have been investing so far without even knowing exactly what they were buying. Barry is referring precisely to Index Fans, investment funds that emulate the performance of stock indices. Some companies receive investments just because they are part of Index Fans. But if they weren't, no one would invest in them. This investment strategy has worked very well in recent years, but the Glory is about to end. What exactly is your prediction about the next collapse? of the stock market and how we can protect ourselves from the collapse to create wealth in 2023 Because remember not all wealth is destroyed but simply changes hands and this is even more true in the world of investments listen to this Michael Barry He thinks they will be the winner after the latest scandal in the crypto world the collapse of FTS while making public his short position against the stock market first Let's see Barry's prediction on the stock market collapse and then let's go and check how gold performed in periods of high inflation for those who don't know large American investors must fill out a report of their stock holdings at the end of each quarter called tortineff they have 45 days from the end of the quarter to report their stock holdings if we go to look at Michael Burry's investments there are only purchased shares Where is this short he is talking about the short shares do not have to be included in the thirty-nine f and furthermore with this declaration you are obliged to include only the American stocks purchased in the last quarter not the raw materials or foreign stocks So from this report we cannot understand what exactly Michael Barry is doing But his statements give us an inkling of this. In May, Michael Burry declared that the S&P Five Hundred stock index could fall to 1,900 points, which from current levels is a free fall of 53%. What are you saying? The markets are going back up. Look here. Yes, of course. But if we take off our blinders, we can see that it is a bearish trend and that, as Barry said months ago, often when the market falls a lot, it bounces back a lot in a positive way, but the bearish trend continues. Look here, for example, how the S&P Five Hundred has behaved since the beginning of the year. We can see a 12% drop and a temporary recovery of 11% in March, another 20% drop, then a 17% rebound from June to August , and then another 16% drop and recently a 12% rebound. But despite these ups and downs, we are down 16% since the beginning of the year, despite not having had a rapid collapse like in 2020 or 2008. Another indicator that makes us suspect that the market could fall even further is the decline in the STPs. We are currently at 20 and compared to the average of 15, we are up by 5 points. Then, not to be underestimated are the moves of the Federal Reserve on interest rates. On December 14, 2022, there will be a Fed meeting and a rate increase to 75% by a quarter of a point is already expected. As the president of the Federal Reserve of Saint Louis Ballard has already hinted, there will be further institutions. He stated that rate hikes carried out so far have had limited effects on inflation and we are not yet in a sufficiently restrictive zone. These are all incisive factors for Michael Barry and certainly in his calculations on the next financial collapse he will not have overlooked a really important consideration when the Fed finally reaches its objectives and then starts reducing interest rates again. The supermarket will continue to continue to collapse Look here when the Fed started cutting rates in August 2007 the market collapsed by 50% in 18 months on average we had a collapse of 28%. If we look at the SP Five hundred chart, we can easily identify the last recent support in the air at 3,200 points, which can be reached from current levels with a drop of 20%. the 2020 lows with the flash crash we had are 45% away. going to the 2200 point area while Barry even predicts the break of that support that would take us to the 1900 point area at the lows of 2016 Michael Barry in a deleted Tweet Obviously said that this is a golden opportunity with the collapse of giants like the broker FTS Lyman Brothers of the crypto world the great depression of virtual currencies begins for this and similar scandals he believes that they will return to being the true tool for preserving wealth while their digital Bitcoin defined by many as the definitive tool for protecting oneself from inflation will not be up to it Bitcoin has lost 72% since last November well you can say They are not doing much it is down 3% since the beginning of the year this is mainly caused by the strengthening dollar which generally leads to the depreciation of raw materials denominated in dollars but with the devaluation of the dollar we could see gold rise a lot the current high inflation situation is often compared to the 70s and if we go and see how they have behaved historically we know that it yields more in periods of high inflation reaching 8% real return on investment Michael perhaps believes that they will be the shelter that many investors will choose once they start selling stocks to move their money and abandon crypto to buy the only asset with intrinsic value that has existed for thousands of years do you think that they will protect us from inflation and the collapse of the financial markets write it below in the comments we will see you in the next video Bye
Comments 0