저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼은 미국 경제가 현재 견조하며 과도한 침체 우려는 과장됐다고 본다. 경기 및 금리 전망: 미국 경제는 소비가 견조하고 일자리가 풍부해 현재 잘 가고 있다는 입장이다. 다만 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아오는 데 시간이 걸릴 수 있으며, 금리는 '더 길고 더 높게(longer higher and longer)' 유지될 가능성을 언급했다. 연착륙 가능성도 배제하지 않았다. 인플레이션 구조: 정부 차입과 재정지출, 에너지 투자 축소, 녹색경제·IRA·인프라 투자로 연간 약 4조 달러 규모 지출이 인플레이션 압력이 될 것으로 봤다. 다만 금리가 정상화되더라도 미국은 괜찮을 것이라고 말했다. 에너지·지정학: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁, 석유·가스 투자 위축으로 유가 및 에너지 가격 상승 가능성을 언급했다. 중국과의 무역·지정학 긴장도 리스크로 지목했다. AI: AI는 이미 300여 개 사례에서 사기 탐지, 리스크 관리, 송금 시스템 등에 활용 중이며 초기 단계지만 실질적 변화라고 평가했다. 악용 가능성에 따른 무기 경쟁도 언급했다. 언급 종목: 엔비디아(AI 활용 사례 언급, 종목 방향 발언 없음). 리스크: 금리 고점 장기화, 인플레이션 재가속, 에너지 가격, 지정학 리스크, 법적 리스크. 지역 투자: 필라델피아 등 저소득 지역에 지점 개설·주택담보대출·소상공인 지원을 확대하며 지역 활성화 효과를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to halftime serving the underserved continues to be a big priority for JP Morgan which is announcing another big investment in that area today down in Philadelphia that's where we find J.P Morgan CEO Jamie dimon alongside one of that Town's favorite Sons Jim Cramer Jim it's all yours us Scotty thank you for teaming me off because this is exactly we want to start talking about which is serving the underserved getting people in Philadelphia here at 52nd Street to have ownership I saw you happy that I've ever seen you you are a banker a local Banker at heart exactly people always think about some big CEOs and corporate headquarters we do a lot of corporate business but the end of the day we have branches and human beings run by human beings and you saw it they love their clients in that Community Brands were doing mortgages for low-income individuals we're doing small business advice where we bring in the whole Community it's a fabulous concept that we've just really enjoyed doing it and this is replicable you you're doing it another season another tough City like Baltimore yeah we have 15.
uh I've been to like 12 of them so far we also have a hundred Community managers so one of the special things here is we have a branch manager and a community manager who walks the street meets the local businesses the not-for-profits the Enterprise delahu is here worked with the local religious institutions brings them in we have we've had 60 events there to educate the local population about small business gain a mortgage saving money things like that so they've been a huge success and we're just really proud of them and they're hell a lot fun to go to but well the cities would say you're just doing this because the political you're doing it to because you want to look good in Washington that's what that's when I saw I saw guys actually Bankers going to make money off the neighborhood because the neighbor is going to do well yeah the the cynics are terrible they're always well we serve people okay we serve people every day that that Branch you saw we want every branch manager to welcome you like that you saw the story about the one person who got the mortgage it lived there for 20 years and the women's whose name I don't remember the mortgage loan officer who called him every day to get them through the process and I'm proud of you to own a home now and he was telling his son that we own this home so you know that yeah that moves that's one person but that bends the curve right there okay so we hear that the mortgage business is tough on Wells Fargo just a lot of people I didn't see any of that today I saw on a micro level not what the what the Federal Reserve is doing not with that said fudgerators but about what happens when you Revitalize the neighborhood and you get an uplift in business in the whole town that's correct there's good evidence both anecdotal and we have some numbers to support them when you have a branch there that you have local businesses move in you have a home be sold it changes the value of things around around the area we've done this now you know and DC and South and Harlem and uh in Crenshaw La yeah so these can these things can lift up the whole society and the other thing which you may remember we hire locally the art is done locally we bring in Foods local vendors it was the place was reconstructed by a black construction company so we and we everything we do we try to do local is really a community branch and with local Outreach and uh and they've been great all right so how do you drive the real Bank who you are I mean Community Real Banker with something like oh my God we're going to have recession so therefore we're in trouble the Federal Reserve this fed rates fed funds rate that these don't seem to work together are there two economies the economy that we that we obsess about and the economy that is creating a great wealth in this area yeah I mean I basically run the company I know that there's the economy go up or down right we don't run it that way we do it this way we build branches we hire people we train people we build technology and we basically do it through thick or thin and even even more than that I want to be helping this community regardless of the environment we will be there for clients regardless the environment yes we all talk about the economy you guess about it but we manage through it and we try to make sure we can handle whatever it throws at us which is often different than you expect probably a three trillion dollar uh base here which is just incredible largest in the world so I know you have to worry about recession I over the big panoply that you have do you tell people listen batten down and I tell people not really yes on certain things but for the most part no but we always have a recession Playbook what you might do a certain credit well you're breaking it out right here breaking out the recession Playbook right now not really right now the U.S economy this is the contradiction here okay the U.S economy right now is doing quite well consumers have a lot of money they're spending it jobs at plentiful I think it's fabulous by the way the wages are going up for the low end so I get a lot of complaints from CEOs about but that's inflationary but they haven't had a pay raise for 20 years and so you know here our minimum wage is something like the 40th percentile of all Americans and they get mental dental and medical and things like that but but it's wonderful that's that's today out in front of us there's some scary stuff and you and I know there's always uncertainty like that's that's a normal thing okay this uncertainty is a little bit more than that well you think about this for a long time we say oh the fed's behind the curve now we say they're 100 head of the curve maybe they're gonna hurt us I'm not hearing that we should obsess maybe we are obsessing about every quarter point because you've been there when it's seven eight you've been there when it's ten you've been there when it's 13 you still did your business yeah we will be fine regardless of interest rates out there I mean prepared we prepare to handle the fat tails not the ones you expect the ones you don't expect because you want that for me you want JP Morgan Chase to be a strong entity regardless of the environment and like I said I want to serve the client regardless the environment so I look the federal will do it has to do it's kind of caught up they're going to pause we all know that for a while they should it may not be enough and so I I think the two percent inflation are you there for that I think it'll take a while I I just don't think so longer higher and longer possibly yeah okay that hurts like hurt lending well it hurt the uh what you're trying to accomplish on 52nd Street in Philadelphia all things being it won't do anything we're doing here it won't change our plans at all all things been equal it might be slightly worse the economy still there's still a chance for a soft Landing I mean I wouldn't take that off the list of possibilities okay now across the stupidest uh bank is a check uh check cashing outfit yeah uh we know that they're also AI lending we know there's buy now pay later a lot of people try to reinvent things maybe it's phony Tech uh Bank versus what I know you might think of as phony Tech where are you yeah uh it's not fun I mean AI is real like we use we already use AI machine learning natural language processing in 300 cases and we would do it to reduce risk fraud marketing when we move money around the world it's running through ofac systems sanction systems risk systems it also uses AI to make sure is this abnormal is it a bad pattern we use voice recognition we have tons of things remember what Jensen mom said like for NVIDIA you're already doing it I know you're doing machine learning logic and it's working for you that's correct but but I would say to the uh everyone out there it is still at the early stages this is this is this is real this is a dramatic change and people get really geared up for how you can use AI for good and remember it can be used for bad so there's a little bit of arms race and the bad guy is going to use it too and you have to keep that in mind all right so I mean look it's in the news today you guys issued JP Morgan this is the type of thing I was homicide reporting used to spring on people it's very it's my I'm going back four years uh JP Morgan admits Jess Staley had inappropriate contact with yes you guys saying this how come the AI doesn't catch stuff like that it probably would have uh but I think I think you know basically I can't talk about specific litigation we have extraordinary amount of risk legal control people talented people a lot of them come at the doj the attorney generals who know what they're doing who have to make judgment calls and hopefully hopefully make the good ones okay so let's talk about uh I I need you to talk about what is uh I have to regard as the banker I saw today versus the things I read from you and I say that because sometimes I lose hope when I hear you yeah and then sometimes like this morning when I see you smile to congratulate people talk about even in somewhat expletive deleted way how exciting it is how do you I'm having trouble Jamie with the one that is saying listen there's a lot of Gloom we got to get together with the one that says there's a lot of good things happening yeah they're both a little true I love seeing our people and seeing our clients getting out in the road and you learn something every day and I hug the woman who made that mortgage I mean literally it just it warms my heart and so it's about just putting this perspective Connie's good today there's always uncertainty but it's heightened now it's hiding because of the QT Russia Ukraine oil gas War migration trade China and that's a rational thing but then put out here what I really feel America is the most prosperous nation in the planet we have all the foodborne and energy we need we have an enormous Innovation we're going to get through everything that's called in January for a Marshall Plan for food and energy yeah I don't eat in Marshall Plan we got what we need for the world because you said America always has to be put first yes but I think America first but America has to help if you don't have American leadership around the world I mean mature polite diplomatic it can be our way of the highway if you don't have it you're going to have chaos the only the only one who can lead is America I'm not saying that I'm being arrogant no it's the military economic and capabilities that we have but at the same time in the same breath you said in your January piece don't forget FDR and Churchill made common cause with Stalin one of the worst Italian leaders in of our lifetime to defeat Hitler at the same point you talk about maybe we need to have allies that common cause allies just on this issue I read your pieces saying maybe we've got to go to China and defeat Putin together I I don't think we can do that but why not but I think I think the real point is American leadership real politic this is this is not you know worrying about not real pot real politic which is my reference to Stalin and that we've got to make sure our allies are safe and that they want to trade with us and they want to Ally with us and stuff like that which is diplomatic but oil and gas so you see what it could have done to Europe right it's already hurting a lot of poor Nations it's hurting poor people governments have to basically subsidize it even more so I'm trying to make the point is that if we don't get affordable reasonable uh secure energy it would be bad for the world and by the way it's gonna be bad for CO2 because you see countries around the world turning back on their coal plants so I'm making we need comprehensive strategy to make sure we get through this and make the world safe for democracy for the next hundred years all right so let's just go back to what what that's the juxtaposition I saw people today who are going to be empowered the neighborhood I know that there's a 50 lift we went to 9 and 19th which is an even tougher area so to speak there's on back a few years ago I look at all this and then I think about okay so I need to worry about j-pal I need to worry about the FED there's something wrong here there's something wrong because maybe that's too short a term maybe what we're thinking about when we talk about the FED is not what is happening uh boots on the ground here yeah I think they're different I mean the FED look they have I have all the Bold respect for Jay Powell uh but you know the fact is we lost a little bit of control of inflation models didn't pick that up I've always been suspicious of models and what we use them extensively I always say that you use a little bit of judgment too uh and there's been a sea change governments are borrowing a lot of money and you got to incorporate that what's taking place that means they're spending it that's inflationary wages we haven't we've seen come down but not so much oil and gas will probably be going up because you know the investment has been curtailed right uh and you know the the green environment the green economy we think it's close to four trillion dollars a year of additional spending so you're talking and the IRA act which I think has a lot of good stuff in it the infrastructure app the chicks app this is huge money and so you know me you've had to see change and I think we should all get adjusted to that and you know we'll have more normalization of interest rates and we'll be fine just remember America's most prosperous in the planet we'll be fine okay but I don't I I know that area very well my family's been here for 175 years that area has not had vibrancy for 65 years are you telling me that government did anything to that area we talk about the government using this government government did nothing for that area that's why that air Ing and the people are poor than they should be JP Morgan is more important than the government when it comes to that area why talk about the government so much so you're the business sort of business is the greatest source for social change I totally agree but we need good government policy and we've got to do in collaboration so we're doing a lot of collaboration there the mayor was there yes so we you need zoning laws changed you need inner city schools do that your branch will do that we do we try to do all of that we try to get kids jobs we got rid of we're hiring ex-felons now we're we got rid of college degree required where necessary but we need government to do to change the mortgage laws to make them more affordable to people we need government to do a better job in end of physical education we need government to do a better job with these zoning laws about for affordable housing so you know in collaboration you can lift up that neighborhood and you're absolutely correct a lot of government rules regulations requirements they completely backfire they have the total adverse consequence of what they were intended to do but they don't change them you need government now uh we're talking to Jamie dimon chairman CEO of JP Morgan I chase I'm so glad that Scott Wapner gave us a chance we are going to be back with you later on mad money thank you so much you're very welcome Scott Jimmy we appreciate it
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