Jeremy Siegel's Next Year Market Forecast

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결론: 제러미 시겔은 2022년 주식이 여전히 유망하며 S&P500 약 10% 상승을 예상하지만 작년만큼 좋지는 않을 것이라고 봄. 금리·인플레이션 전망: 시겔은 연준이 공격적으로 금리를 올려야 하며 내년 약 8회(25bp 기준) 인상이 필요할 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션은 5~6%로 예상. 장기채 금리는 크게 오르지 않고 연말~2023년 초 장단기 금리 역전 가능성도 언급. 통화·재정 근거: 코로나 이후 통화량(M2)은 코로나 이전 대비 약 35% 증가했으며 그 돈이 주식·원자재·인플레이션으로 흘러가고 있다고 설명. 재정 지원 축소가 있어도 개인 주머니에 여전히 자금이 많다고 봄. 공급·노동 요인: 공급망 병목은 일부 완화되고 있으나 노동 부족과 임금 상승이 더 핵심적이며 생산성이 따라오지 못해 인플레이션이 2%로 내려가기 어렵다고 봄. 주택가격 상승 → 임대료 상승(12~18개월 시차)이 끈적한 인플레 요인이라는 점도 언급. 반론 및 패널 의견: 진행자 측은 공급 문제가 일부 풀릴 수 있고 연준이 8회까지 올릴 필요는 없을 것이라고 봄. 한 패널은 TIPS 시장 기대인플레이션은 시겔의 전망보다 낮아 시장이 과도한 인플레를 반영하지 않는다고 지적하고, 시겔은 장기 국채가 헤지 자산 역할을 하므로 가격이 편향됐다고 반박. 밸류 vs 성장: 시겔은 고밸류 성장주 대비 저PER 가치주(러셀 지수 기준 2~3%p 성장주 대비 부진했음에도)가 2022년 성장주를 상회할 것으로 전망. 금리 인상기에는 실적·현금흐름·배당이 확실한 기업이 유리하다고 봄. 아리엘인베스트먼트 존 로저스는 금리 인상이 경기 회복을 꺾지 못하고 저평가 가치주가 잘 될 것이라 주장. 원자재·실물자산: 실물자산(원자재·인플레 연동 자산)이 여전히 유리하다고 주장. 채권과 현금은 매력 없다는 입장.

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01. and where are you going to go i mean bonds look terrible cash looks terrible you want to be in real assets profits are doing extremely well so even though there's there's fear of a fed rate hike and i actually think they're going to have to be much more aggressive than what the market is is uh pointing out so far i still think stocks are are the place to be next year i don't think it's going to be as good as this year i think we're going to probably have a 10 gain in s p plus or minus uh as they contend with a a more aggressive fed but real assets are still the place to be you're the second person on this show to say that this in the last hour john rogers of ariel said more than three rate hikes from the fed next year to deal with higher inflation how many do you expect well believe it or not i i think we may have to get the two percent on on fed funds now if you measure them in quarter points uh you know that that's a he that's an age but it seems to me how are you gonna fight a five six percent inflation which i still think is going to raise next year unless you start moving it up more aggressively i i don't think the long bond is going to move up that much i think we may even have an inverted yield curve by the end of the year or early in 2023 um so if you shouldn't look at the 10-year i think it's the short rate the fed is going to have to operate on to move up the uh interest rate slow credit growth that's it money supply growth has to be slowed to actually tackle inflation so i just want to be clear you expect eight rate hikes if we're looking at 25 basis point hikes from the fed and the market to go up in that kind of environment believe it or not if the long bond stays at two and the end and the short rate is two and inflation is five and profits are going up five to ten where do you want to be i know it sounds scary to think about oh my god eight rate hikes but you know i'm old enough to remember a two percent fed funds rate is like oh my god that's so low you know who would ever go into cash or bonds so it's still from a historical perspective very very low but i cannot see 90 basis points which is the fed dot plot being you know effective at slowing credit growth or effective at slowing demand and and the inflationary pressures so but we're also going to have fiscal stimulus withdrawal aren't we isn't that going to help pressure not just inflation but but also cool off the economy a little bit it will uh definitely do that but there's still a lot of money in people's pockets that was created during the covered uh fiscal policy money supply is up 35 from where it was pre-covered that money is going into stocks it's going into commodities it's going into inflation um and you know i've been as you know sarah a real hawk on inflation for months you have and and you've been right so far i will i'll give it to you and i think we're going to have another five six percent inflation in uh to the in the coming year and the fed is going to have to say you know what i have to step on the break harder i would because a lot of people do think these supply strains constraints are already easing and they're getting better we've heard as much fedex ceo said as much to the white house this week and that's a big chunk of it don't you think some of it is supply but don't forget even when you take a look at these commodity price i mean people are saying hey dude notice that gas is you know uh gas has gone down oil has retraced almost half its drop and some people are still pointing to oil being 80 90.

02. i've heard hundred lumber came all the way down lumber is back up housing prices are not going down the labor shortage is not going down that's much more key than some of these delivery problems that we've been hearing about because if labor is going to go up five six seven eight percent we don't have the productivity to keep inflation at two percent under those circumstances well i did speak i mentioned with aerial investments chairman john rogers last hour we talked about this very issue how higher interest rates are going to play out and what they're going to do to the economy next year here's what john rogers says i think we're going to be fine i think the economy is still quite quite strong i think the higher rates will not be enough to slow down uh this economic recovery and again these undervalued stocks that are selling at single digit pes often selling at such a discount to the s p are well positioned to do extraordinarily well professor siegel do you agree that the value stock the cheaper parts of the market will work i i absolutely so even though the fed is going to have to be more aggressive from a historical standpoint they're still easy demand and money is there uh and i i think and and profits are are going to be there firms are leveraged they're borrowing at negative real interest rates they have labor contracts now some of those are going to be negotiated upward but you know they're getting the real cost of labor is going down to some of the firms until we're going to get catch up later in the year and that's why i think this inflation problem has to be addressed more aggressively but in the meantime you know stocks are are still the place to be profits are still going up steph what do you what do you make of these calls very high inflation call from professor siegel and eight rate hikes next year well um we've been talking about inflation not all of it was temporary we've been talking about this all year long sarah and we've had that discussion and so yes maybe commodity prices can come down a bit uh maybe we get the supply chain fixes they come in a little bit more we'll have to wait and see we're going to be very data dependent that's my theme for 2022 by the way but on the flip side uh as professor siegel said rents are going higher that's very sticky and that follows home prices and home prices the median uh price increase is up 18 so and usually rents follow home prices by 12 to 18 months so that is definitely stickier and then of course wages we're seeing it across the board i mean that unit labor cost number that we got from last quarter was just astounding i've never seen such a high number before so i do think you're going to have inflation but i don't think it's runaway inflation um i do think productivity plays a part even though last quarter productivity was disappointing um but i feel like we are going to have above average but not enough to have eight eight hikes that's that seems to me like a lot and i don't know if they necessarily have to do eight hikes why why don't they they can stick to the three times that they're going to actually raise maybe they do a little bit more and they can die back as needed yeah yeah absolutely you know what i i just got to interrupt professor siegel because you someone should tell the bond market the tips market there that's what tracks inflation in the bond market and it's not predicting the kind of levels that you're talking about well don't forget there's 10-year inflation don't forget that 10-year bond has become a real hedge asset for so many investors we just hold it because we know the dow goes down a thousand points to 2000 points treasuries are up it's an insurance policy i don't think it's giving unbiased estimates of what inflation is and is ten years out if you look at one year tips to your tips they are looking at five six percent inflation seven percent even on the on the short end and don't forget eight i know sounds scary but if if eight quarter little baby steps is two percent and from history that's not at all scary but this has been a market that's been conditioned on on liquidity and zero interest rates for a long time final finally what does it all mean for tech so do you want to stay out of big cap tech unprofitable tech anything with with higher valuations next year well i do think to get a rotation to value because when we have those rate increases and people are not getting zero all the time in their bank accounts and everything like that the firms you know they can say well where are the earnings or where is the cash flow where are the dividends and the you know those we listen we've seen a come down in the last three months so much of the so-called high flyers into the conservative tech uh you know last year i thought we'd have a rotation in value value did lag growth if you take a look at the russell indices by about two or three percentage points this year but i think given relative valuations so many stocks are selling 10 15 times earnings in this environment they look really attractive to me value i think outperforms the growth in 2022.

03. quite a few calls jeremy siegel coming to play today thank you for joining us thank you very much happy holidays happy holidays to you steph before we let you go we wanted to