저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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시장은 '터무니없음(absurdity)'으로 가득하다는 결론. 천연가스 가격이 기술주 금리 연동 구조를 만들고 있어 시장의 비합리성이 두드러진다. [천연가스와 금리·기술주 연동] 미국 천연가스 가격이 급등하면서 채권 금리가 올라가고, 금리 상승으로 기술주가 하락하는 흐름이 이어졌다. 천연가스가 안정되면 금리가 내려 기술주가 반등할 수 있다는 구조. 천연가스가 6달러에서 5.5달러 아래로 내려가면 애플 시가총액이 500억 달러 늘 수 있다고 제시했으나, 직접적 연관은 없다고 인정. [천연가스 공급 병목] 미국 천연가스는 과잉 공급 상태이나 파이프라인 부족으로 오하이오·서펜실베이니아에 갇혀 있다. 일부 생산자는 저장 공간 대신 가스를 소각한다. 최근 가격이 몇 달 전 대비 거의 두 배 올랐다. 120마일 규모 파이프라인(하루 11억 입방피트 공급 예정)이 무산된 사례를 언급하며 인허가 문제를 지적했다. [신규 상장주 과열] Warby Parker: 직상장 첫날 기준가 40달러 대비 54달러로 상승, 평가액 약 60억 달러. 지난해 30억 달러 평가 대비 실질 변화가 거의 없어 고평가로 판단. 내부자 매도 제한도 없어 위험하다고 경고. Dutch Bros: 공모가 23달러에서 시초가 32.5달러, 이후 40달러대 중반에 안착, 평가액 약 73억 달러. 흑자 기업이나 커피 맛과 매장 인상에 기반한 밸류에이션은 설명하기 어렵다고 봄. [결론] 천연가스 파이프라인이 아마존 주가를 좌우하고, 신규 상장주는 스타일이나 커피 키오스크로 거래되는 현상을 두고 시장의 광기라고 평가. 다만 이 역시 개인적 기대(패트리어츠·이글스 슈퍼볼 재대결)만큼 비합리적이라는 자조적 마무리. [전망] 단기적으로 금리와 천연가스 가격에 따라 기술주가 움직일 수 있다고 봄. 신규 상장주는 내부자 매도 가능성으로 하락 위험이 크다는 입장.
다듬은 글
the crane miracle people my friends just trying to make me smile my job not to entertain educate now if you're tearing your hair if you're tearing your hair out trying to figure out what's driving this market you are not alone and that's especially true on a day like today where the dow gained 91 points has to be advanced 0.16 and the nasdaq declined 0.24 percent i take last night all right so i'm sitting at the bar at mr challenge the one at 57th street in midtown uh patiently waiting for salesforce ceo mark benny have to come from california to appear at my corporate governance conference tomorrow where we're discussing how business can be the greatest platform for social change very nice guy comes up he gives me the now the usual fist bump right like there's no covert on the fist huh and wants to know uh when a stocks will stop going down so i say is a fang he said yeah fine and thank derivatives i said all right i don't know when natural gas is going to go down it stopped going up but if you can tell me when natural gas goes down that's when fang stops going down the moment i said it i realized how stupid it sounded and it sounds stupid because it is stupid the stock linkage is real even as the real world linkage smacks more fantasy than fact tax been getting hammered because bond yields keep climbing as nobody on wall street wants to own tech when interest rates are rising why are bond yields going up well in large part it's because natural gas prices keep soaring so if not gas can stabilize or go down maybe bond yields can come back down which would then bail out the tech stocks so many people love and that's exactly what played out between 4 30 this am and about 10 am of course when a linkage gets disattenuated it makes you wonder if the market has completely lost its mind do we really believe apple stock should rally if natural gas falls from six dollars to 550 apple's market capitalization might literally grow by 50 billion if natural gas breaks down below 5.50 even though there's no direct connection but like it or not that is how this market works at least for this moment what makes this whole thing so glory is that natural gas has been rallying in this country different from the rest of the world for no particularly important reason we have more natural gas than we know what to do with some of the less responsible producers still burn off their excess supply when no one's looking because it's cheaper than finding new storage space so how the heck did it fall to six dollars yesterday almost double where it was a few months ago well there's obviously been some hurricane damage but a lot of us because there's just not enough pipeline capacity and we keep having trouble sighting and adding new pipes tons of gas is effectively trapped in ohio and western pennsylvania i mean two of the largest fields in the world and they can't be tapped as much as they should and they would be if we didn't have such strictures and the price of the commodity would be much lower so then you have to ask why is it landlocked all right let me give you a real life example earlier this month a 120 mile perspective pipeline got shot down this would have brought 1.1 billion cubic feet per day to pennsylvania new jersey from the western part of pennsylvania i know the pipeline's path it would have come incredibly close to a farm i used to own but my ex-wife karen kramer and all the neighbors were against it i probably would have been too i owned another property in pennsylvania where a pipeline went through and they were always traipsing around unannounced checking it out and then they gave me a cheesy calendar for all my troubles no thanks so i might as well have told my inquisitor mr chal's that apple and amazon went down because of care and crammer i mean that's how absurd this linkage has become when certain stocks are presumed to be worth much less every time bond yields make even ministerial moves higher the interest rates go higher because of that gas prices you know those cairns but it's not just the tech natural gas linkage this market is full of absurdity and it's very upsetting i'm gonna give you another one warby parker came public today this is a vertically integrated eyeglass maker with a digital footprint and a bunch of brick and mortar stores i talked about it last night i think it's good company it's not a great company i told you not to touch the stock above its reference price of 40 because the valuation would just be impossible to justify if not silly in part that's because warby parker did direct listing managers plopped down the exchange to fare for itself and in this case they don't even have a lock lockup on insider selling but today the stock instantly jumps to 54.
it's got a 6 billion dollar valuation that's lunacy people last year warby parker raised a bunch of money at 3 billion and almost nothing has changed since then so either the people who got in on that last round of private fundraising some of the savviest investors in the world or the people buying it up here today or a bunch of suckers i'm guessing the ladder of course this is not unusual about five years ago i had a cup of coffee at a place called dutch bro in ashland oregon where my daughter was living at the time everybody loves dutch bro out there they got these kiosks and parking lots and somehow they remember your drink from month to month when the company came public two weeks ago the ipo priced at 23 then the stock opened at 32.50 up 41 for surging nearly 55 over the next couple days since then dutch pro has settled down in the mid-40s 7.3 billion dollar valuation at least it's actually profitable unlike warby parker i know justin they're possible give me a break again dutch bro is being valued not by its prospects okay but by the taste of its coffee and the front of the kiosk i doubt anyone involved in this deal from the banking end has a clue how to explain why this stock should trade where it does it makes no sense but like warby parker scents don't matter people like rory parker for the style they got army of hipsters customers already taking over brooklyn even as it has less than 200 stores they like dutchbow for the incredible amount of caffeine they put in each cup even as it has uh only there's fewer than 500 stores i never got to spend enough time with my daughter up in ashland so you know what i did i always went for the annihilator the annihilator at dutch bro when i hit that great town on friday night and then i didn't have to go to sleep until sunday yeah because each time i was about to fall asleep i just had another annihilator i was so charged up with those annihilators that i was able to climb upper table rock 2000 feet with my daughter screaming daughter by pearl jam all the way all right you can argue that that moment and sing eddie vetter's black on the way down plus a cup of dutch bro is easily worth seven billion dollars i mean really really though uh these are companies with famous brands that have their own squad of cheerleaders and i don't know how long that's going to last people constantly cheer for football teams that have no chance of winning whatsoever at least without the point spread it doesn't change the game if you cheer for the jets or southern oregon raiders you might also like buying woolby parker or dutch bro i mean at this point is pretty much the same thing there's just one problem stocks aren't football teams when the insiders get a chance to sell and in the case of warby parker they can start immediately then it would be nuts for them not to blow out of as many shares as they can because they know better than anyone that their stocks can't stay up here in la la land pinned by their popular products or their incredible annihilator caffeine that makes you sing yellow lead better at the top of your lungs the bottom it's anything about it and karen kramer don't take that personally i anyway the bottom line yes we're in a market where natural gas pipelines control amazon while newly public stocks trade on style points or annihilators and coffee kiosks they're all part of the lunacy of a moment is it crazy that the market works this way sure but then again it's also crazy that i believe in the long-awaited rematch of the new england patriots and my beloved philadelphia eagles in next year's super bowl in l.a
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