저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장 매도세가 아직 끝나지 않았을 수 있으니 신규 자금은 관망하며 저점 신호를 기다리되, 과하게 하락한 종목은 분할 기회로 볼 수 있다는 입장. 시장 하락 배경: 인플레이션이 연준 예상보다 고착되고 가속화되고 있으며, 금리 상승 우려로 주가가 압박받는다는 진단. 주택 가격 급등과 모기지 금리 상승으로 주택건설주가 약세라고 설명. 공급망·에너지 이슈: 천연가스 가격이 두 배 가까이 올라 겨울 난방비 부담이 커지고, 원유는 배럴당 80달러 부근까지 상승. 항구·컨테이너 배치 문제와 트럭 기사 부족으로 물류 병목이 지속되며 해결 시점이 불투명하다고 봄. 노동·팬데믹: 코로나 종식 전까지 노동 공급이 회복되기 어렵고 구인난이 임금 인플레이션을 자극한다고 봄. 인프라 법안도 임금 상승 압력을 키울 수 있으나 실제 효과는 2023년 이후로 예상. 반도체 칩 부족: 자동차용 저가 칩 부족이 쉽게 해소되지 않을 것으로 보며, 1분기 내 해결 가능성에 회의적. 금리·부채한도: 금리 상승 시 기술주 등 고밸류 종목이 특히 타격을 받고, 가격 전가력이 있는 기업만 버틸 수 있다는 논리. 부채한도 리스크도 채권 가격 하락 요인으로 언급. 대응 전략: 10% 이상 급락한 종목만 선별 매수하며 현금 비중을 확보. 반등 시 일부 매도는 가능하나 저가 재진입을 준비해야 한다는 조언. 개별 종목: 마이크론이 급락한 점을 언급하며 과도하게 싸진 종목은 무시하기 어려울 수 있다고 언급. 천연가스·원유 가격 고점 가능성 논의. 출연자 전망: 제이 파월 연준 의장의 인플레이션 판단이 빗나갔다고 비판. 아이비 젤먼의 약세 전망에 공감하며 하락 리스크를 인정.
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y america i'll be on my friends i'm just trying to not lose a lot of money and put it in context so we're going to try to teach and educate and make it clear what you can do in this environment i want you to call me at 1-800-743-cbc or tweet me at jim kramer even after today's relentless beatdown dow plunging 569 points has to be probably 2.04 nasdaq knows having 2.83 i don't think the selloff's necessarily over although you can never be too sure because there are so many things going wrong at once that we could mount a nice rally even if anything even anything gets a tiny bit better now i find it impossible to be philosophical about losing money and a cloud like this is it's not just financially devastating it's emotionally devastating that's why i've developed a set of rules that allow me to at least keep calm when the market's rolling over i need you to adopt these rules so you can think clearly and not say oh my down 2.8 percent it's time to go instead i want you to be opportunistic the first thing you need to do though before you can be opportunistic you got to nail down the approximate cause what prostate causes the cell of what happened here right now you hear well sponsored situations but does that really tell you anything what is really going on bonds interest rates how can the dow dip into the red for the third quarter how is it possible if the nasdaq could be down 2.8 percent okay i'm going to tell you first inflation is proving to be more of ingrained and less transitory than fed chief jay powell originally predicted in fact inflation is actually accelerating which makes the fed's forecast for a calmer moment seem increasingly unlikely he needed to see decelerating he got accelerating now j is plenty of wiggle room he can say that inflation will be under control sometime next year however there are real signs of overheating everywhere we learned that housing prices were up 20 year every year in july which is terrific if you're already a homeowner but real bad trying to buy one mortgage rates starting to go higher uh that will make homes even less affordable we know that home builders are going full tilt tag capacity but it doesn't seem to be enough and by the way that's a negative negative for the home builders while the economy may not be overheating yet when you see that kind of action it means that things are getting too hot to handle and that's why the stocks of the home builders are just being crushed even though you hear of tremendous demand of course this is not a normal economy so historical precedent can only take us so far see home prices are going for a variety of reasons most of them still boil down to covid to covet people are working home so they need more space they didn't come back i speak to every so many ceos talk about february march now now this wasn't in the cards when the pandemic got rolling so the homeowners didn't prepare for it when they made their plans long before the year began that's why all the inputs for new house are still in short supply we aren't in a position to quickly build more in order to meet the demand in part because we simply don't have enough workers new homes are in such high demand that the home builders can pretty much raise prices at will but that can't last it's another reason why their stocks keep going lower they're sucking you in remember we had amy we had ivy zellman on now i gotta tell you ivy zellman like you might have missed this on friday but she is so bearish i'm afraid she's gonna be right i'm afraid she's gonna be right because we got accelerating inflation we got a higher mortgage rates and we can't get these homes built next problem something i didn't see coming it's natural gas now we've done a couple of pieces of repository suki on we had carly garner on the charts but natural gas crushes after bouncing around the bottom for ages it's now more than double disher that means your winter heating bill will be a lot more expensive this year thanks to hurricanes lack of pipeline capacity but you won't understand that see we know the price spike can be a real confidence zapper because it always comes as a surprise and always comes to christmas time and always cuts into retail spending we've gotten so used to abundant natural gas in this country that most people in their 30s on down they can't even recall time when their heating bill doubled gasoline is going up too price of crude keeps climbing right hitting 80 dollars a barrel before pulling back a bit now because the price of gas is posted you tend to dwell on it more than say the price of milk be glad we aren't in britain though where they have gasoline but lack the truck drivers to get it to the gas station if you wanted to ask me which one's going to peak first of all these i i will say natural gas the reason is because both sharif suki uh from to lurian and before that from schneider and carly garner said six to seven is where it's going to be it's going to peak now third we got a supply chain nightmare that nobody saw in common and we don't know how to solve it that's what's so net we can't be at all to solve it we didn't realize our economy was still relying on imports our port system is set up for much less traffic plus our intermodal shipping containers are set up to flow from west to east not vice versa so now the containers are in the wrong places shipyards aren't adjusting to the new traffic do not ask me why meanwhile truck drivers are in short supply so getting things on the trains has been a nightmare i was hoping we'd get some relief but when we spoke to lance fritz last night the ceo of union pacific he didn't offer us much comfort he said we need the pandemic to end if we're ever going to get back to some degree of normalcy i found myself begging lance to give me some positives and he wasn't going to give me him just to make me happier that's not the way he thinks which brings me to number four i'm going to keep coming back to the covets gotta end all right it's just gotta end we don't know how many people are staying out of the workforce because of the pandemic but it's probably a lot maybe as many as 10 million we know there are jobs where you made 18 an hour before the pandemic they now are 22 an hour jobs yet they still can't find people at work have you been to a restaurant that didn't have a health wanted sign i was hoping those times would be down by this point if they come down though they're only replaced by signs that say they're closing at various conv convenient times because they can't find enough staff very european and not in a good way more on this point later in the show fifth i'm of two minds about this infrastructure bill i really am i mean on the one hand you have to figure these big infrastructure projects will create even more wage inflation i can't find jobs nobody nobody we have many so many more jobs than people on the other hand given how long it takes for our government to build things you might not need to worry about that until 2023 at the earliest six this chip shortage is so intractable that i doubt it we resolve by the first quarter of next year and i thought it could be the seven inductors we desperately need still aren't expensive enough for foundries to manufacture them on mass i wish they would just raise the prices to where they could extract in a value and make more right now we know automobile chips which are dumb chips so to speak or full features they like to call them make up just four percent of the largest foundry's production that's taiwan semi and they're not going to start making chips cheaper chips out of the goodness of the heart either these low-cost chips get a lot more expensive but just don't get made of course any of this you see jay pal is he in charge of any of this i mean i read about all these people they attacked this guy constantly hey senator warren attacked him i i i thought that was unreasonable he doesn't make chips he doesn't pump oil he didn't know cashiers need plex glass screens that are now in short supply he didn't know we can't make enough plastic he didn't anticipate that we wouldn't have enough windows or doors or appliances or sinks or tubs or toilets or or anything involving say like grouding you know hey floor tile i can't get floor if you have floor tile just give me a jingle and direct message me even the home builders couldn't predict this and that's their business every one of these issues stands in the way of higher stock prices do not even get me started on the debt ceiling possibly a government mandated default no matter how fanciful has pushed bond prices down and buying yields up when you've got rising interest rates and raising inflation most stocks are roadkill unless the underlying companies have the ability to raise prices without having to hire more workers and you know who has that the only group that goes higher oil and gas tech in particular is being eviscerated because the whole group is allergic to higher interest rates inflation problem is the market's been up for so long that we're practically due for a pullback and maybe this isn't enough at this point it's only safe to buy this stuff that's been completely mauled or it could be coiled springs if you stay tuned i got four that you must track my chapel trust we're only touching stocks that have lost 10 percent of their value in a very short period of time we did some buying today we're not selling why because we have plenty of cash and we like it when the market comes down so we can put it to work are we in a this too shall pass moment sure but this too always hurts especially it not hurts the eagles quarterback that hurts too especially because you have to get used to hearing that j pal must raise interest rates to whip inflation now which means these people want him to trash the economy in order to save it from inflation if you can't take the pain it's not too late to sell something but please only on a bounce as long as you're nimble enough to get back in at a lower level but the bottom line the idea that everything will continue to be awful that all six of these dice rolls will come up snake eyes no that's too easy something will go right with one of these it almost always does the self will eventually write itself i just think it's worth waiting on the sidelines with new money until we figure out how things can turn around or your favorite stock gets clobbered to the point where it's too cheap to ignore like the brutal meltdown in micron after the clo
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