저자: tastylive출연자 · 외국인
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엔비디아는 2023년 이후 시총 급등(약 1년 내 $5T 돌파 후 현재 $4.3T), 2026 매출 $215B(+65%), AI칩 점유율 81%, 주문 가시성 $500B 등 펀더멘털이 강하다. 애널리스트 평균 목표가 약 $264(범위 $200~352)이며 Dan Ives는 $6T(주가 약 $300)을 전망한다. 옵션 시장 기준 2027년 1월 만기 $300 콜의 델타 약 12%(만기 시 $300 이상 확률 12%), 만기 전 터치 확률 약 14%로 옵션이 제시하는 확률은 낮다. 방송은 이를 제시하며 투자자에게 12% 확률 베팅을 할지 질문으로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
Nvidia's the first company in history to cross $5 trillion. It's big move started in 2023 when it was just worth $400 billion and peaked at over $5 trillion. A 12x move in under 3 years. Its stock is up over 1,100% since ChatGPT launched in November of 2022. The progression started in May of 2023, the first time it hit $1 trillion.
By February of 2024, it was at $2 trillion. June of 2024, it was at almost $3 trillion. By July of 2025, it hit $4 trillion. And in October of 2025, it hit $5 trillion 78 days later. By March of 2026, where we're at currently, it sits at $4.3 trillion market cap. Its revenue in 2026, it was reported on February 25th of this year, $215 billion, up 65% year-over-year.
It's got huge business in data centers and a huge market share, 81% of the global AI chip revenue. Order visibility, $500 billion through the end of 2026 through Blackwell and Rubin chip sales. Analyst consensus targets, they're at about 264 on average with a range of 200 to 352. So, Dan's right in the middle of that.
So, Dan's on the upper end of that 200 to $352 range here for Nvidia price targets going out to 2027. The great thing about options is they allow you to see into the future, so to speak. You can price in these sort of bets and see where they're at. So, if you were to look at the options that expire in this time frame, I'm going to be looking at the January 2027 expiration options for Nvidia, which are available to trade whether you want to trade those as leap options uh or based on this uh analysis, an upside play, a gamma play.
Uh but these options allow you to price in what that probability is. So, we're putting a little bit of option math behind the projection here. If you go out to the January of 2027 expiration, it's 290 days out in time currently. Opening up that expiration allows you to see where the options are priced.
And with option prices, it allows you to factor in the delta of those positions. The Black-Scholes model will give you a probability around these options. And so, for Dan's expectation of a 275 or even 300, 300 being closer to that $6 trillion mark, we can price that in as a probability. If we were to go out to the 300 strike calls in Nvidia, the delta of those calls would give you a rough estimate of the probability of the stock being above 300 at that point in time, at expiration based on all current information currently.
This, of course, is subject to change. If Nvidia were to have a big upside move in the next couple months, this delta will likely increase. The probability will likely increase that it'll reach 300 if the stock rallies to 220, let's say. But for right now, the market gives it a delta of about 12, which tells you it's a 12% probability that the stock, Nvidia, will be above 300 at expiration of this contract, January of 2026, the middle of January.
A 12% probability that the stock will be at or above that number. That gives you a 12% chance of hitting that $6 trillion mark. But what might happen in between all that time? There's 298 days to go till expiration. That's 298 days of price action. Well, the probability of touch is another column you could add to your platform.
It tells you the probability of that option getting touched or the stock being at the money to that option at some point in these 298 days. And that probability sits at about a 14%. So, you've got a 14% probability of being at or on the 300 strike, a $6 trillion market cap at some point in the next year, as well as a 12% probability that we'll be in the money come middle of January of 2027.
So, are you taking that bet? Are you taking the 12% shot to the upside on a $6 trillion Nvidia?
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