저자: tastylive진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 팔란티어에 대해 장기 풋옵션 매수(약 9백만 달러 프리미엄, 명목 약 9억 달러)로 하락 베팅을 했다는 보도를 분석. 버리는 적정가를 약 46달러로 보고 밸류에이션 과열, 사업모델(SaaS 아님, 맞춤형 비중 높음), 회계 품질, AI 버블 우려를 근거로 든다. 영상은 2027년 1월 만기 50달러 풋의 델타로 만기 내 ITM 확률은 약 2%, 터치 확률은 약 17%로 추정하며, 옵션 시장 확률로 버리의 베팅이 낮은 확률이라고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry made headlines last year with his short position that he had on Palantir. Now, let's dive into kind of what he actually did in the structure of that trade and see if we can take some option math and put some probabilities behind that. Now, what he was doing was he was buying long-dated put options, which is a bearish bet on the stock.
You're looking for the stock to go down over a certain period of time. Now, the headline size that he had was a little over $900 million in notional exposure. Now, when those reports come out, it's based on the options notional exposure, not the actual value that is put into the trade. So, an option trades at a 100 shares notional value.
Uh so, at a $9 million premium in that position, it would equate to about $900 million in {quote} notional exposure. Now, that's not the actual risk that he had on on the trade. The actual risk was more around $9 million. Now, the bet was a long duration trade betting for the downside in Palantir to probably somewhere in the 50 to 60 range.
I say probably because the exact position isn't totally known and because of the reporting of these firms, you don't know if they're still in this trade at this point. But, we're going to put some context around it. So, we're going to put some context around what his position was and essentially what the probability of that position expiring in the money is at expiration.
So, we're going to be taking a look at that. So, you might be asking what the core thesis was that Michael Burry was going after here. It was not that it that Palantir was a bad company per se. It's just that the stock was wildly mispriced. Yet, an extreme valuation, the stock was at 100 to 200% earnings multiple, 70 times sales.
It's a big stock with a high multiple value. His view that even the the software companies and the AI companies, they they rarely justify these sort of values. Also, that the market is just pricing in perfection and execution and sustained hypergrowth in a lot of these names, including Nvidia, which he he was also kind of bearish on.
He thought the fair value was much lower, so he was thinking more around $46 a share. It's currently trading at 150 and change and was as high as 200. So, certainly, if your estimate is that it's worth 46, it's certainly a short at $150. And so, his model had a wide range of prices from 21 to 146, but the thesis was that it was more towards the bear case than the bull case.
Even his own upside scenarios barely justified the price. So, he had some skepticism with the business model. He said it was not a true SaaS company, you know, it had heavy customization, less reoccurring revenue. He suggested that there was lower scalability than the market assessed. He had accounting questions and quality concerns.
You know, he said the revenue recognition issues, historical dilution. There was a lot of aggressive assumptions built into the price of Palantir. He attacks the earnings quality, not just the growth of the stock. He had AI bubble and narrative fears. Burry's broader view AI, it was a hype cycle, similar to past bubbles.
He also had shorts in Nvidia and all their AI-linked names. So, Palantir is part of this macro thematic short, an AI enthusiasm that's just inflated with higher than should be valuations. So, options allow us to price these sort of predictions in. Options are the great equalizer in investing. They allow for you to measure probabilities and speculation, volatility of a stock, how much upside or downside the market projects over a given period of time.
And we can do that with the option prices today. So, if we look at Palantir with Michael Burry's assessment that it's a $50 stock or maybe a $60 stock, we'll say, we can put some probabilities and some context, some math behind those two assumptions. So, let's say that you thought Palantir would be at 50 at the end of this year.
We'll go into January of 2027. How you could price that probability would be using the options. You can go to the January 20 27 options. You can add these two columns to your tastytrade platform, delta and probability of being in the money, which is our probability of touch here. And on the downside, you can quantify this.
So, if you thought that it was going to be at 50 or you wanted to know what the probability that the market sees the price of Palantir being 50 in the next year is, you can look at the 50 strike puts. The 50 strike puts currently trade at about a dollar 34, which I think is roughly what Michael Burry was buying them for.
You can look at these puts and put a put context to the probabilities. The delta of that option is roughly the probability that that option will be in the money at expiration. What that means is over the next 304 days, the probability of Palantir being 50 or below is about 2%. Super, super low probability.
But, there's a lot of time in that option and there's a lot of things that can happen. So, when you look at the probability of touch, the probability of touch is usually a multiple depending on the time value of the option relative to the delta. Usually, on a 30 to 40-day time frame, it's going to be two times the the delta as a probability of being uh of being touched at that strike, being right at that strike at some point in the next 300 days.
In that context, the probability that we touch $50 on Palantir in 304 at 304 days is about 17%. So, Michael Burry's bet that the stock would be at or below 50 in the next 300 days is about a 2% probability at that expiration. Now, at some point prior to that expiration, it's around a 17% probability of touch. Would you make that bet? That's it.
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