Tom Lee Says Ethereum Can 10x, but Almost Nobody Read the Condition

요약 보기

톰 리는 이더리움이 5,000달러를 돌파하면 현재가 대비 10배 상승 가능하다고 주장. 영상은 ETHA 옵션 내재변동성과 만기별 1표준편차 범위를 분석해 2027년 12월 ETHA 38달러(이더리움 약 5,000달러 해당) 도달이 확률적으로 가능하다고 설명. 현재 이더리움은 약 2,700달러, 역대 최고 4,946달러 대비 45% 낮음. 진행자는 톰 리가 최대 보유 기업 소속임을 지적하며 이해상충 가능성 언급.

다듬은 글

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01. Tom Lee says Ethereum can go up 10x from the current price and almost nobody is reading the condition he put on it. The first one was a 62x upside breakout. The second one was a 17x. So, we're faced with the third one uh which if Ethereum can break 5,000, you know, we think it could go uh a 10x from here.

02. So, the 10x isn't from here. It starts at 5,000. That little word if is doing all the work. Here's the problem. Ethereum is at 2,700 right now. Getting to 5,000 is an 84% move and 5,000 sits above the all-time high of 4946 from August 2025, which Ethereum is still 45% below. The starting line is higher than the record.

03. One thing you should know before we look at this, Tom Lee is the chairman of the board at Bitmain, the biggest public Ethereum treasury holding about 4.8% of every coin in circulation, a fun little factoid. So, is Tom Lee early or is he talking his book? Let's check out ETHA and see what the options say with an equivalent share price of 3785 if Ethereum were to go to 5,000.

04. So, here we are in the platform. We're looking at ETHA and ETHA is sitting right around $20 a share with an IV rank of nine. So, implied volatility here is pretty low all things considered. And when you look at the current implied volatility of 58%, it's still decently high uh just in general. When you look at products that have implied volatility of 50-60%, the premium's still going to be pretty good, but it just shows that the IV rank, the actual implied volatility of ETHA is still pretty low for ETHA itself.

05. So, take that with a grain of salt and recognize that the projections that we talk about are going to be based on a current IV rank that's really low even though the implied volatility itself is still pretty decent. I like to use ETHA instead of Ethereum futures for this one simply because we've got way more options expirations in ETHA relative to the ETH futures and you have to utilize the options expirations to derive these probabilities of getting back to 38 which would be hitting 5,000 ETHA.

06. So, lots to talk about here, but let's go through the end of the year. Let's see what the the probabilities are here. So, looking at the delta, we can look at the probability being in the money as well, but the one standard deviation range sitting right around 25 26. So, we're talking about ETHA reaching 38 or around there.

07. And as of right now through the end of the year, we actually don't even have a 38 strike, which is interesting. We only go as high as 35. So, the market is pricing basically a a non-event that this is possible at least right now through the end of the year. Anything's possible with these things. We can see ETHA rip higher significantly, but as of right now, the two standard deviation range is in the low 30s.

08. So, we would have to exceed a two standard deviation range for the end of this year, which would be a huge move. It's basically doubling ETH's price as it stands. But as we go further out in time, let's take a look at December of 2027 and let's examine these probabilities. So, December of 2027, just over a year from now, we're actually looking at a one standard deviation range around 35.

09. So, we're getting a little closer. Plenty of premium up here and it's always interesting to see how high the strikes go. In December 2027, we've got way more strike selection and still premium up here. None of these options are zero bid, which means there are people actively trading these things. The two standard deviation range brings us to like 50 in ETHA.

10. So, that is well above that 5,000 mark. And then last but not least, let's take a to at Jan 2028 and then we can we can go crazy and go to Jan 2029 as well. But again, highest strike available here is 60 right in that same range as the Jan 2027. But to get to 38, we've got a 30 delta one standard deviation range there at 38.

11. So it's looking pretty probable over the next two years or so that we get to that level up at 38 if the market continues the way it is. Seeing a lot of strength today in the E-minis and Nasdaq and the crypto markets as well. But let's check out 2029. Are there are there strikes? Nope. So we only go up to 35 in 2029.

12. So that's interesting. I think this has a lot to do with the longer-term nature of the LEAP options. Sometimes you'll see strike differences between a one-year, two-year, three-year LEAP. Not much activity going on in this one, but the in-the-money probability still right around there around that 35 strike.

13. So I would say if we're going to use one of these, I would use the 100-day, the Jan 2027 or the Dec 2027 is the one we looked at, the 438-day. These ones have the most strikes. They've got active markets in here and I think the more strikes you have that are open, the more clear that one standard deviation range is going to be because you've got strikes that are well above the current market price.

14. So I like this one, the Dec 2027. But again, about a one standard deviation range to get up to 38, which is the equivalent of Ethereum reaching or exceeding 5,000. But let me know what you think. Do you think we're going to 5,000 first? Do you think we're going to 10 in ETH first? Let me know what you think channel and we'll see you on the next episode of Options Math Check.