저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 Pershing Square가 넷플릭스를 신규 편입했다는 소식을 계기로, 옵션 시장 가격(IV·확률)을 통해 넷플릭스 주가의 향후 변동 가능성을 점검한다. 현재가 약 77달러, 애널리스트 평균 목표가 약 94달러(약 22% 상승 여력). 10월 실적발표 전후 IV가 약 37%로 상승해 약 7달러(약 10%) 변동이 반영돼 있다. 94달러 콜은 연말까지 도달 확률이 약 36~40%로 계산되며, 65~55달러 하방 풋은 낮은 확률로 가격이 형성돼 시장은 하락 가능성을 낮게 보고 있다는 해석을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square just revealed six new positions. The most notable of these is Netflix. Ekman briefly owned them in 2022, but sold after losses that cut the fund's returns by four percentage points. Now Pershing is back and claims that Netflix has actually won the “ streaming wars.” Here are the calculations.
Netflix shares are priced at around $77, while the average Wall Street price target is around $94 per share. This represents a growth potential of approximately 22%. The bullish scenario includes over 325 million subscribers, a forecast operating margin of 31 %, and approximately $3 billion in advertising revenue this year.
But how much would it cost to achieve that $94 target using options? Let's take a look in today's episode of "Options Math Check." So, we're on the platform, looking at the Netflix chart, and, uh, it's looking pretty bleak. A recent peak of $100 a share in April, then a pretty aggressive sell-off all the way to a recent low of $65, but we're up 10 points since then, and that's pretty steady growth.
If we zoom out a little , we will see that this is not the whole story. We reached a recent high in June of last year, 2025, at around $134 per share. So we're about half of that, but still well above 2022, 2023, and 2024. The shares were trading at a split-adjusted price of $20–30 per share. So we're still holding strong above these levels, but I find it interesting to look at the options market, especially the 30-day cycle.
Uh, and actually, I think we should look a little further. They have an earnings report coming up in October. Uh , the end of October, around October 20, is what the market sets in prices. You can always see this by looking at the IV (implied volatility) indicator on the right. So, you can see implied volatility at just over 30%, and then it rises sharply to 37% in October.
This indicates that the market is pricing in a certain binary event and we see an implied move of $7 over the next 2 months, which is about 10% of the current stock price. So looking at October, uh, to calculate the probability of hitting $94 or $95 a share, which is the target, you can see that the probability of making a profit on this option in October is about 10%.
So, there's about a 20% chance that we'll reach that at any point before the end of the cycle. So it's not bad from a probability perspective, but if you look at a 25-point decline , we see a much lower probability and a much lower premium, which I find interesting. So if we zoom out and look at these options together, we see a 55 strike put, 25 or 20 points out of the money to the downside, trading for only 10 cents with a 3% probability.
Then look at the 95 strike call, which is a 60 cent option that trades with three times the probability . So I think the market clearly perceives velocity risk as upside, because at 20 points higher the premium is significantly higher than the opposite equidistant out-of-the-money option. But let's look at the end of the year.
The probabilities, of course, will be significantly higher because we add more time, we extend the range of results to December. But just for a mathematical check, yes. Strike 94 is trading at around $2.50 with an 18% probability of being in the money. So, there's a 40% chance that we'll touch 94 at any point before the end of the year.
And, indeed, given that we just had a 10- point move in a week, I think it's fair to assume that our chances of getting a 20-point move over the next 127 days aren't all that improbable . So, looking at the same example, if we go down to strike 55, it's a similar story. Much lower implied volatility, much lower probability that we will fall to this level.
And this may reflect a kind of perception of the minimum price level of Netflix, all things considered, but the premium is much higher, as are the probabilities, if you compare these options. A change of $2 in the up direction, 50 cents in the down direction . So the market is effectively saying that we probably should n't expect Netflix to go below 70, 60, or even 55, which is a recent low of around 65.
And I think that makes sense. We haven't seen Netflix below 65, 60, or 55 for the past 2 years. And while we have seen it much higher, we are now at the bottom of the recent trading range. So, I think it's likely that we'll at least reach a strike price of 94, with an 18% chance that this option will be profitable by the end of the year, which is about a 36-40% chance of reaching that price at some point before expiration.
But let me know what you think about it. Report whether an earnings announcement could trigger " bullish" or "bearish" sentiment. We may see neutral swings in the middle over the next few months. But let me know in the comments. Like this video, subscribe to the Tastytrade channel, and see you at the next analysis of options mathematics.
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