저자: ChamathPalihapitiya외StacyRasgon · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 향후 5년 내 50~60조 달러 시가총액 가능하다는 주장이 제시됨. 마이크로소프트·메타의 AI 투자 확대 발언으로 엔비디아가 12% 급등했으나 시간외에서 차익실현 매도가 나왔다고 설명. 차마스는 AI가 강력한 디플레이션 요인이며 기업 마진이 장기적으로 높아질 것으로 봄. 자본지출 가이던스 상향이 반도체 상승의 핵심이라는 Rasgon의 견해가 함께 소개되며, 고평가 리스크와 경쟁·기술변화 위험도 언급됨.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock should easily attain a market valuation of between $50 trillion and $60 trillion over the next five years in my opinion Microsoft and meta both stated that there is a greater need for AI and that they will continue to expand their capacity which caused Nvidia to Surge 12% I am aware that you have discussed this topic extensively in the past chamoth perhaps you could share your thoughts on this week's remarks in the past you have stated that there is now no tangible return on investment and that much of this buildout is well ahead however it's evident that some of the purchasers of this Capital Equipment are saying Hey There is Roi and we're going to continue to build aggressively therefore perhaps you could briefly discuss whether anything has changed or if they are merely defending their previous choices unfortunately it's just another instance of sell the news after hours these things rallied and if you look at them they have all simply returned all of their gains I believe that everyone is aware that Nvidia was the original developer of Tesla's Innovative technology until the firm fin I for instance some rare additions have sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars and one specific model is presently going for $19,000 you may get yours right now by clicking the link below but don't delay stock is very limited we are at the very end of the AI hype cycle people seize the chance to sell in large quantities once these things Spike Nvidia after all sold 38 million shares today yes it's insane it's actually trading like a penny stock at the start of the day then plummeting like a liad balloon meta recovered but they have essentially given up all of their gains today it has declined sharply however the idea is not that these businesses will fail that is untrue in order to book the earnings people are currently optimizing and selling whenever they can and it makes sense in my opinion since nobody can predict when all of this Phantom money will materialize therefore this is unrelated to what we would refer to as the economy unrelated to the recent rate and recessionary discussions look I mean I'm currently dealing with a 90 in this situation being able to launch a business at the helm of what I believe to be the most significant wave in my professional life since social networking has been one of the highlights of my career in an attempt to surf the best wave possible I dove into the center of that one this is where I'm doing it my honest conclusion however after working on this project for the past seven months and I want to continue for however many years it takes to establish a profitable business is that artificial intelligence is a a huge deflationary Force the outcomes are very significant in terms of the amount of efficiency you can capture and the costs you can save and it doesn't cost that much and because it enables us to charge differently than incumbent Solutions the right entrepreneurs that is companies who are starting from scratch like my co-founders and I at 8090 will'll pass it on to our clients therefore I fail to see a way where a multiple of the money spent appears all at once I fail to to see it I do see a way for businesses to find amazing consider it this way what is the most profitable operational company that existed in the 1980s would you ask yourself if you were looking at the 1980s although I'm not familiar with that business I have a suspicion that their ebitda margins were in the neighborhood of 30 to 40% and they were very likely amazing in 40 years the most efficient business is most likely one that operates at ebitda margins of 50 or 60% in actuality the top a enabled business will most likely have 70 to 80% profit margins within the next 15 to 20 years that's a huge prediction and it's an amazing thing but it will reinforce the fundamental principle of capitalism that everyone seems to forget you compete out excess return therefore even though there will be thousands and thousands of businesses with operating margins of 60% or more they will be in considerably smaller Market markets therefore I believe that although the market as a whole expands the number of businesses increases by an even greater order of magnitude in all of that the truth is that these huge people will find it quite difficult to recognize the value capture that justifies any of this expenditure in light of the capital expenditures that have occurred here I believe that you will need to do some kind of reset because of its crucial role in the a revolution Nvidia has drawn the attention of investors from all across today nvidia's stock increased once again strong performance from rival AMD yesterday caused the stock to Surge increasing its market capitalization by $327 billion even with the recent upswing nvidia's stock is currently about 13% behind its peak we'd like to welcome Stacy rascan managing director and Senior Analyst at Bernstein to join us in talking about the future of Nvidia and some of its Rivals it's wonderful to speak with you once more Stacy it appears that a large portion of that enthusiasm has now returned in light of amd's results yesterday do you believe that mood has simply changed therefore I don't believe it had anything to do with amd's performance I believe it has to do with the capital expenditure guidelines that many hyperscalers like Google Microsoft and meta are releasing those capital expenditure outlooks all appear to be pretty encouraging I believe that the a trade has been driven by the fact that we are beginning to see those numbers continue to rise actually I don't believe it was amd's performance amd's performance wasn't particularly poor they somewhat followed their own a guidelines but I don't believe they did so to the extent that people had anticipated it wasn't higher than people believed in my opinion what does it tell us about the potential opportunity and upside for these chip makers Stacy based on the capital expenditure guide that we're receiving from some of these hyperscalers you see when you look ahead to where expectations are some of the numbers are really high for organizations like this you want to see those numbers increase since the hyperscalers are large clients and account for a large portion of that spending if you go back a quarter or two ago this was an issue a significant discrepancy existed at that time between many of these a names and the capital expenditure Outlook the capital expenditure guidelines have been increasing significantly in addition to raising its capital expenditure plan for the year meta I believe announced last night that they would be making significant increases the next year that in my opinion is what matters most people's main concern is if there will be an air pocket because so much money is being spent and the numbers have grown so rapidly people are concerned about sustainability and from what we've heard from some of our clients it appears that the expenditure is at least for the time being sustainable that I believe believe has been the main factor what will these businesses need to demonstrate in order to expand into the high figures we've been talking about Stacy as we consider growing into some of these valuations lofty valuations are not the same as lofty numbers so proceed with caution these businesses aren't all pricey consider a business like Nvidia which is actually much less expensive now than it was a year or a year and a half ago when the Run began because the profits forecasts have increased significantly more than the stocks increase the question then arises are the profits indeed attainable clearly the numbers must increase in my opinion the buy side numbers will be significantly higher given the current state of the sell-side data any increase in consumer spending and any clarification on company models what they are really doing with this money are beneficial and I would think that the feedback we getting from the supply chain and customers is positive at least for the time being because of the inherent volatility of the computer sector even Market leaders like Nvidia May encounter serious difficulties economic uncertainty and Market swings might affect stock performance long-term investors may be exposed to significant risks due to the high value of Nvidia stock if the firm does not live up to the high standards set by the market furthermore nvidia's long-term performance may be impacted by changes in technological Trends pressure from competitors or unanticipated Market disruptions so investors must carefully assess
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