저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 비트코인 반감기 이후 ETF 등 기관 수요로 공급 불균형이 심해 가격이 크게 오를 것으로 봄. 포트폴리오의 1~2%를 비트코인에 배분하라고 권고. 경기침체 우려는 시장 참여자들의 과도한 공포로 보며, 마이너 주식은 장기적으로 비트코인을 상회할 것이라 주장. 최근 조정은 매수 기회이며 연말까지 10만 달러 이상 상승을 확신. 12월 계절성, 금리 하락, 센티먼트 역전, 트럼프·연준 풋 등을 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
I think what the mistake people think is they have to buy a whole Bitcoin and I mean they can buy a Satoshi a Satoshi every day instead of a latte and more importantly you know if Bitcoin Network value plays out and Bitcoin yeah let's take uran's number okay so it's a 20 times increase from here anyone who's long Bitcoin won't care about inflation that's the important thing because it's really just a dollar getting cheaper it's not I mean that's really what they're experiencing financial analyst and Bitcoin bll Tom Lee discusses his prediction for all Bitcoin investors and why he believes $400 trillion is about to pour into Bitcoin after the Bitcoin harving earlier this year which Lee says marked the beginning of an absolute surge in price we saw multiple all-time highs for Bitcoin Bitcoin is down just over 8% this week currently sitting above 97,000 , 400 but Lee believes we're about to witness one of the biggest price rises in history since the creation of the dominant cryptocurrency the story has become even bigger in 2024 because of the Bitcoin ETFs with thousands of institutional investors across the United States now buying Bitcoin the demand for the leading digital asset has increased exponentially and more than the daily Supply this has caused a hyper neverbe seen Supply demand imbalance for Bitcoin and Tom Lee says everything is about to change you know Bitcoin is now essentially a Bonafide asset class I mean it has the backing of Black Rock which is the largest asset manager in the world um Larry fin even today was speaking post earnings about how important Bitcoin is to the future of Black Rock and it's something that they're encouraging clients to adopt I think that people the mistake someone might make if they're interested in Bitcoin is thinking they have to go 100% of their portfolio into it they only need to put 2% or 5% and you know if you think about someone sitting on cash that's like one year's worth of interest on their portfolio they just have to dedicate to crypto we made that recommendation when we first wrote about Bitcoin that they should put 1 to 2% today if they didn't rebalance that recommendation um it's 80% of their total portfolio so it's been a you know huge winner for our clients and and many have told us it's really changed their lives by making a what they saw as a kind of a lowrisk bet you know 2% allocation into crypto and I think that's how people should look at it today because Bitcoin isn't um peing you know it's not that widely adopted yet there's still so many Skeptics and you know there's many Financial firms that are restricting their clients from having access to exchange versions of Bitcoin so the ETF today is not even approved for many firms and it tells me that there's still a lot of future holders of crypto and I think the mistake someone could make today thinking bitcoin's not relevant is the financial system does work really well in the US for wealthy Americans but even in America I think I think only 45% of Americans actually have a bank account and another 25% consider prepaid credit cards and debit cards as their primary form of banking I mean it banking is very expensive in America and that's for one of the wealthiest Nations in the world outside the US you know crypto is really going to prove to be a much more lowcost banking system for folks especially if they want to do remittances and move money around the world I me I think Bitcoin is blurring but even what the definition of money is you know um I mean it's already blurred the definition of of like of community benefiting from holding something CU you know uh in a traditional Financial system let's say you take Amazon and you have Amazon customers and they contributed to the growth in the fact that Amazon is one of the largest companies today you know it's really the customers and the Loyalty of the community of buyers and sellers but the only people that benefited from that are actually the shareholders the ones who actually provided the capital to Amazon so it didn't create value for the community itself I mean Bitcoin is so different right because Bitcoin is benefiting those who are actually holding it and using it embracing an unyielding enthusiasm for the Bitcoin realm Lee confidently predicts that explosive growth is looming on the horizon as Black Rock and many other crypto Giants are doing just that Tom Lee reassures that a long expected surge awaits as we head into 2025 don't forget our partners at Jamie Tree Finance have launched a daily 5minute crypto newsletter with all the latest crypto and bitcoin news it's a fantastic analysis of onchain crypto data and breakdowns and the best part it's absolutely free which will cover expert predictions breakdowns of onchain crypto data and any breaking news that you need to know all in a nutshell click the first link in the description and enter your email to join over 5,000 others in becoming a better crypto investor right now that's why I think it is really blurring what it what an asset is um cuz it's bluring loyalty and rewards along with equity and Capital um and rent seeking I mean all these Concepts together so the idea that it's also blurring the definition of money to me makes sense I mean I've been following markets for almost or actually for more than three decades believe it or not and um so I've experienced and covered many recessions um recessions rarely happen when every when markets are all saying a recession is imminent uh markets participants aren't that smart so the fact that so many people think recession is imminent and it and we see it I mean we do many meetings with clients institutional investors that view recession as their base case I mean that that that would just mean everyone suddenly is a great forecaster of the economy and as you know nobody can forecast the economy we don't try to forecast the economy but the only reason we think a recession is less likely is because everybody thinks a recession is likely mining is important for Bitcoin I mean there is no Bitcoin without Mining and the miners I I'd say it's been trickier as equities cuz I'm thinking about them as stocks cuz they are essentially beta to bitcoin but I I'd say over the course of the cycle they should outperform Bitcoin but it it's you know of course I know it's been tough because you know we have a lot of clients that have been long Miners and you know today's been an okay day but really for for this year it's been very painful for them to own it versus Bitcoin this is another buying opportunity in our viiew 202 has proven to be a year where the Market's been strong and it has eluded many opportunities for sustained weakness I know yesterday's pullback was really painful but to us I think it's a good opportunity for investors here you know as context the market has been bleeding lower if you look at internals for the last 10 days yesterday looks capitulo because not only did we have a 90% down day but the vix the spot vix exploded by 75% there's only four times in history where it's risen 60% in a day so yesterday was the fifth time in its 35e history of those four times the market recovered all of its losses within a week three out of the four times the fifth time it took the fourth time sorry it took a month so I think what you had was people panicking to get out of what they thought was a a momentum trade that's ending because we're so close to your end but here's the interesting thing the Ford vix futures barely moved so it was almost as if people were seeking protection through the vix yesterday unfortunately when markets get nervous and their risk off and of course buyers disappear stocks that aren't as liquid get hit harder there's a lot of folks who don't want Bitcoin over 100,000 and and some of it maybe the exchanges themselves are concerned because there is a pretty low supply of Bitcoin available over the counter so you have a supply shortage I'm still confident bitcoin's going to close much higher before year end well above 100,000 before year end December historically is a strong month but when you're up more than 10% in the first half and it's an election year December's been up 100% of the time the second is yields have moved down to pre to pre-election levels you know the 10 years at 4.1 that's good for multiple expansion the third is I think it's been surprising but sentiments actually turned negative the last two weeks even as the markets rally to me that's a contrarian bullish signal and then finally we still have those two puts the Trump put and the fed put and I think that means you you still want to buy any of these dips Tom Lee challenges the conventional economic metrics asserting that these metrics are often manipulated to paint a specific narrative like Labor Statistics and inflation figures the ongoing adoption of Bitcoin by governments institutions and media signifies a broader recognition of its value however Lee asserts this journey is just the beginning comparing the initial years to the current widespread interest and investment with a giant Spotlight on bitcoin ETFs Lee highlights this being a significant development in the financial ecosystem selectively measured to create desired effects rather than reflecting the true state of the economy in this context Bitcoin emerges as an alternative detached from the manipulations of the conventional economic sphere Lee also highlights that established corporations like apple Amazon and Google will use their established relationships acquired over decades to swiftly acquire substantial amounts of Bitcoin through a spot ETF bypassing the cumbersome processes involved in procuring the actual commodity this disparity underscores the transformative power of cryptocurrencies In traditional financial institutions Michael sailor underscores the importance of embracing digital currencies as the economic landscape is changing rapidly and urges investors to leverage bitcoin's potential to secure a more prosperous Financial future what do you think about the latest interview with Tom Lee and how do you think bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months will impact the crypto market and the world of investing
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