저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 행정부의 친암호화폐 정책과 비트코인 전략자산 검토를 근거로 비트코인 강세를 주장. 반감기 이후 ETF 수요가 일일 공급을 크게 초과한다고 봄. 2025년 목표가 약 25만 달러 제시. 장기 투자 관점에서 비트코인 비중 1~5% 추천, 달러코스트에버리징과 장기 보유 강조. 2025년에는 연준 완화, 선거 불확실성 해소, 트럼프 풋을 주식 순풍으로 봄. 관세와 정부지출 삭감(DOGE)은 리스크로 언급.
다듬은 글
Christmas comes early with the new head of the FTC for Tech it's probably the best way to sort of measure this is what bitcoin's doing because Bitcoin faced enormous regulatory burdens over the last few years and now we have a white house that's embracing digital assets a new SEC chairman FTC chairman a new Commerce Secretary I think these are actually being viewed as Pro business but I think a good proxy is watching Bitcoin all right now I'm going to have to pin you to a Target again on bitcoin cuz I mean you've been among the most optimistic and outspoken about it for years to be quite honest so here we are above 100,000 what's a legit Target for 2025 for Bitcoin we think it's it's going to follow a similar having cycle that we've seen in the past that would imply something around 250,000 for Bitcoin in 2025 uh and on top of that we have a trump put because Bitcoin is potentially a strategic Reserve asset for the the US government financial analyst and Bitcoin ball Tom Lee discusses his prediction for all Bitcoin investors and why he believes 400 trillion dollars is about to pour into Bitcoin after the Bitcoin harving earlier this year which Lee says marked the beginning of an absolute surge in price we saw multiple all-time highs for Bitcoin Bitcoin is currently sitting just above 102,000 up over 13% in the past month Lee believes Bitcoin is about to make history as we witness one of the biggest price Rises so far since the creation of the dominant cryptocurrency the story has become even bigger in 2024 because of the Bitcoin ETFs with thousands of institutional investors across the United States now buying Bitcoin the demand for the leading digital asset has increased exponentially and more than the daily Supply this has caused a hyper neverbe seen Supply demand imbalance for Bitcoin and Tom Lee says everything is about to change don't forget our partners at Jam Tree Finance have launched a daily 5-minute crypto newsletter with all the latest crypto and bitcoin news it's a fantastic analysis of onchain crypto data and breakdowns and the best part it's absolutely free which will cover expert predictions breakdowns of onchain crypto data and any breaking news that you need to know all in a nutshell click the first link in the description and enter your EMA email to join over 5,000 others in becoming a better crypto investor right now I'm a Believer in Bitcoin um we've recommended it for our clients uh for more than eight years um because we do think it's uh an important asset to have exposure to our original recommendation was 1% you know today for newer investors I would recommend two to five the US government is itself is talking about making Bitcoin a strategic Reserve asset and I know there's some push back for a couple reasons one is you know Bitcoin is harder and less tangible relative to a hard asset like gold and the US Holdings of gold is actually around $660 billion today it's actually carried on the balance sheet at a at 1971 cost so it's carried at 11 billion but the US has $660 billion worth of gold um Bitcoin is uh trading at 10% of the network asset value of gold today so it's a $2 trillion asset versus gold at 20 trillion uh so I would say if the US was just trying to diversify its you know currency Holdings you know they should own 60 billion incrementally of Bitcoin at least but I think it's a very interesting question because I've heard a lot of people weigh in that if if the US starts to own Bitcoin is reserve asset that it would affect dollar dominance the one thing I would just point out is that in the digital assets world when we look at crypto pricing the dollar is by country mile um a bigger Reserve asset all almost all the stable coins I would say if you like at stable coin dominance it's 90% dollar so in a digital native world the dollar is more important than the Euro you know the rimi than the Yen you know the one the only currency people really quote crypto assets in is USD so I think think if that's appr proxy dollar dominance would actually be bigger in a in a future Bitcoin world what would your asset allocation recommendation be for a young couple with a little bit of money that wants to start investing right now I think one of the key words that you said Scott was young I think when someone's young uh they have time on their side um a young person let's say someone in their 30s has 60 years uh on their investment Horizon and and that is a huge huge Advantage um because most people who invest only think one month ahead um or even one day ahead uh so there's a couple things I'd offer advice has number one is um over the long term the ups and downs of the market matter less because everything that has growth grows in value so I think Equity should always be a big part of someone's allocation but that that also should include real estate because land um has a a good history and of course owning Bitcoin or gold um or both the second thing I would just note is the really the importance of dollar cost averaging um I think many people feel anxious at the top that they have to put all their chips into the market um they don't they should have a program to invest steadily and so we always advise dollar cost averaging so whether that means you make a a commitment to buy every month or you buy every time there's a dip I'd really recommend people dollar cost average and the third piece of advice I'd give people is that they need to be uh really patient and as much as someone thinks buying at the top is dangerous um JP Morgan's private bank has a very famous chart that shows if you only if you bought the S&P only at all-time highs you actually had better returns than dollar cost averaging in general meaning it's actually okay to buy at all-time highs because you know you're in a bull market of course there'll be one day when you're you actually bought and it literally is the high but if you have 20 years you never had a negative rolling 10year period so as long as you own something for 10 years you don't have to worry about buying at the highs embracing an yielding enthusiasm for the Bitcoin realm Lee confidently predicts that explosive growth is looming on the horizon as Black Rock and many other crypto Giants are doing just that Tom Lee reassures that a long expected surge awaits as we head into 2025 as we look forward to 2025 I think that the fundamental visibility is much better than it was at the start of 2024 meaning we have a fed that's doish and I'd consider consider that you know a fed put we have the election behind us which was really a source of angst in 2024 and the incoming president is very Pro equities so I'd call that a trump put that's a Tailwind we know businesses have been cautious for the last two and a half years plus the inflation wave plus a Fed that was trying to quash inflation so I think Animal Spirits return so these are the Tailwinds that are positive for equities in 2025 I think some of the initiatives um have a lot of positive potential others carry with it risk um you know on the things that carry risk is how the economy will be affected by mass deportations if that happens um yeah the notion of tariffs you know tariffs can be an important tool but um tariffs can be very disruptive to a global economy um and then there's also Doge the department of government efficiency that I think if if we were in a crisis moment Doge could be extremely effective but at the same time uh you know tackling government spending is something that I think is extremely difficult and fraught with uh visibility risk and I think it poses risks for companies that are big government contractors so that's what we have to watch and then of the the other thing I think that really Bears watching is is Bitcoin because I think there is a lot of policy that's being built around Bitcoin finally being more accepted you know the sandbox changing for Bitcoin to be something that the US government potentially Embraces Tom Lee challenges the conventional economic metrics asserting that these metrics are often manipulated to paint a specific narrative like Labor Statistics and inflation figures the ongoing adoption of Bitcoin by governments institutions and media signifies a broader recognition of its value however Lee asserts this journey is just the beginning comparing the initial years to the current widespread interest and investment with a giant Spotlight on bitcoin ETFs Lee highlights this being a significant development in the financial ecosystem selectively measured to create desired effects rather than reflecting the true state of the economy in this context Bitcoin emerges as an alternative detached from the manipulations of the conventional economic sphere Lee also highlights that established corporations like apple Amazon and Google will use their established relationships acquired over decades to swiftly acquire substantial amounts of Bitcoin through a spot ETF bypassing the cumbersome processes involved in procuring the actual commodity this disparity underscores the transformative power of cryptocurrencies In traditional financial institutions Michael sailor underscores the importance of embracing digital currencies as the economic landscape is changing rapidly and urges investors to leverage bitcoin's potential to secure a more prosperous financial future what do you think about the latest interview with Tom Lee and how do you think bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months will impact the crypto market and the world of investing
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