저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인 ETF 도입 후 기관 자금 유입으로 비트코인 강세 전망. 연준은 인플레이션 둔화와 디플레이션 우려로 금리를 인하할 것이며 이는 위험자산과 비트코인에 호재. 기본 시나리오 2030년 비트코인 64만 달러, 강세 시나리오 150만 달러 제시. 규제 입법 가능성과 탈중앙 금융의 성장도 언급.
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we have everything focused on the long term but it takes short terms to make up a long term so by 2030 we are in print for our base case as saying that we believe Bitcoin will be at uh 640,000 uh by 2030 that's our base case the Bitcoin ETFs have increased the probability of our bull case which is $1.5 million Kathy Wood gives her market analysis and prediction for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead as well as why the Bitcoin ETFs will have such an impact in 2025 Kathy's bullish prediction for bitcoin's Value as an asset class will Surge from just over a trillion dollar today to $2 trillion that's over 20x the current value and will place bitcoin's price at over a million do thanks to Black Rock's significant influence and with major hedge funds and institutional investors now on board a moment many have been eagerly awaiting for well over a decade Arc invest CEO Kathy Wood highlights the decentralized and transparent nature of the Bitcoin Network making manipulation highly unlikely let's get right into the interview with Kathy Wood don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe if you enjoy the content we do here on this channel I think one of the reasons for the Regional Bank crisis was the FED raising rates at a faster rate than it ever has up 24 fold in 17 months never seen anything close to that chairman vulker increased uh interest rates twofold not 24 fold uh so that was part of the Regional Bank crisis and notice Bitcoin went up during that so uh and and it is true it probably was anticipating uh the the financing program that the fed put in place which was a bit of a jog toward easing now and then and then it went back a reverse course so um uh we think that the FED is going to cut rates now there there are a lot of confusing economic data uh we hear something from companies and something very different from the government in terms of economic activity they're not matching up they're not matching up at all and so I find that very interesting I I think the FED is going to figure out that there is much more stress in the system that the Regional Bank crisis was the first sign of it and we'll get other reminders uh and that um they will move into a rate cutting now what we really think is going to happen is uh it's it's going to be less about real economic indicators it's going to be about price deflation we think and Walmart has said we're going to have to cut prices that's deflation that's not disinflation even it's deflation and uh I believe the FED is going to be shocked at uh broad-based price deflation this year and that that will be they're using now inflation as their primary gauge they're not as focused on real economic activity because inflation has come down even without a recession uh I think we've been in a rolling recession but nonetheless so inflation is the primary variable they're watching uh we think there's going to be deflation so they'll get 2% all right and it'll keep falling um so they'll lower interest rates that will be very good for uh risk assets and Bitcoin among them it was interesting um I think it was in uh late in the fourth quarter ear early earlier in January uh Bitcoin led the market uh and so if you know began to and so we're watch ing Bitcoin now and of course we're having a sell on the news moment uh and I don't know how far that's going to go um this is high frequency trading it's people getting in just for that short uh short uh boost and and now getting out um but institutions and these retail platforms are going to start moving in and then we'll see the scarcity value I don't think chairman gendler will uh remain at the SEC who whoever is elected I think he has aspirations for political uh some kind of political appointment so he may go so uh yeah the SEC could drag its feed uh but I think the court cases have spoken pretty loudly we'll get lots of information uh about what and what is not a security uh during that trial the gendler could could be in the way the crypto Community eagerly awaits further developments as these analyses are likely to have significant impacts on the Market's Direction in the days and weeks ahead you know if you look back in history we have had an experience like this before it was when derivatives were launched and the SEC and the cftc were vying for power over regulatory power over derivatives and uh that forced legislation so that both the SEC and the cftc have a role in derivatives uh oversight uh but those roles are clearly delineated and they don't cross over I think the same thing is going to happen here this could be an election year issue and I think that's one reason we are seeing so many Congressmen um getting well so well educated on what this is I mean I heard Congressman french hill a couple of weeks ago and I said wow he's come up the learning curve so quickly and and and and knows so much this is fantastic knowledge and education knowledge is power education obviously is the root to uh uh to knowledge so I think um yes I think the odds I don't know how high they are but in the next two years I think the odds of legislation are very high I don't know how the election year complicates it I do know that there are voters out there who are one-issue voters and and they are crypto voters and I know that Washington is hearing that loudly and clearly I think when people uh put something in their portfolio they're apt to watch it a little more closely than they and maybe seek out a little bit more education even if their advisors have put them in and certainly the advisors have to uh have to educate themselves so I think once more and more people educate themselves and understand what this is It's a technology yes and it's a monetary system uh then I think uh they're going to understand why it's taking off in emerging markets and why everyone should have a little bit of an insurance policy called Bitcoin uh and last year the Regional Bank crisis was a great case in point I think many people were shocked as Regional Banks uh the K the Regional Bank index was imploding Bitcoin took off it went up 40 to 50% and and it was the first time that traditional investors many more took note wait a minute why did it do that this is supposed to be a risk on asset it's supposed to be very volatile and highly correlated with risky assets what just happened uh and what they learned there was that hey it's a it's a risk off asset too why because there's no counterparty risk like there is in our banking system you're not going to uh you're not going to be held hostage like you were in 0809 wondering if your bank was going to survive or you'd get any more than 250,000 the the guarantee FDIC guarantee out of your bank so this doesn't happen with Bitcoin educ ation wow how many riskof and risk on assets are there so uh I think uh the more uh the more people come in the more they'll be comparing and contrasting what this is to what we have in the traditional Financial world and guess what this is better this is better and it is why Emerging Markets uh talk about needing an insurance policy in hyper inflating economies it's an it's an insurance policy against counterparty risk inflation and deflation Kathy Wood points out with real money now flowing in she emphasizes that the crypto Market has become more significant than ever institutional investors are driving the price of cryptocurrency which will yield massive gains in the next 3 months wood believes this will underscore bitcoin's enduring relevance as an asset and as a hedge against currency devaluation she anticipates that BTC will continue its parabolic run right into the harving of 2024 Cathy Wood's main focal points this year has also been the movement in crypto legislation in the house signaling the growing interest in the crypto space although crypto legislation might face challenges due to political opposition wood advises the company in which she invests to spend heavily now in order to take advantage of huge growth potential she estimates that ark's concentration on technology advancement is worth about 7 to $8 trillion or less than 10% of global equities markets Emerging Markets are relying on digital currency and Cathy believes that based on the current market Outlook decentralized finance will take over and usurp the roles of most financial services companies today they'll be able to offer lower rates to Savers and higher rates to borrowers what do you think of Kathy Wood's interview on The Current financial Market comment down below thanks so much for watching don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe for more content just like this we'll see you in the next video
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