저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 금리 인상 후 파월 기자회견과 점도표(SEP)를 분석. 인플레이션 기대치는 안정적이고 고용은 견조해 '인플레 통제 신호'로 해석. 장기 금리 상단 상승은 우려 요소로 언급. 연준이 중립금리 언급을 피해 불확실성이 있다고 평가. 10년-2년 스프레드 개선을 긍정 신호로 보나 채권시장은 아직 망설인다고 봄. 10월 추가 인상 확률 낮고 12월은 약 30%로 제시. 9월 시장 약세는 있으나 조정 시 매수 기회로 봄(긍정적 시각).
다듬은 글
Well, we got our raise. We expected this. That was the easy part. The rhetoric that followed was more complex. And I have to say, I'm a little disappointed. We have not received clarity on how far we are from a neutral rate. We have estimates from the economic development forecast, but if we compare them with previous ones, we know that they can change significantly.
I'll show you all the changes and delta in a moment, this is important. But one of the main takeaways— Powell told us: I'm not convinced that financial conditions are restrictive. My colleagues are not convinced that the financial conditions are restrictive. In my opinion, the market would be satisfied if he said that after the increase we were close to restrictive conditions.
We didn't hear that. We heard: we just removed the dose of stimulation. Damn it. It doesn't tell us how many more doses he has to extract from us. So, how much more stimulus are you going to remove from my forecasts? I can only handle a certain number of rate hikes. Although the economic outlook report was somewhat calmer.
But Powell runs this show. He is the head. Economic Forecast Report. He didn't even touch it. Again, he said "good day" regarding your report, which means I didn't feel it was a good day. Why do I say that? Because he started with "good afternoon" instead of "good afternoon" after lunch. What next, will he appear in the damn top hat?
Good afternoon. Well, that wasn't the case. Thanks, bro. Okay, let's move on to the economic outlook report, and we'll continue to discuss Powell's words, because there's a lot more detail there. Okay, economic forecast report. First, we found Donald Trump. Donald Trump is right here in this little orange circle.
The only low-hanging fruit is that it sees rates being lower than they are today by the end of 2027. There's only one person there, and it has to be Donald Trump. Okay, obviously this is someone Donald Trump should buy, because Donald Trump is not on the board. With that in mind, we see that the long-term trend is still consistently downward.
However, we have many supporters of two promotions in this field. What I find interesting is that we don't...and that could be considered a proponent of three raises. Well, you would probably call it a " two or three increases" because that would bring us to about 4.25 here. So, here are your supporters of two or three promotions.
Most forecasts for 2026 still remain in the range of two increases. But we have many who are expecting two or three raises. And it becomes a little clearer when we look at the range of estimates that we have here. Well, I want to mention the Japanese carry trade separately. The Japanese carry trade worsens when the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and people expect them to rise, or we lower and Japan unexpectedly raises .
So here we had a different situation. We are moving in the same direction as Japan. We are going up. We are going up 25 basis points. They are going to go up 50. We are moving together. Okay , the spread remains unchanged, a difference of 25 basis points between the two countries. This is not a shock to the carry trade.
This is not something to worry about. We have to go back to August 24th, and if you have big balls, as Warsh just hinted, he's probably not a eunuch. He actually has balls. So we had the coupon code "Worsh's balls " because we thought he would show us his balls. He, in fact, did just that. Anyway, you know, if you go back to August 2024, you'll realize that we had a labor market that was weakening.
We lowered rates, and Japan unexpectedly raised them. So, we were moving in opposite directions. Today we actually made it seem like we were moving in the same direction. So it's really not that big of a problem. Okay. So a quick mention of carry trade. Nothing serious. This is much more interesting.
Let's get a few things straight here . The first thing that was " bearish" was right here. This was a "bearish" signal. We actually saw growth, and it was literally not on our list of expectations. We saw the long-term final rate rise from 3.1 to 3.2. This created the highest final forecast we have seen in the last decade for the Fed rate.
This is the final forecast for this. And that brings us back to 2015, the end of 2015. And then we flew into the abyss. So this is the highest point we've seen for the Fed's final rate in the long term. So when I say "end-of-life," I want you to think about the period after 2030. This is serious business.
By the way, we'll also talk about the Reinvest terminal in a moment , but let's leave that for later because we have a lot of important things to discuss right now. You can see it on mereinvest.com. A very cool product is coming out in November and you can get free access to it if you join as an alpha member with the wars bulls coupon.
Really professional, I know, but just like some of the things we talk about on live broadcasts. So, what did this move signal? Today's rate hike is a sign of economic strength. They demonstrated confidence. They made it clear that there were no concerns about inflation. I'll show you what it looked like.
No concerns about the job market or the economy. And to be fair, they are already predicting a decline . Let me show you these details. First, I want you to look at the ranges here. Almost zero movement in the central trend of inflation for 2027 and essentially none, zero movement in 2028, and for 2029 the figure is even lower.
And this is the first time we've had an estimate for 2029 in the September SEP report, right? So what do we have here? Zero long-term inflation movement in 2028. They have a growth of 0.2-0.3 points in 2027 . Sorry, the numbers are from 2027. This is compared to just this data. The 2027 figures only increased by 0.1 on the lower bound right here .
So basically, this number where the arrow is is the latest SEP. This is the current SEP. So, essentially, they are not concerned about inflation . It was a promotion to build trust. This was not an increase because inflation got out of control. That's good. This is a "bullish" signal. It is "bearish" only because we have not received information about how far we are from the neutral rate.
This annoys people. It's a shame because we don't get the kind of forecasts we're used to. When we look at GDP, the labor market, and the unemployment rate, we see that the most bearish view of the labor market has actually become less bearish. The most pessimistic forecast dropped from 4.6% unemployment to 4.5%.
So literally no one at the Federal Reserve expects unemployment to rise due to labor force participation or other factors. When we look at GDP, the doves are predicting 2.1%, and the most hawks are predicting 2.7%. I actually expected them to revise the forecast upwards . They didn't do it. They forecast GDP.
Oh, sorry, GDP is the top line. 2.4 for ...oh, that's interesting. I just mixed up the numbers . I apologize for that. This doesn't matter much, as here we see that the inflation forecast has actually become tighter. This is the inflation line. The figure I mentioned here is stable relative to GDP. Here is the GDP indicator, it is stable here.
But this actually confirms even more what I said. They narrowed the inflation range. The inflation range changed from 2-3 to 2.1-2.7. So, they narrowed it down and downsized it to the long term . Sorry for the mistake. This happens sometimes. Kevin just, you know, slows down a little sometimes. Everything is fine.
Everything is fine. We all make mistakes. Just don't sue me, bro. Thank you, Halo announcer. Okay, what else did we learn? Delta, the previous SCP, reported the following. This was the previous, well, the previous SCP said we would see one rate hike and then a cut in 2027. This is the previous GDP or SCP right here.
This is current. What do they have now? So, previously there was one increase and one decrease in the 27th. What we have now is two increases with one decrease in 2028. So they postponed solving the problem until later. This is this arrow. They delayed the matter a bit and built a second increase into the price.
Now, longer-term market expectations for a 3.6 rate hike have dropped to expectations of around 2.4. So we lowered expectations a little bit because if you have one decline, you obviously go down to 2.6-2.7 in that range. We are now slightly below that level. OK. So, this is SE. This is a summary of economic forecasts.
Overall, Warsh is not part of this, but to me it is a signal of no concern about inflation or the labor market. This means that the unanimous decision to raise the rate was not a sign that they were losing control. No signs of them losing control. You may not like them or something. This is normal. I'm not saying you have to love the Fed.
I'm just saying that this whole rate hike was literally quote, "I have balls." That was exactly how it was . That's all. And they had to do it, because after all, at the last, you know, his first meeting, he talked about focusing on the numbers to the left of the decimal point. People are like, "This guy is crazy." Then in Jackson Hole he tried to turn it all around.
He called the forecast for an increase three times. Remember this. He used the word "promotion" three times. True, it was disguised as "I'm going hiking because the mountains are beautiful here." You saw my previous video about this. We don't need to repeat everything, but that was the forecast. This is essentially the same thing he told us when he spoke in Jackson Hole.
And that's exactly what he's doing here. He says he doesn't see financial conditions easing. He sees improvements in the economy and credit flows, capital spending, employment, consumption. Financial conditions can hardly be called restrictive. He, however, hints that they will mostly wait to make the next decision.
So we didn't get that " bearish" forecast that we'll definitely raise rates again. As usual, we did not receive a forecast. This is his style of work. I thought we would hear comments on the neutral rate, but he only spoke for 9 minutes, which was a bit surprising. Typically, the market expects more talk, and the reporters in the room were genuinely shocked.
It's like half of them weren't even ready to ask questions because they're like, "What? What? What? Are you finished yet? It was so short." Well, as it is. Typically, such a press conference would last about an hour or 55 minutes. Dude, he got through it and got out of there in about 29 minutes. Something else interesting, just a few small notes that I tweeted about.
He uses a notebook , a pocket notebook , to talk about AI and disinflation. No Dells, no iPads, you know, no MacBooks, just a pocket notebook. God, I have n't seen anything like this in a long time . And also, it's worth mentioning Grant Cardone, who said that the Fed will not raise rates, which, in turn, is doubtful.
OK. Now we need to look at the spread between 10- year and 2-year bonds. He collapsed like a rock. That's good. This is a positive point. It's called...well, it generally depends on how yields move in the coming days. But if it levels out, that's good. We want to see alignment. We want to move away from 0.5.
This would be a shock zone . That's when the economy begins to experience undue "black swan" risk. We want this figure to be lower. A bullish alignment would occur if 10-year and 2- year bonds held or fell below 5%. Now we are actually at the 5% level. We have virtually no change in the 10-year bond.
It's a bit strange that we're standing still with the 10-year bond, because the Fed has made it clear, "Hey, we're in charge here ." We are going to control inflation. It's a bit surprising that they didn't fall harder. So I don't think this is a pure " bullish" flattening of the curve , but it usually signals a rate cut, which is likely to happen in the coming days; This means that inflation will be brought under control and the market believes in our plan.
To me, this means that the market is still hesitant. Will you do it just once and stop ? Remember what Rabobank warned about this morning . And I think they're right. Rabobank warned today that the Federal Reserve may limit itself to one step: they will raise rates now and then call for patience. They will not raise the rate the week before the election and as a result will only do so once.
I actually agree with that . I think that's a positive signal, but the bond market is kind of saying, "I'm not sure if we like this?" Will this be enough to solve the problem? Market expectations are overstated, and we are only including one increase in our forecast for 2026. Personally, I expect one or two raises.
The market expects 3.6—in my opinion, that's too much. Good. What else did he say? He said that the underlying growth of our economy is stronger. That's why he changed his mind , because Nick T had him pinned against the wall. I thought it was pretty cool. Nick T "fried" him pretty good. Nick T asked, "Hey, dude, last fall you said the Fed was making a mistake by not lowering rates, and now you're raising them ." And I thought, "This is a turning point." Tough question, Nick T.
But to be fair , Powell responded politely: " Dude, look, the economy is a lot stronger." He also said that he considered the R-star, or Wixell rate , unimportant. That was a little strange. I agree. That was strange. No one expected this. This was unexpected. Every Fed chairman I've written about has talked about how important this neutral rate is.
And he's essentially saying, "No, we don't care about the R-star ." OK. So will you raise the stakes again or not? This lack of clear guidance creates uncertainty. He also mentioned geopolitics, that there is nowhere to hide from an oil shock . Many thought the Fed would simply ignore the oil shock, but no.
The Federal Reserve "leaked" it to us. We covered this. We talked about this in probably three different videos. The Fed, well, they didn't exactly "blew it up, " it's just that no one pays attention to this nonsense, but the Federal Reserve issued a document that was clearly intended to signal that the best thing to do, even during a supply shock, is to raise rates .
And the reason for this is to maintain inflationary expectations. We covered this. We opened that document. We showed how they say that the conventional wisdom about expectations during a supply shock is an outdated approach. This is no longer relevant. The Fed should raise rates. This is a paraphrase of what they said.
So, here we are. We got our promotion. Current expectations for an increase in October. So, just before the election, the odds are 53%—like a coin toss. I do n't think they 'll raise the stakes right before the election. I don't think Warsh would do that to Trump. I think Donald Trump will come out and say, “Well, I don’t like it, but we had to do it because of Iran.
We cannot allow them to have nuclear weapons." Tweeted about it too. We are preparing, however, for the fact that there is now almost a 30% probability of a rate increase on December 9th. So, this puts a small probability of a second increase in the price. That is, an increase in October and December.
I don't think that's likely unless the inflation data is really bad. What else did Warsh say? Okay, you're going to talk about it. I'll just make a quick note about the Reinvest terminal. So when you go to meetkevin.com , you can click on the Meet Kevin membership or the Reinvest terminal. If you join the Alpha membership, you will receive an Alpha report, and you will probably be able to write it off on your taxes .
You get trade alerts, buy alerts on dips, positioning, and long-term theses. This morning, in my opinion, was one of the best live broadcasts for course participants on forming long-term theses. So, you get these live broadcasts for participants every day when the market is open. You get all nine courses within this Alpha membership, pay once and get lifetime access.
If you join now and get lifetime access to alpha membership for a one-time payment, you will also get what we are building and releasing in November—the Reinvest terminal. You will get 6 months of use of it, which will probably cost around $125–150 per month. You will get this and over time the price will be around $200 per month.
So people who sign up early will be able to lock in their price, of course, subject to small inflation adjustments, which probably won't be significant if AI promotes disinflation. But anyway, it's very exciting, and it will be my intellectual product on stock and real estate valuation. Let's give it to regular people like you and me who don't want to pay $2,500 a month for something like a Bloomberg terminal, and it's going to be incredible.
So , this is launching in November. I'm very excited about this. The first version will be released in November. So, you can join this alpha membership at mekevin.com. What else did Waller say? Well, he said trends matter . That we cannot be dependent on individual data points. It was a move towards, well, data dependence.
We are not going to depend on individual data points. He is actually saying that he is trend-oriented. He looks at three- to six-month trends. He analyzes 12- month trends and sees that inflation is above 3% in too many categories. This is an interesting approach: it looks at a basket of what's happening in the components of the CPI or PCE, and then asks: how many of them, what percentage, are above 3%.
And in Jackson Hole, he told us that over 50% of them were above 3%. And this is too broad, we can't just pick individual components, there's too much spread above 3%. This is a risk factor. At the same time, he notes that unemployment claims correspond to full employment. He talks about job openings, weekly hours of work—all of these, weekly hours are increasing.
This was in the Empire report. We discussed this yesterday morning during the live broadcast. We said that they were reading this Empire report at the meeting, and it showed that the number of hours worked per week was increasing. We even pointed this out and said, " I bet the Fed will refer to this or at least read this." And they did even better.
They actually referred to it verbatim, saying, "Hey, the number of hours per week is going up." Okay, where did that come from? This is where it came from. Look here. Empire Production Report. That's why we study this data to give you this insight. Look at this line right here. The availability of supply continued to deteriorate.
Employment has grown at a steady pace, and the average workweek has lengthened significantly. The growth rates of resource prices and selling prices have accelerated from already high levels. This is critically important. This, this is so critically important. OK. Then we have this one, uh, at the end.
Yes. OK. So I wrote some notes for the report itself. I think this is generally so clearly predicted that we will now look at the trends over the next few months. I think they will be patient in October, and the markets will do their thing. September is terrible. The markets will behave as they please, probably until the election itself.
This is normal. I think this is a great opportunity to buy on a dip. It doesn't scare me. I would actually be more afraid if they introduced a period of stagflation without controlling inflation expectations, and the 5-year trend in inflation expectations started to take off. If I look at the 5-year breakeven point now , I don't know, but I expect we'll get something like a stick going down .
Let's take a look. I will open this sheet now. I could be wrong, but uh, let's see what we have. I'll just let you look at the chart. Okay, I mean, you heard me say it. I didn't look at it beforehand. Uh, I just opened this and will try to transfer it to another computer. See for yourself. See for yourself.
What Vors just did with five-year inflation expectations. That's exactly what he should have done . He took the situation into his own hands. He had enough courage . That's why the promo code is Mark or " Vors' courage." He really had the courage. Now, if we move on to the iPad, uh, we did n't really get a bingo.
Even though we had fulfilled so many points, he had the courage, we got a rate increase. A clear majority in favor of the increase is what we predicted. It was unanimous. We had "Trump Blames Iran." If Trump does blame Iran, we'll get bingo. Okay, this is a "wild card" because it will bring us bingo.
They asked about movements in the bond market. Yes, words mean little , talking is easy. He didn't talk long enough to get to that point . We are result-oriented. I could probably take credit for it , but it wouldn't matter. The consumer is resilient—that was one of the first things he said. There is complete consensus that inflation is the top priority.
We got it. We believe this can be controlled. We got it. They asked about Trump—and he evaded the answer. That's literally exactly what he did. He was asked about Trump, and he completely avoided answering. It implies that we have the situation under control , or says that we will cope with inflation.
I did both . Supply problems cannot be influenced . We got it. AI disinflation received an honorable mention. Got it. We didn't receive anything about housing. We haven't heard any talk about us being relatively close to a neutral rate. That would make the market go up, man. He only mentioned his target groups once.
He didn't mention that they did n't have to fight within the family. I thought he would say that. Uh, no predictions for the future. We got it. Inflation expectations are stable . We got it. We also just saw this on the chart. And, uh, it will curb inflation. He will radiate confidence, arrogance, and dedication.
Yes, I did it. The labor market is stable and strengthening. Yes, we got it. So, something was missed, you know, in inconvenient places. Donald Trump can still save us. Okay, that's a strange thing to end on. It's almost like a cliffhanger that I accidentally left out when we were talking about Sidney Sweeney, but that's not the main purpose of this video.
We probably should have made Sweeney a promo code. Instead, we have “Worious Bowls,” which, in retrospect, doesn’t come together as well as it should have. So, with that in mind , I only have one thing left to say. Oh my god, your poor Kevin just lost a bunch of money. Oh, it's nothing. I'm with you . .
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