저자: DividendTalks채널진행자 · 외국인
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팔란티어는 최근 1년간 주가가 154% 상승해 52주 신고가 부근(약 40달러)이며, 매출 27% 성장, 상업 매출 98%·계약가치 152% 증가, 7분기 연속 GAAP 흑자, 영업이익률 상승(25%→37%)을 근거로 강한 성장을 제시한다. 다만 선행 PER이 매우 높고 내부자 매도(약 11억 달러)가 많다. DCF 모델 적정가는 약 41달러로 거의 적정가 수준이며, 가치투자 기준 매수 적정가는 약 35~37달러로 제시됐다. 월가 목표가는 45달러이며 애널리스트 3곳 모두 Hold 의견이다.
다듬은 글
last week the S SMP 500 was very mixed right across the board but one of the biggest winners was palente up around 9% and this company now trades at $40 when we take a look at its performance it is up 154% just over the last 12 months and does currently trade right there at its 52e high at $40 now we do note a triple hold rating right across the board but is this a company that can continue its enormous growth and be one of those that we can see as a significant multibagger over the next few years well when we take a look at an article this is from May this year so quite some time ago it talks about how Palante could be a 1 trillion stock bear in mind when this article came out the market cap of this company was sitting at 50 billion right now as we can see this company does have a market cap of 90 billion so it has been on a very very strong run just over the last few months and as we can clearly see that has continued over the last year as well so let's take a look at how they've done in terms of their latest business update understand what is driving this growth in the share price and in terms of just some of the key highlights that we will discuss we can see their revenue is up 27% on a year-on-year perspective up around 7% on a quarter by quarter basis and something that is very impressive that we hear constantly in the news that palente is gaining lots of momentum with some significant deals and for some real significant value now we can touch upon some of this today and as we mentioned their deals are something that is very attractive about this company just in the more recent quarter they signed a 5-year deal and that is worth 480 million and that isn't just the first one there are also some significant contracts they have been getting in the more recent period in terms of looking it as an overview as we can see some very big things to highlight here in terms of their commercial deals well that is up 98 % on a year-on-year perspective and we can see in terms of the actual value which is probably a better gauge of how successful this company has become Plus 152% on a year onye now there is a lot of information to dissect within essentially their slid but none other is more important that they are now quite consistently turning Gap positive as we can see this is now for the seventh consecutive quarter and this is not just reflected on their bottom line but also very importantly in terms of their operating income this is the sixth quarter and something that we will touch upon shortly is that their margin is increasing and at a fairly respectable rate remember with companies that we invest in we want them to increase both Topline as well as their margins and as we already talked about their revenue growth is looking very respectable commercial Revenue up 33% from the same quarter last year and we can see here just the US commercial aspect up 55% no surprises as we've already said contracts do come very quick for this company company and that just shows how impressive paler is becoming now in terms of government revenue well up 23% from the same quarter in 2023 in terms of us pafic not too far off there around 24% in terms of total revenue growth up 27% and they do expect this to continue no surprises with all of these contracts that they are gaining and one thing that we always want to discuss on this channel as we've mentioned is operating efficiency we do notice their margins have been increasing over the long term in fact from the same quarter in 2023 their operating margin was at 25% this quarter 37% and if this continues to climb this will make them incredibly attractive one thing that we haven't mentioned though for those that do value this company on a forward PE perspective it does look very high and maybe you can start to understand why it does trade at a very high rate whether or not you agree with that forward P that is something we can continue to discuss custom count looking very good not just up 83% year- on-year but as we said earlier the actual numerical understanding of these contracts is up triple digits so very impressive and in terms of the specifics of the deals 27 of the 96 deals that they did close were at least worth $10 million so very attractive to shareholders not only are the deals increasing in terms of the numbers but also the value of them are also moving in the right direction and finally what's really important to understand they are continuing to estimate growth moving forwards at a very very desirable rate we can in fact see they believe us commercial Revenue will be around a 47% growth rate for full year 2024 and as we will come to look at the discounted cash flow model they believe the free cash flow for full year 2024 will sit around the 800 to1 billion Mark now we can go back to this essentially at the very beginning just to highlight that in terms of the forward PE it does trade AT3 we will take a look at this in terms of the respective earnings moving forwards and how this is expected to come down into the double digigit region now what we always want to take a look at on this channel are the underlying metrics first one free cash flow what we like is that whilst it has been negative which isn't what we want to see it has turned positive and we have 3 years of positive free cash flow we also note over the next 12 months this is anticipated to increase from 32 cents to 38 per share sales growth also looking very good double digit every single year yes it has been decreasing from the highs of 2020 but as we can see on the trading 12 month at 21% it goes to show us and from what we have just looked from their latest investor presentation they are expecting that Top Line to start accelerating in terms of a numerical format as well 600 million reported in 2018 2.23 billion in 2023 and whilst we don't like to see this in companies in terms of shares outstanding increasing this is effectively showing us that they have been diluting your position as a shareholder due to the increase and issuance of equity Now understand you probably don't care if you are a more recent shareholder and you have been seeing some very nice growth in terms of the share price but just something to consider if they've done it in the past it may be something that they are expecting to continue to perform roic our favorite metric 10% or more give us Faith management are able to effectively allocate their Capital 3% in 2023 now not great positive to note here it has been improving every single year over the last few years 7% on a trading 12 month that does give me confidence that moving forwards this number will improve as we have seen with all of the other metrics their bottom line net income their operating income their margins all moving in the right direction operating margin and something that we actually didn't mention when we just looked at the roic they haven't been turning a profit for that number of years so something we want to point out is it has just turned positive on the bottom line as we saw from one of their investor slides 5% in 23 12% over the last 12 months this is pretty much the minimum we want to see and as we just heard they are expecting this margin to increase over the next few quarters and we have seen that increase over the last few free cash flow margin also looking very strong over the last three years 34% in 23 30% on a trading 12mth basis and again if you do believe they can keep up this consistency then there are no reasons why penter shouldn't become a very strong company whether or not it hits that one trillion Mark is something to bear in mind net debt to ebit Dart earnings before interest tax depreciation ammortization this is the number of years it would take them to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand it wouldn't even take them one day over the last 4 years wouldn't even take them one day over the next four months so we can see very very strong balance sheet no worries for this part of the analysis now one thing that we do have to highlight that they have come under the spotlight recently is in terms of Insider selling and what we know the ownership pretty high we have to admit around 133% in comparison to what we have seen on this channel around 1.1 billion worth of sales by insiders over the last 12 months were probably the highest we have actually seen on this channel and we do note in the more recent quarter Q3 649 Million worth of sales now for transparency who those insiders are we can in fact see the director Peter Hill did sell on the 30th of September so the latest tranch around 4 million worth of shares and in fact just a few days prior around another 4 million now this would have Ned him just for that period around $300 million remember Insider selling isn't a bearish signal ultimately Insider sell for many reasons personal or financial and the interesting thing to note is that right now the shares are up around 10% higher than what he did sell so make of that information as you will but for transparency we just want to show the sells as well as idity the buys that is what we want to highlight on this channel now when we look at it in terms of an Institutional aspect 46% ownership 875 Million worth of sales over the last 12 months with a lot more buying during the same time period And when we look over the more recent quarter Q3 we see 21 million buys with 733,000 worth of sales and in the previous quarter we see a little bit more buying and selling something we see a common theme of over the last four quarters so we do notice here institutions do like paler they are buying more shares than they are selling now before we continue we want to let you know we do release a free Weekly News Eda every single Monday and what we discuss is what's happened in the market over the last few days and some undervalued dividend stocks in the more recent article we talked about three stocks we are buying in October and you can click below sign up read straight away and get that instant access on top of that you will be able to get a spreadsheet of 36 undervalue dividend stocks for the month of October where we also look at those that sit within our own portfolio and we will also now have access to 22 undervalued dividend stocks with the most upside according to Wall Street so do check it out click below sign up and you can read straight away now just to show you when we do look at their revenue as we mentioned from a graphical perspective it has looked very strong over the last few years going from around 600 million in 2018 to 2.2 billion in 2023 but we really want to highlight here the story of the bottom line net income and as we can see from a graphical perspective December 2023 was the first full year where they reported a net profit and as we can see from the numbers here very inconsistent nice to see December 2023 and on a trading 12mth basis profitability and as we've looked this is something they do expect to maintain moving forwards then we look at the balance sheet just want to show show you that net debt to ebit DAR reflection in these numbers total cash which has been increasing over the longer term now sits at around 4 billion in the latest quality report and when we do compare that to their total debt numerically and directionally we can see it's gone from0 in 2018 to 259 million so if they really wanted to they could pay it all off within a day then we want to look at their expectations moving forwards and we can see their EPS over the next four quarters are expected to be an increase of a double digit move movement and prior to that we see the previous four quarters they've either been inline or beaten management targets so a nice 100% track record if they do hit their December 2025 Target the forward P will come down to around 93 in terms of looking at some gradings and underlining metrics the first one is the valuation of an F absolutely no surprises here not just on the forward PE where we do note the sect toine is significantly lower but pretty much any other valuation metric you use it will tell you paler is trading at such a significant premium to the overall sector now whether or not you do believe it deserves a premium and whether or not you believe it deserves this much of a premium is the question we need to ask ourselves as investors although we do understand why it does trade at a premium just look at the growth for example where they get an A 21% versus the sector median of 2.99 moving forwards they still anticipate strong double digit growth which is still well ahead of the sector medium and in terms of the earnings per share moving forwards they're anticipating 24% year onye over the next 5 years whereas we can clearly see here the sector median around 15% now that also continues into their profitability where they do have that a minus this as we can see is shown in the numbers 81% gross profit margin versus 50% sector median bottom line 16% versus 3.7 and we also note their cash from operations are very high at 708 million significantly higher than the 98 million from the sector overall now look as part of a conclusion we do note that all three analysts give this a hold that is Seeking Alpha Wall Street and Quant we have already discussed that valuation metric of F and nice to see a growth and profitability in the a region now finally before we do move into the valuation model one thing that we do want to flag when we do compare it to others in the application software industry as we can see some very big names of a fairly similar size paler this year has performed very very well up 154% the others whil they have been positive nowhere near this company so let's jump into the valuation model right now as always if you do enjoy the content value is being provided smash that like button hit that subscribe and Bell button so you are continuing notified of these videos as they drop now the DCF model we have around $41 so let's go through and understand where we got this from we have the free cash flow over the last few years average growth negative it has been skewed from negative to positive over a number of years and we've gone for a 30% growth rate moving forwards we have a low medium and high and with the 30% we have the discount rate of 8% which gives us the present value of future free cash flows and terminal value we add together with the cash subtract total debt get to the equ value divided by the shares outstanding and as we can see here pretty much not far off we do get the undervaluation signal that is fairly trivial as we can see 2% now remember these numbers are fairly subjective so you can grab a copy of this model by clicking on the pin comment below low running through your own numbers whether it's for paler or any others also for full transparency we just want to show you at the 25% rate we do believe the intrinsic value of $31 that is downside of 22% and at the 35 percentage point we can see intrinsically $54 with 34% upside so in terms of the 30% which we have got as a medium today taking it through we always like to do a margin of safety on this channel at the 10% point which we use and execute if it meets our three golden criteria wide Mo strong financial metrics and good forward-looking data now if you believe that in today's episode is a buy $37 which ultimately means in today's episode we see this company right now trading at its intrinsic price for those that just want to see well 15% MOS a buy at $35 at 20% around 33 and at 25 around 31 now remember this is one that we did discuss when it was around the $20 Mark and now it is pretty much double that so whether or not you do believe this is a strong company to buy for the future we are interested to hear your thoughts below we also noticed that Wall Street have upgraded their price Target to $45 where they see 13% upside so it really depends on whether or not you believe this can continue to be a multibagger over the next 5 to 10 years or whatever your time Horizon is now for those that do believe it can be a 1 trillion stock what we notice here is that for it to hit the 1 trillion Mark the share price would be around $440 now whether or not you do believe the growth can continue we've seen very impressive numbers their contracts seem to increase on a weekly basis margins are becoming stronger they are now looking very consistently in terms of a gap profit both on the operating income as well as the bottom line but there are questions whether or not the valuation for this company in this moment in time is a little bit too high as always though as we said give us your thoughts below is this one you are looking to buy maybe one you're looking to sell or for time being like Seeking Alpha like Wall Street and Quant you are looking to hold if you enjoy today's episode smash that like button hit that subscribe and Bell button don't forget to sign up to the free Weekly Newsletter which we are dropping tomorrow morning and as always come and join us in the patreon where we do discuss our weekly buys and sells as always have a great day and we'll see you all on the next one
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