저자: DividendTalks진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
나이키(NKE)는 최근 실적이 매출 -10%, 순이익 -28%로 부진하고 주가는 52주 저점 부근(약 -25% YTD)이다. 채널 분석 모델은 내재가치 약 $101, 할인 여유를 보며 배당 안전성(최고 점수)과 저평가 신호(배당수익률·Forward PE 기준)를 근거로 든다. 다만 성장률 역성장, 내부자 매도, 기관 매도 전환 등 리스크도 함께 언급한다.
다듬은 글
overall yesterday the majority of the stocks in the S&P 500 were down and we want to focus on a company that has reported their earnings this week and that is night aftermarket close on Tuesday and this is a company that as we can see is down 25% year-to date currently trades towards its 52e low and we also noticed two buy ratings from seeking alha and Wall Street although we can see Quant give this a hold so is this one we really need to consider consider it has been hammered significantly is there an overreaction and what value do we believe this company should be a no-brainer bu now first thing to note with their earnings one thing that was very interesting for shareholders was that they said they will be withdrawing their four-year guidance and on top of that they will be postponing their investor day which the anticipation was to see this next month now in terms of the actual earnings how they performed well it was fairly mixed they actually beat on the earnings per share as we can see here 70 cents versus the expectation of 52 so a very good beat Revenue as well coming in Mar than Market anticipation 11.59 versus 11.65 however the disappointing thing to note was here that in fact their reported net income for the quarter was around 1 billion and as we can see if we are looking at the same quarter last year that was around 1.45 one positive thing to note they did grow their gross margin although minimally by 1.2 percentage points to around 45.4% but what we really want to highlight with this company when we do take a look at their numbers they have been moving in the Ron Direction their revenue from this latest quarter of 11.6 billion is down around 10% from the same quarter last year their gross margins as we said they are up although very very trivially and we also note the major disappointing factor is their bottom line net income is down significantly 28% from the same quarter last year we also note that is reflected in the earnings per share where when you do take a look on a basic as well as a diluted per share basis it is down 26% so a lot to consider with this company do you believe that the brand is starting to die or is this purely just a blip in the company's fortunes moving forwards and do we expect them to continue to be the PowerHouse brand that we know them to be now very interesting to note as well less financial information but Bill Amman in the latest quarter when we did take a look at his portfolio we noticed he had a new Buy in there which was NK in fact it took up around 2.2% of his overall portfolio so not a massive purchase and actually quite unlike him when we do take a look at some of the companies the industries he's invested in this isn't his typical purchase so is it one that in actual fact he sees as very undervalued and decided to get his toes a bit wet and purchase a little bit into his portfolio now let's get back to the main point which is the company itself as we said down 24% year to date over the last 10 years however it is up 88% and we do get quite a bad downward trend from the last 3 years November 2021 it was pretty much at all-time highs $178 right now though it is trading less than half that price at 8210 it does have a high forward P at 29.63 we're going to shortly compare that to the average over the last 5 years and a forward yield of 1.8% now let's dive into to some of the financial metrics nice to see 99 very safe score in the dividend safety highest score obtainable and they also gave a very respectable increase of 8.8% in November last year to the dividend we should hear over the next few weeks what that increase will be for this year now essentially this score was reaffirmed and what this ultimately means is that a dividend cut is highly unlikely now key metrics this from the recession or Great Recession in fact 0709 they increased the dividend they had negative 7% sales above the average for the S&P at -12 and they also outperform the S&P -36 as we can see S&P itself 55 we do typically talk about this company being a dividend growth stock given the fact over the last five and the last 20 years they have been increasing these dividends at a double digit rate and we also knowe 22 years of consecutive increases to the dividend there's 3 years away from becoming a dividend Aristocrat and they have also been paying a dividend for the last 40 years without to reduction now taking a look at this new valuation model where we do compare the forward p over the last 20 years when we do zoom in over the last years as we can see the blue expected fair value tunnel this pretty much tells us for the majority of the last 12 months this company has been trading severely in under valuation but as always we do run it through our own valuation model shortly as well first thing to note dividend yield theory states a company is undervalued when the current yield sits above the 5year average massive undervaluation signal here 1.8 above the 5year 1.07 and whil we do believe the forward PE does sit high for this company at 28.5 given the fact it is growing at a very minimal rate nonetheless it is lower than the 5year rolling of 31.9 so that is a double undervaluation signal although we do know the consumer discretionary sector as a whole does sit significantly lower at 14 remember though we're not looking at any one model in isolation now free cash flow payout we want below 60% give us faith mandrin can offer double digit increases we love to see pretty much below that every single year 33 in 2024 52 over the next 12 months so in November this year we do anticipate a nice at a bare minimum High single digit increase to the dividend then we move on to the free cash flow per share where we want to see consistent increases over the long term it's pretty much doubled from 2015 to 2024 so that is nice although do not the inconsistency on a year-on-year basis we do have to point out and really no surprise is the free cash flow is anticipated to drop over the next 12 months to around 284 per share now in terms of sales growth 3 to 4% at the bare minimum just to keep up and line with inflation ideally towards the upper 7% level now this is what we mean it hasn't grown in the last year full annual accounts over the last 12 months -3% so something just to bear in mind ultimately if you are investing in this company or considering it then you do believe that they will come back to the ways that we have seen over the last 10 years and if you want zoom out look at it from a numerical perspective though they have grown their top line from 31 billion in 2015 to 51.4 in 2024 on top of that returning some excess cash to shareholder Pockets to those share BuyBacks very inconsistent in fact we do note some years for example in covid where they did Issue Equity so dilute your position but net effect is quite nice as we always say a little bit of an added bonus roic one of my favorite and most important metrics 10% or more which is what we get on a very consistent basis last four years in the low to mid-20s Great sign to see 22% as well on a trading 12-month basis again does give us that faith that operating margin in a dream case scenario we want to see efficiencies where it increases year on-ear pretty much as we want to see with Revenue however we do note it does straddle around that 12% point you could argue with more and more competitors coming into this space they are having to drop those margins further and further and we can see the decreases from from 2021 free cash flow though looking good nonetheless above 5% pretty much every year 133% in 2024 now this brings us on to the final metric for this part of the analysis the net debt ebits are referring to the earnings before interest tax appreciation ammortization now below three is what we want to see and that is what we get 0.05 in 2024 that is very strong so signals to us they have a very strong balance sheet no surprises to the dividend safety as this model does correlate to that and even with the marginal increase over the next 12 months absolutely no worries and we will take a look at that in further detail when we analyze the balance sheet weekly article we drop one every single Monday where we talk about what's happened in the market in fact in the more recent one we talk about three stocks we're looking to buy this month and as always we do try and cover some stocks that we do believe deserve some of your attention on top of that you will be able to grab a copy of our 30 six undervalued stocks for the month of October we run through some information on each one that is very vital to understand and discuss those that sit within our own portfolio and for this month as well you can grab 22 undervalued dividend stocks that have the largest upside and this is according to Wall Street so go ahead click below sign up and read straight away we also like to look at insiders and institutions so starting off with Insider ownership 05% and we do notice around 39 Million worth of sales by these Insiders over the last year very trivial buying in comparison of 226,000 and we do note in the more recent quarter no buys no sells in fact over quarter 3 and quarter 2 we see some significant selling with some very marginal Buys in quarter 2 when we want to see who these individuals are for that transparency we can in fact see that the chairman on the 14th of August and on the 18th of July sold quite a hefty number of shares 110,000 in one tranch 52487 in another netting him around 12 million now remember this isn't necessarily a bearish signal we just want to highlight this information in today's episode and then we do these same pretty much analysis for institutions 64% ownership 9.5 billion worth of sales over the last year with some more buying over the same time period so they are buying more however we do want to point out in the more recent quarter they are doing the opposite institutions are selling more and it's key to understand that always do your own due diligence never rely on insiders or institutions so let's get into some analysis in terms of the income statement balance sheet first one income statement now we've already looked at their Topline Revenue but again just to highlight from a graphical perspective they have been increasing over the longer term although we do know over the more recent years it has started to stagnate and we can in fact see 51.2 billion in 23 51.4 in 2024 now we want to understand in this part of the analysis what does the bottomline net income reflect to us what story does it tell us and we get a little bit of inconsistency not something we really want to see we would expect with increasing revenues the bottom line net income to increase as well and whilst it has done from 2015's 3.3 billion to 5.7 in 2024 we can see very very inconsistent on a year-on-year basis so something just to bear in mind perhaps use this when we do come to a margin of safety later on now band cheet quick health check total cash versus total debt it has increased over the longer term again fairly inconsistent nearly doubled from 6 billion in 2015 to 10.3 in the latest quarter and when we do compare that numerically and directionally to their total debth we can see that has also increased 1.3 billion in 2015 to around 12 in that latest quarterly report now look their debt has been increasing but so has their cash and when we did look at the net debt to Evar it did look to be very healthy but again just something to keep an eye on with debt we do want them to either pay it down or there has to be reasons which are very valid for increasing in nature now then we want to look at their earnings per share and first thing we want to point out over the next three quarters they are anticipating negative growth to the earnings per share by double digits you'd have to wait till quarter 1 of 2026 before seeing the reversal positive 18.33% and what we do quite like is that over the last four quarters they have beaten fairly substantially the earnings per share also on a more positive note they are expecting grow to the EPS in 2026 which will ultimately bring down that very high forward to around 24.8 now in terms of some gradings first we're going to start off with the valuation now no surprises they do get a d main reason for this their PE on a non-gaap basis is higher than the sector median we already discussed this earlier pretty much you are paying a 75% premium for this company in comparison sometimes you can justify that companies do deserve a premium whether or not though that is a question you need to ask yourself for this company and something we see pretty much whichever valuation method you are using in today's episode then when we take a look at their growth they get a d which isn't really great to see especially given their valuation is higher than the sector year-on-year growth negative -3% when the sector itself even though it is low is still positive at 2% when we look on a forward basis pretty much flat as we can see here sector median 3.5% and one more disappointing feature is that whilst the earnings per share does look okay at 88.2% expected over the next 3 to 5 years the sector which does trade at a much lower valuation is higher at 10.7 again just things to consider profitability however does look good with an A+ gross profit margins 45% better than the sector median 37 and the bottom line 10.6 better than the sector median at 4.5 we also very much like their cash from operations 7.4 billion with the sector overall 278 million now quick conclusion for this part of the analysis a double buy rating from seeking Alfred and Wall Street hold from Quant devaluation degrowth A+ on profitability now final thing before we jump into the valuation let's see how the industry as a whole has compared we have deca's outdoor o holding Sketchers Crocs Steve Madden just to compare whether or not there's an issue with this company or in fact it is the industry overall so Total return including dividends we do notice that this company is the only one that has been negative in fact the others have had some very very strong performances and when we look over the last 5 years we can see the only one with negative returns so this is an issue isolated with this company when we zoom out over the last 10 years though we do see it in the middle so not really great performance over the last year five years over the last 10 not the greatest either but remember past performance isn't a determination of the future so just something to bear in mind whilst it hasn't been great 10 years maybe this could be a value turnaround play that could benefit moving forwards now let's jump into our di so our intrinsic value of $11 how we got this well we ran it through three models the first one the multiples valuation model companies in a similar sector and size the average P of them multiplied by the EPS of Nik and we can see pretty much an overvaluation although not too far off the market value but as always we don't look at any of these models in isolation we then have the dividend discount model they do increase their dividend at a very respectable rate we want to be conservative today though 6.25 moving forwards and we do get a marginal undervaluation signal we then move on to the DCF model free cash flow year on-ear average growth very high at 36% we've gone pretty low lower than analyst expectation at 9% which is also lower than the last 2 years using the discount rate we then X an the valuation score which is pretty strong so in terms of the intrinsic value it's just the average of these three models today coming at $101 and as alway to run your own numbers through whether it's for NK or any others so margin of safety we always use one on this channel 10% e look if you believe that will a buy up to $91 then we keep going till it's near the current trading price now it's not at the 20% level just yet at the $81 Mark today it's sitting somewhere between 15 to 20% and we do knowe Wall Street with that buyer rating earlier their price Target a little bit lower than our intrinsic value they have $94 where they see upside of 133% now you have to ask yourselves whether or not as we mentioned earlier this is a blip in the middle of their journey and you do see them continuing to be the PowerHouse that they are or maybe you believe they are starting to lose market share to other competitors and they will ultimately move away from the big name they have had in households however as always do let us know your thoughts below if you're buying selling or maybe this is one you are just looking to hold if you enjoyed today's episode value was we're dropping the next one on Monday morning and as always come and see
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