저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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2021년 시장 전망 인터뷰 결론: 2020년 지수 15% 상승은 예상 밖이었고, 2021년 이익 성장은 일회성 손실 소멸로 약 30% 전망이며 시장에서 빠지는 것이 가장 큰 리스크라고 강조. 2020년 교훈: 시장 타이밍은 불가능하며 좋은 종목을 사서 보유하는 것이 답이라고 주장. 코로나 충격으로 30~40% 폭락 후 신고가까지 회복한 점을 근거로 듦. 이익 전망: 2021~22년 Nifty EPS 약 660(약 30% 성장) 컨센서스 언급. 2020년 은행 대손, 통신사 일회성 손실이 빠지면 성장 가능하다고 봄. 다만 정부 지출과 인프라 집행이 관건. 2021년 최대 리스크: 시장 불참이 가장 큰 리스크라고 주장. 고객들이 매도 중이라는 점을 언급하며 V자 반등 가능성 제시. 인프라: 나그라주나 건설 수주 사례를 들며 예산 뒷받침과 법원 집행 지연이 리스크라고 지적. 저금리·유동성 환경에서 인도 인프라가 큰 기회라고 평가. 농촌 소비: 좋은 몬순 2년과 저금리, 정부 보조금으로 농촌 소비가 견조하며 2분기~3분기 도시 수요 회복과 맞물릴 것으로 봄. 농기계·저가 오토바이·비료 등 수혜 언급. 언락 트레이드: 코로나로 일시 손실 본 우량 기업은 비용 절감 후 반등 가능. 대기업 중심 M&A·점유율 확대 흐름을 언급. 금융주는 대출 스트레스 테스트를 통과한 우량 대출기관 위주로 보유 권장, 소형 은행은 투기적 모멘텀일 뿐이라고 경계. 중소형주: 외국인은 대형주를 순매수, 국내 기관은 순매도해 자금이 중소형으로 이동 중. 이 흐름은 경기 회복이 뚜렷해질 때까지 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 결론적으로 시장 cap과 관계없이 품질 좋은 성장주로 멀티캡 포트폴리오 구성 권고.
다듬은 글
welcome back uh it's Outlook 2021 time and we are getting you the best Minds from the market uh veterans to tell you what can be the big themes and what are the big learnings from a rather difficult and uh uh extremes that we saw in 2020 joining us now is ramd Agarwal chairman of mual oswal financial services uh good morning ramdev thank you very much indeed have a superb 20 21 may be grand and glorious for you uh and for starters what are the big learnings from 2020 uh very good morning L and uh let me wish all the viewers of CNBC tv18 uh Grand year in 2021 so I think we had very I would say actually we had wonderful year in 2020 which is very unusual given the pandemic situation but uh we had wonderful year and uh a lot of surprises I would say which is the nature of the market it surprises you uh like I would have not thought in December of uh January 1st of 2020 that uh we will have 15% uh market performance given the covid kind of a situation and yet we had 15% uh index performance in last one year so uh I think one of thing which I which I was always practicing say and uh I always believe was that nobody can time the market and at least I can't so that Pro to be absolutely what on do so buy right sit right whatever you like whatever you understand that's the way to go in equity markets not only in India all over the world so we had wonderful uh time of seeing markets collapsing by 30 35% 40% and all the way come back and not only come back but uh complete new high so I mean one year you learn so much absolutely well ramdev you know one of the lessons we learned in the previous six years is that every time analysts start with a high um EPS growth number and by the end of the year you trim it down in 2020 it was the opposite people uh have actually upgraded their earnings after a long Gap now the number I did a poll and I got for uh you know earnings for fi 2122 is a solid 30% I mean people are approximately 500 rupees this year's Nifty EPS next year the average I've got is 660 which is like some 30% uh growth you think that uh this time around it can be different we will do that kind of an earnings growth uh earnings growth will come because this number what you talking about 30 35% growth is made up of two three very large unusual items which were there in 2020 uh one is is of course this all the banking losses losses because of covid poisons that will not be there hopefully and uh second is the Telecom losses uh which you know the air TS of the world they booked in last year so that will also not be there so because of all this 2122 could be a very good year and in any case for last I think four or five years we stuck at about uh this 450 to 4 500 kind of a situation so it's a long word for a takeoff a lot depends on how government's uh you know effort is postco the buildup of the nation and uh the budget and uh the spending in the economy to uh to come back that will be very important but yes I agree uh the uh it is very exciting to see what is in store for 2122 okay Mr Agarwal good morning this is Sonia here wishing you and your team a very happy healthy and safe 2021 um hope this year is better for all of us in every way uh I wanted to understand from you according to you what are the biggest risks that lie ahead for investors in 2021 uh Sonia very good morning you know uh the risks are if it is known then it is not the risk you imagine last year when no nobody said on the TV or anywhere that uh uh virus will be the biggest risk so if you ask me the biggest risk is not being in the market right now not being participating in the market that would be the biggest risk of uh uh 2021 because there a lot of fear around I can see at least among our clients and our friends there's a lot of skepticism and they are selling out of the market I don't know whether they I mean uh uh it is very tough to say who's right or who's wrong but I think the biggest risk in the equity markets is not participating right because we have seen the worst of the economic or health disaster and yet we have done 15% so 2021 hopefully will not repeat the 20 and I think we should have at least 15% as good a year as 2020 on the whole and probably it could be a reverse V kind of a shot I mean like uh 2020 was you know the shot was the V we went down and then when we came up and in 20121 it be just a reverse we so that's the risk of not participating on this exciting okay you know even as you were speak you are speaking uh ramdev uh nagarjuna construction is announcing NCC that they have won 8,980 CR of orders in the month of December alone that's solid y 9,000 CR orders in a month uh for NCC do you think this can be one of the themes not NCC I mean I mean uh construction companies like say L&T types it also depends uh uh laa in terms of execution in the sense that you have the huge order books but if it is not supported by the budgetary allocation or whatever is the source of funding uh if that is not supported or if the Supreme Court of somebody comes on on the way of execution of the project then lot of these good plans remain in paper only and that uh I'm not saying something which is nothing anything new but that has been the history of Indian large projects I hope the courts will also be mindful of pandemic situation and the unique opportunity India has in terms of building its infrastructure all over the country so I think it's a very unique opportunity world is a watch with liquidity cost of liquidity is zero in fact liquidity is looking for some kind of field and Indian infrastructure for local investors as well as Global investor it is one of the biggest opportunity uh to pump money and build this country and the infrastructure of this country okay uh so you know the uh the team and MOA loal has always been very bullish on the whole rural play and it's not just um some of the fmcg names but even the auto names as we speak some of these names like escorts are doing really well reporting cracker numbers in in the month of December uh do you think there's still lot more to go are are we at the start of some sort of an upcycle in some of these rural plays yeah I mean uh see one of the thing is that we had we had had bumper monsoon in last 2 years years and uh we are we are we are benefiting from the current years good Monsoon and moal levels and second is the low interest rates across High liquidity and general rural Prosperity because of various prime minister's initiative to pump subsidies and uh uh supports to various segments of farmers I think there is lot of prosperity uh in rural India and they have also not suffered from covid so uh so I think the confidence in the rural economy is very high and hence rural Prosperity is there so all kinds of cheap you know entry-level bikes or tractors and fertilizers prop protection so all sorts of things are doing well uh and the moment it is supported by the their bigger brother Urban India which should happen in the second quarter or third quarter of this year I think we should see synchronized uh what you call pick up in the demand for all the products which are actually rural Centric okay uh well ramd will you pick up any of the unlock trades specialty restaurants uh and now of course even jubilant has bought barbecue Nation 10% uh I mean any of them Airlines hotels any of them yeah so some of the industries had a particularly bad fortune or Misfortune in pendic that doesn't prove any any business a bad business just because the businesses are closed for 12 months or 18 months because of Misfortune I don't think those businesses are to be termed as a bad businesses so I think there's actually a great opportunity in looking at some of these great businesses franchises which have suffered uh what because some kind of a loss of output or sales for 3 four months I think they will make a huge comeback because uh what what it would do is that setback has really allowed them to cut the cost in various uh various ways and when the demand comes back they will they'll be lean and much more ready to grab and another thing which has happened in this pandemic is that there's a lot of consolidation it's almost like a k-shape kind of recovery where one3 or one3 of 50% of the people uh smaller outfits have not done well or they are finding it difficult to recover whereas the big ones well Consolidated prepared guys they are able to grab market shares so you will have a much more vigorous recovery in the successful companies though they were Ed by pandemic so yes I think some of the companies will definitely pick up you know the other day your colleague gam goam dugar made a very interesting point when I asked him what will be your unlocked trades he said financials actually because they are you know so much economy dependent now I we were just running your portfolio you you have all the HDFC uh guys in your uh portfolio will you stick with this variety of the hdfc's and the kotx or do you think it's time to go down the midap cap Banks small cap Banks small Finance Banks yeah so I think as far as my uh uh my recommendation would be that lenders are the most uh vulnerable in these kind of situations I mean countries like India I mean they're impacted by various things apart from pandemic you know the global forces uh weather and whole lot of things so we have to we have to uh back the companies which have very good lending track record and the stress test the mother of all the stress test was the covid period like last year was the worst uh most stringent uh test for lenders so those who survived and those who actually came out clean and stronger I think those are the ones where we should back in I can buy a very bad I can buy a second rate steel or cement company but not a second rate lender so one has to be very careful particularly as an investment I mean as a trade as a momentum trade I think uh Rising tide will lift all the boats so I'm sure the small Bank PSU Banks uh even not so well uh private sector Banks everything will go up uh in this environment but if you really want to invest and have a peaceful uh evening I think it is important to buy names okay I think that's the buzz word right have a peaceful evening or peaceful night sleep with your Investments uh after all that we've been through so you know there are so many new investors who made fresh demat accounts during this lockdown period and we keep getting requests as to what they should be doing in 2021 in 2020 if you had invested in midcaps and small cap funds you would have made the most amount of money do you see that same Trend continue in 2021 would you prefer um uh midcap small cap funds compared to large caps or do you think the trend will change I don't know about the trend Trend will trend is going to be your friend but uh uh what I'm saying is that uh uh the FIS are clear preference for the large caps because they want to deploy a lot of money very quickly and hence they have been buying all the large gaps and clearly the diis or domestic investors they have been net Sellers and that money is clearly rolling into mid and small caps so clearly that's a trade on and uh most likely this trade is going to continue at least for some more time till economic recovery is very clearly visible when when economic recovery comes back what will happen is that even the domestics will want to buy the large caps at that point of time I think if both the segments want to buy large caps there will be a complete flare up in the large gap again so I think what is the message is that I would buy a quality growth companies irrespective of whether they are small cap midcap or large cap and build a portfolio of kind of a multicap so uh and because these are these are changing what you call uh what you call that it's a wind which is changing directions every every month every quarter so what is important is that you should be well placed uh let the funder decide where asally the next next spot where the wind is going to change and hence multicap would be the best kind of a bet no I agree with you I always prefer giving the fund manager full Freedom so multicap uh is always advisable uh ramd it's a pleasure having you with us as always thank you very much for joining us on the first day of the New Year and may you have a peaceful and prosperous a healthy and happy 2021 thank you okay we have to take a break but uh the series of important guests will not stop we have just begun we're going to talk about Outlook 2021 for the oil and gas space from someone who makes policy for that space petroleum secretary tarun kapor joining us in just a minute after the break
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