저자: TheRose · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 포트폴리오 전량을 에스티로더 한 종목에 집중했고 1분기 2025에 비중을 두 배로 늘렸다고 전함. 주가는 1년간 40% 이상 하락했고, 신임 CEO의 'Beauty Reimagined' 전략과 해외 여행 회복, 중국 경기 반등이 턴어라운드 근거로 제시됨. 2026년 EPS 턴어라운드 기대, PEG 1.28로 합리적 밸류 주장. 진행자 본인은 에스티로더를 보유하지 않으나 추가 매수 가능성 언급. 진행자 보유 종목은 AMD, 마이크로소프트, 알파벳, 팔란티어 등.
다듬은 글
Well, they caught up on their pants. Uh, another 30 days late. LTV 95, LTV 90. They they caught up on their pants. 60 days late as well as LTV 110. I've never heard of that. 30 days late. Remember the guy who saw the 2008 crash coming? The legend from the big short who bet against the entire housing market and made billions?
Michael Bur. He's back, but this time his latest move is sending shock waves through Wall Street because his entire public portfolio, every single dollar is now invested in just one company. That's right. The man known for his deep dives, his contrarian plays, his ability to find unseen value has sold out of all of his positions other than one singular company.
And that stock is the beauty company Estee Lauder. Not only is this Michael Bur's only position, but he also doubled his position in the company in Q1 of 2025. And this move from Michael Bur is likely because he sees the stock trading at a discount compared to its intrinsic value. With a stock that is down by over 40% in just the last year, it's likely that Michael Bur is betting on a strong turnaround for this company.
And this turnaround will have to be driven by their new CEO Stfan de la Fav. And this new strategy is being called beauty reimagined. It has three main focuses. The first being operational excellence. They need to improve their operations to help drive stronger margins. Second, they need to follow consumers and become more agile to where people are actually looking to buy their products.
And third, they need to make sure that they are winning on price and that they are priced appropriately for their consumers. to talk about the strategy. Our strategy clearly has been laid out like you know a few weeks ago like you know as called beauty reimagine and we are very clear that our mission is to reignite growth and reestablish a solid double digit operating margin for the company.
Everything that is happening out there is basically taking into consideration we have solid and iconic brand in the portfolio of the ester company. You've mentioned some of them from Lame to Esteler to Tomv Jalon London here like you know in the UK and we are very convinced that our brands are really meeting the consumer demand around the world.
We just need to be more agile. We need to be faster you know reacting like you know to the trend of like you know the consumers and one of the things that I've committed is to make sure that we follow the consumers where they are going. We need to be more reactive to where the consumer goes and we need to simply just make sure that we give them the innovation that they are looking for in the time that they want it.
And that leads into the next thing that Michael Bur likely sees with Estee Lauder and that is the strength of their brands. They have a number of high-end beauty brands that are very recognizable across the entire world. The problem with these higher-end brands is they tend to suffer, especially when you see consumers start to trade down.
And this is a trend that is not only occurring in the beauty sector, it's also occurring in grocery stores. And this trading down from consumers was a common theme amongst CEOs in the food industry. B&G's CEO actually called out that they would look at adding smaller sizes into their portfolio to attract consumers that might be looking to trade down.
And we have seen this trend in the beauty industry with brands like E.L.F. Beauty. E.L.F. Beauty from their lows back in April has made over a 150% move up as consumers have looked to trade down to brands like E.L.F. that offer lowerc cost products. However, we are starting to see a trend in one key industry that should have a major effect on Estee Lauder and that is international travel.
International travel has now hit the same levels that it was at back in 2019. And according to the UN, the area seeing the largest increase in travel in the first quarter of 2025 was the Asia-Pacific region, which increased 13% year-over-year. And this is a key area of Estee Lauder's business. They rely heavily on their global travel retail business, especially those customers coming out of China.
For instance, in their most recent earnings report, they announced a net sales decrease of 16% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, primarily being driven by slow global travel retail business. What we should also start to see from Estee Lauder over the next couple of quarters is a return to growth.
They will start having comps year-over-year that are much more favorable for the company to get back to growth in terms of their topline numbers. And we are already starting to see a slight reversal of this trend for their bottom line numbers. In their most recent quarter, they announced a positive GAP EPS of 44.
That is the first time they have came through with positive gap EPS for the last year. And analysts have this company starting to turn around in 2026. They only have one quarter left of 2025 earnings to announce. And the average expectation for non-GAAP EPS for the year is $147. That is down from $259 in 2024.
However, in 2026, analysts are expecting the company to put up around $2.22 of EPS. However, this turnaround could start as early as next quarter with the positive gap EPS that we saw in the previous quarter and the fact that Estee Lauder over the last four quarters has consistently beat analyst expectations.
This company is currently trading at a little bit of a premium compared to the market with a forward P ratio of a 29.41. However, when you look at their PEG ratio, it's currently sitting at a 1.28. That is fairly reasonable due to the fact that this company has a lot of room to grow their bottom line.
So, it's very likely that Michael Bur is looking at Estee Lauder, seeing all of the negative things that have occurred over the last few years that have beaten down the stock and also looking at the future and what it holds for this company. The potential turnaround in travel that we are seeing is a very bright sign for Estee Lauder and their business moving forward.
And if we start to see a turnaround as well from the Chinese economy, there is a lot of upside to this company. And that is likely why Michael Bur is holding this singular stock in his portfolio. For me personally, I like being a little bit more diversified than owning just one singular stock. This is the YouTube portfolio and it's currently sitting at a value of just over $64,000.
Within this portfolio, I do not hold any Estee Lauder. However, it is one that I could look to add and I could easily see myself owning in the future. What I do hold is Google Super Microcomputer, Microsoft, AMD, Adobe, SoFi, PayPal, Alibaba, Palunteer, Abbercrombie, and Fitch. We also have Apple, United States Lime and Minerals, and then Hawkins.
And we've recently seen a dip in United States Lime and Minerals. I wouldn't mind buying a little bit of that dip because that's the only position that I'm currently down on. Almost down by 8%. We've also seen Abberrombie and Fitch fall back down a little bit. Right now, I'm only up around 2% on this position.
So, I wouldn't mind adding a little bit more to that position as well. But like I always say, don't buy a company just because some random guy on YouTube purchased it. Make sure you are doing your own research and looking into companies that meet your risk tolerance. as well as your time horizon. Thank you guys so much for watching and supporting the channel.
If you did enjoy the video, make sure to drop a like down below and subscribe for more videos like this one. And of course, as always, have a wonderful rest of your day.
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