저자: TheRose · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바는 2020년 이후 규제·지정학 리스크로 약 70% 하락했으나 최근 한 달 25% 반등. 데이비드 테퍼가 알리바바 포지션을 대폭 확대(약 67억 달러, 포트폴리오 1위)하며 중국 기업 비중을 높였다. 중국과 미국 기업 간 PER 격차가 역대 최저 수준으로 좁혀져 저평가 매력이 언급됨. 바이든의 대중 관세는 미국 제조업 고용을 늘리려는 전략으로 설명되며, 알리바바엔 간접적 부정 영향 가능성. 발표자는 중국이 내수·중산층 육성으로 전환 중이라 보고 알리바바의 역할을 강조. 단, 유명 투자자 매수만으로 따라 사지 말고 직접 조사하라고 경고.
다듬은 글
today I want to talk about Alibaba we'll go over a brief history of what's gone on with the stock over the last few years as well as discuss some very big buys from Super investor David terer and finally I want to discuss the tariffs that have been announced and the effects they could have on China so if you enjoyed the video drop a like down below and if you want to see more videos like this one make sure to subscribe Alibaba is a stock that has been beaten down over the course of The Last 5 Years trading down almost 43% from where was trading in 2019 and from its all-time highs of over $300 the stock has fallen over 70% however in the past month alone we have seen some very strong momentum behind this stock as it has risen over 25% Alibaba collapsing over the course of the last 5 years has come from a number of different reasons the first one really occurred back in November of 2020 when Chinese Regulators began cracking down on Tech companies throughout China as they felt like they had too much power and were too large for their own good this really kicked off with the Chinese government blocking the IPO of ant group Alibaba owns a large portion of ant group so this had a big effect on Alibaba stock price we've also seen the Chinese government Ru out a number of multi-billion dollar fines against both Alibaba and ant group more recently we saw a$1 billion fine against ant group in 2023 a lot of investors believe that this is the last Crackdown from the Chinese government on big Tech on top of all this the US government started demanding that Chinese companies allow us Auditors to actually look at their books and this brought up concerns of Alibaba potentially being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange this concern eventually subsided as the Chinese government allowed Auditors into the country to look at the books however more concerns continue to pop up throughout China as large manufacturers that once looked at the country as an area to produce lowcost Goods have now look to move their operations elsewhere some of the two most notably being Apple and Samsung a lot of these are macroeconomic conditions that Alibaba really doesn't have direct control over however alibaba's underlying business has suffered due to some of these conditions their revenue is only growing around 7% currently and they also have seen their net income collapse in a major way by 96% down to $127 million there are some very big positives around Alibaba as well they're starting to grow their AI Revenue in a significant way up triple digits as well as they are repurchasing a large amount of their shares in the fourth quarter they repurchased $4.8 billion worth of shares with the weakness that we have seen throughout China a lot of super investors have shifted their focus to buying some of these discounted stocks and one of those super investors is none other than David teer who is building out positions in a number of Chinese companies including Alibaba if you AR familiar with David teer he is the founder of a hedge fund called apalooza management and has a net worth of $2.6 billion he is most commonly well known as the owner of the Carolina Panthers but has generated very good returns over the years through his hedge fund in 2001 he generated 61% returns by trading bonds and then in 2009 he was trading Financial companies buying into companies like Bank of America when they were trading extremely low after the Great Recession and now David terer sees a lot of potential in Chinese companies specifically Alibaba where he overd doubled his position in the last 3 months of the year growing it to a $6.7 billion position in his portfolio he also bought Chinese companies like PDD Holdings BYO and JD as well as trimmed some very interesting positions in the Magnificent 7 including those of Amazon Microsoft meta and Nvidia in total Chinese companies now make up almost a quarter of the hedge funds portfolio here we could see a full breakdown of the portfolio that David teer manages and Alibaba is now the number one holding in that portfolio making up 12% with an average cost estimated at about $78 a share we can see the trims that he made to his Amazon Microsoft meta Nvidia and even Google Shares as well as the ads here in PDD as well as buo and if we scroll down a little bit further we also see the big ad in JD and one of the big reasons that David teer has added all of these Chinese companies is due to the differences in PE ratios that we have seen seen between us-based and chinese-based companies this graph shows that over the past 10 years there has always been a significant difference in what investors are willing to pay for chinese-based companies versus us-based companies however more recently at the start of 2024 we saw this difference drop to an all-time low and this big difference has a lot to do with the relationship between the US and China and it doesn't seem to be getting any better with Biden announcing new tariffs against China and overall these tariffs are looking to help increase the number of jobs throughout the US in manufacturing this is a common strategy when you increase tariffs you increase the cost of producing Goods overseas and thus you cause companies to reconsider where they are producing their goods and they will most likely if that cost gets too high start increasing their production in us-based facilities there's a few different ways to look at this when it comes to Alibaba Alibaba primarily sells Goods throughout China so overall this shouldn't have a huge effect on them directly however there could be indirect negative effects I.E if we see manufacturing shut down in areas of China for goods that were sold to the US this could thus cause some people throughout China to lose their jobs and not have money to pay for goods that Alibaba sells and ultimately this could have a negative effect across the Chinese economy however one thing that China has shown over the course of the last 6 months to a year is that they're looking to help improve their economy they're doing this by cracking down less and less on big tech companies throughout the country and trying to grow their middle class China has a very large discrepancy between their upper class and lower class incomes and what they need to do is focus on growing their middle class and building out that section of the population and part of the way they can do that is by improving companies like Alibaba and improving manufacturing for goods that they sell throughout their own country so ultimately I think China is going through a period where they have to focus more internally on how they generate growth and this is something that they haven't necessarily had to do over the last couple of decades they've gotten a lot of growth from external factors but now they need to shift to internal growth and trying to build up the middle class and I think that alib is going to be a big part of that as they are one of the largest companies in the country so I would love to see Alibaba continue to grow and gain success and work more closely with the government to kind of help build up the country and get it back on track overall and I believe that David teer sees this as well he sees the Chinese government as well as the Chinese economy in general going through a period of change and sees this as an opportunity to get into these Chinese companies for very very acheve valuations but keep in mind do not buy a company just because some random guy on YouTube talked about it do not buy a company just because some super investor bought into it make sure you are doing your own research and looking into companies that meet your risk tolerance as well as your time Horizon I hope you enjoyed the video if you did drop a like down below and if you want to see more videos like this one make sure to subscribe and as always guys have a wonderful rest of your day and for the joke of the day why don't football players wear glasses check the comment ments down below for the answer thanks for watching
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