저자: 미상 · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 퍼싱스퀘어 포트폴리오 분석. 10년 수익률 181.5%로 S&P500(176%) 상회. 치폴레·힐튼·알파벳 등 비중 조정, 나이키·브룩필드 신규 매수. 알파벳(구글) 비중이 가장 크고 저평가로 보유 중이라는 진행자 개인 견해. 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
today I want to take a look at Super investor Bill amman's portfolio Bill Amman is the CEO and founder of persing square Capital Management and currently has an estimated net worth of $9 billion and according to persing Square's website they have returned 181.50 over the course of the last 10 years this is as of August 31st however always take these numbers with a grain of salt because if you go back just a few months all the way back to March of this year they were return starting around 242 over the course of the last 10 years so this is only a snapshot in time and really fluctuates a lot with the market but still we can compare those numbers to the returns you would have achieved through the S&P 500 and if we go back to August 15th of 2014 and see the returns through till today that's about 176% return over that time period so Bill Amman has been able to outperform the S&P 500 over the past 10 years so today what we are going to do is we are going to Di dive into Bill amman's portfolio and take a look at some of his key positions top and bottom line numbers over the course of the last few years so if you enjoy the video Bill Amman is a super investor and what that means is each quarter he has to release any sort of moves that he's making in his public portfolio so those are publicly traded companies that you can find on the stock market and what is very interesting to look at is these super investors the move moves that they're making either in reductions or buys as well as how they balance their portfolios and Bill is one who reduced his positions almost all the way across the board reducing his position in Hilton Chipotle restaurant Brands International as well as his C and A Class shares in alphabet and Canadian Pacific Railway he also added two new Holdings to the portfolio buying Brookfield Corporation as well as Nike if you pay a lot of attention to these super investors there's a couple things that you will notice the first being that they have very concentrated portfolios his top two positions make up almost 40% of his portfolio and in total bill Amman only has nine stocks and the other main thing with these super investors is they often have a very defined circle of competence what I'm talking about there is what they feel comfortable buying into the types of companies that they understand and they feel like they have a very good understanding of the broader Market in and for Bill Amman that is food or restaurant companies we see that with a couple of his current Holdings with Chipotle and restaurant Brands International but Bill Amman has also had Holdings in McDonald's as well as yum brands you may not be familiar with the name yum brands however you're likely familiar with some of the companies that they hold including KFC Taco Bell and Pizza Hut and yum brands is a very similar type of holding company as restaurant Brands International which makes up 15.64% of Bill amman's port portfolio and he only made less than a 1% reduction to this holding and restaurant Brands International holds four very recognizable restaurant chains including Tim Horton's Burger King popey's and Firehouse Subs Bill Amman originally formed this position all the way back in 2016 however he sold out over the course of 2017 2018 and 2019 but when the pandemic hit and we saw a lot of these restaurants close down he decided to buy in heavy and over the course the last few years he's kind of trimmed that position here and there as well as added to it in small stints in terms of their revenue over the course the last few years they've actually done a very good job of growing their revenue by low double digits or sometimes High single digits which for a restaurant chain is very solid and they also saw their revenue dip below $5 billion during the pandemic however they more recently have actually been able to grow this Revenue far beyond where it was prior to the pandemic to around $7.5 billion and EPS has followed a similar Trend they saw their trailing 12-month EPS dip to a160 during the pandemic however more recently they've been able to grow their 12-month EPS to around $3.98 which again is much higher than we saw prior to the pandemic of around $3.9 so restaurant Brands International seems like a very solid company however one company that is more than solid is Chipotle and that makes up 17.
34% of Bill anan's portfolio however he reduced his position by almost 23% this past quarter and that reduction may have to do with some of the drama around Chipotle's portioning but also it seems like good timing because the CEO of Chipotle Brian Nichols actually left to become the new CEO at Starbucks and we're kind of starting to see a trend from Bill Amman because he tends to build out a big position very quickly and he did this similarly with Chipotle he bought in heavy in 2016 however over 2018 and 2019 and even a little bit into 2020 he sold out of portions of his position ended up buying back in in July or August of 2021 however more recently he's reduced his position significantly over the last 3 quarters and Bill Amman likely bought in back in 2016 when there were some concerns around Chipotle's Revenue they saw the revenue Fall year-over-year by 23% however more recently the company had has done outstanding since 2020 they have increased their revenue significantly we saw their trailing 12-month Revenue at the end of 2020 sitting around $6 billion however today it's eclipsed $10.5 billion and that's a very similar Trend to their EPS numbers back in 2016 their trailing 12-month EPS was sitting at 2 cents Bill Amman was buying in and clearly believed in this company and over the long term that's played out very nicely because their trailing 12-month EPS in the most recent quarter came out to a12 Chipotle has been one of Bill amman's biggest winners and he's clearly looking to kind of reduce his holding in this position as we've seen large reductions in three of the last four quarters however one other position that bill Amman is very well known for is his position in Hilton which makes up 18.76% of his portfolio and Hillen appears to be a company that bill Amman feels like he has a very good understanding of the market on he originally started buying in and forming out a position in 2018 2019 however more recently we saw him sell out of portions of his position in 2021 and 2022 and then when the stock dipped he appears to have bought back in and then sold out again bought back in sold out again it's been a very consistent stock for Bill Aman to kind of trade in and out of and this trading in and out of the stock may have something to do with the fundamentals behind the company because we've seen a lot of dips in their revenue back in 2016 we saw the revenue fall from $1 billion down to $4 billion then in 2018 2019 we saw them sitting around $9 billion and then it dipped down during the pandemic to around $3.2 billion for the trailing 12-month period however over the course of last few years it's consistently increased and they're getting back to around that $ 11 billion of trailing 12-month revenue and EPS has had a very similar up and down effect over the course of the last 10 years their current trailing 12-month EPS is sitting at $4.72 however during the pandemic they saw it drop all the way down to $3.3 so they've rebounded very nicely however the pandemic had a very large effect on the Travel industry so it really makes sense that they saw this massive dip in both their top and bottom line numbers but something that could have attracted Bill Amman to this stock is their buyback program hillan does a very good job of buying back their shares we could see that year year over year in 2018 they reduced their share count by almost 8% and they've consistently over the last 5 years or so been able to reduce their shares outstanding by around 4 to 5% So based off all those fundamentals it's a very interesting company to have Hilton as your number one position however if you look a little bit closer Hilton is not actually his number one position that goes to Google because he owns two different classes of Google shares his C-Class shares make up13 .3% of his portfolio and his other class of shares make up almost 7% of his portfolio so in total Google is a little over 20% of Bill amman's portfolio and Bill Amman built out this position in 2023 when the stock was sitting under $100 per share he purchased over 8 million shares and then he purchased again the following quarter around a million shares and he only has one sell and that is back in this most recent quarter he sold about 2 million of those shares and this is the one position of bill amman's that I also hold in my portfolio and a lot of that has to do with the fundamentals behind the business of Google we can see that they consistently have been able to grow their revenue from 2020 till now they have gone from $171 billion of Revenue all the way up to $330 billion of Revenue and EPS has had a very similar Trend back in the middle of 2020 they brought in a trailing 12-month EPS of $259 however in their most recent quarter this number has grown all the way up to $6.97 and in the more recent dip in Google's share price I wouldn't be surprised if we actually see Bill Amman adding to his position in Google the last position that I want to talk about in Bill amman's portfolio is Nike because this stock has been on a roller coaster for the last 3 years since the end of 2021 Nike stock price has fallen by over 50% and this has led to Bill Aman buying into the stock he purchased over 3 million shares of the company however what's very interesting about this purchase is at the end of this quarter the stock fell by around 20% over a couple of trading days so the question is was Bill Amman buying before or after this fall and this fall has been spurred by a lack of Revenue growth in the last four quarters they have seen the their revenue grow by only 2% 5% 3% and in their most recent quarter they actually saw their revenue decrease year-over-year by 1.7% EPS over the last 3 years has been basically flat in 2021 their EPS numbers were sitting around $370 to $3.80 however most recently they've gotten back into this range of around $3.75 so I wouldn't be surprised if in this next quarter's announcement if Bill Amman has actually either doubled down on this position or even potentially sold out of this position because back a few years ago bill Amman actually bought into Nike in 2017 in the very next quarter he completely sold out of his position this had to do with the fact that the stock ran up over that time period however if Bill Amman doesn't believe in the company after this most recent earnings report we could see him actually dump his shares or if he still believes in the company and where they're headed in the future he could have potenti doubled down on the stock in the most recent quarter so we will have to wait and see what happens here during the next announcement and it'll be interesting to keep an eye on Bill amman's positions personally my favorite position of his is Google or alphabet I think that this company is very well positioned their valuation is also not very high compared to a lot of the other tech companies out there and for that reason I hold Google in my portfolio and even with this most recent dip I'm considering adding more to my position but as I always say don't buy into a company just because I talked about it here on YouTube and don't buy into a company just because some super investor bought into it make sure you are doing your own research and looking into do you call a potato wearing glasses check the
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