저자: 미상—출연자명시없음 · 외국인
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마이클 베리(Michael Burry)의 2024년 2분기 13F 보유 종목 변화를 분석한 영상. 베리는 단기(6개월~1년) 거시 환경 기반 매매 성향으로 소개됨. 리얼리얼(REAL)은 일부 매도, JD닷컴은 매도(월마트 지분 매각 발표로 주가 약 10% 하락), 바이두(BIDU)와 알리바바(BABA)는 매수 추가, FOUR는 신규 매수. 진행자는 중국 경기 회복과 중국 기업 저평가를 근거로 알리바바 보유 및 동의 입장을 밝힘. 과거 실적 수치 위주의 설명이 대부분이며 가격 방향 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
today we're going to be talking about none other than legendary investor Michael bur's 13f filing for those of you who don't know the 13f form is a quarterly report that must be filled out by all institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management Michael B's fund is currently estimated to manage just under $200 million and of that $200 million 52 million of it falls under the 13f filing so in this video we will take a look at at the moves that Michael bur has made over the last quarter so if you enjoy before we jump into everything I want to discuss the type of investor that Michael bur is this is important to keep in mind as you're watching this video because you need to understand how you are as an investor and compare that when you're looking at some of these other investors because what they are doing may not necessarily be right for you and in terms of Michael bur he is a lot more of a 6mon to onee type of Trader and by 6 months to one year I mean his time Horizon is very short he will buy into positions and then sell them 6 months later he will buy into positions and sell them 3 months later often times he will not hold positions for a very long period of time he's not looking 3 to 5 years out he's looking at macroeconomic conditions that could affect companies in the short term and then making trades based on those conditions and you can even see this when you look at his portfolio out of all 10 of his positions he made Moves In nine of them there was only one position where he did not make any move in and he actually added five of the positions this quarter reduced two of the positions and then added large chunks in another two positions and that doesn't even include stocks that he sold completely out of which was a total of 11 positions including stocks like City Group block Advanced Auto Parts and BP let's start by taking a look at two positions that he reduced his stake in this includes jd.com as well as real real Inc for those who don't know real real is an e-commerce brand that sells high-end clothing year-to date the stock has performed relatively well up 34% and that's despite lackluster growth on their top line over the course of the last year and a half the revenue has been relatively flat it peaked in 2022 at around.
6 billion and currently is sitting around5 $6 billion for the trailing 12-month period in their most recent quarter they did see 10.7% growth year-over-year however the cop is from one of their lowest quarters since 2021 however they do appear to be getting closer to profitability this time last year they were losing $212 for the trailing 12-month period that has since declined to around 91 cents of losses for the trailing 12 months and in my opinion I think this is likely michaelb locking in some gains we could see how how he's built out this position over time back at the start of 2023 is when he first started buying into real reel and he built out a position of well over a million shares in the company however by the second half of 2023 he ended up selling out of a large portion of those shares and then continued buying back in 2024 and once the stock ran up in February he likely looked at that move and saw the gains that he had on this position and has decided to lock in some of those profits I don't believe Michael bu has been as Lucky in his position in JD year to date JD is up around 32% however Michael bu has built this position out over the course of a number of years and if we look at the one-year chart the stock is down over 15% and over the course of The Last 5 Years this stock is down around 2% JD is a Chinese e-commerce company and with the weakness we have seen in China it's no surprise that their revenue has been relatively flat since 2022 so over the course of the last 2 years they have gone from $16.7 billion of Revenue to $ 1538 billion of Revenue over the course of the last year or so their EPS numbers have been relatively flat this time last year they were putting up a197 of trailing 12-month EPS they did see a very strong quarter most recently putting up A113 of eps bringing their trailing 12-month EPS to $276 however this is still still down significantly from the pandemic highs of $510 of trailing 12-month EPs and it seems to be a trend for melbury that he's selling at a loss on JD if we look back in 2022 when he started building out his position he bought 250,000 shares over late 2022 and early 2023 and he sold completely out of the position in the middle of 20123 likely at a lower price point than where he was purchasing the shares at over the next three ERS he bought back in and built out a position and now we're seeing him sell out again likely at a price that's lower than where he was buying at the end of 2023 however this likely may still be good timing for michaelb because it was just announced that Walmart is looking to sell out of a portion of their stake in JD and this announcement sent the stock down by almost 10% after hours now let's talk about two positions that michaelb added to which include BYU and Alibaba IU is a Chinese internet company that specializes in the search engine market and so far year to date the stock is down around 24% and Buu is going through a similar Trend to what we saw with JD and that's because again it's a chinese-based company and with the Chinese economy in the position that it currently is a lot of these companies are struggling to grow on their top line if we look back at 2022 they peaked at a trailing 12-month revenue of $19.7 billion it is since declined down to $1.78 billion for EPS we saw a massive drop off for bu in early 2022 and throughout the middle of the year however more recently we've seen the numbers level off they're sitting at a trailing 12-month EPS of $751 this is still down significantly than where we saw it in 2021 of $21.22 and it's even down from prepandemic levels of 2018 around $13.30 and this appears to be a position that Michael bu is building out over time because he bought 40,000 shares in the first quarter of 2024 and then another 35,000 shares in the second quarter another position that michaelb added to was Alibaba and currently this position makes up over 21% of his portfolio and year to date the stock is up around 8.4% however Over The Last 5 Years Alibaba has fallen over 50% and Alibaba is held up a little bit better than the previous two companies that we've looked at out of China they did Peak at a trailing 12-month revenue of $ 134.5 billion in 2022 that has since declined down to $131.5 billion in the most recent quarter however four out of the last five quarters have shown growth year-over-year with the only quarter shrinking in the last five quarters only decreasing by .5% EPS was trending in the right direction it went from 92 in 2022 back up to $7.3 of trailing 12month EPS however more recently it's actually Fallen back down to $386 this is down from their all-time high of $937,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022 followed by another 50,000 shares in the first quarter of 2023 which he ended up selling out of his State completely in the middle of 2023 however over the last four quarters he's bought into the stock and averaged his position over time and likely this is a play from Michael bur on China turning around their economy and the current valuations of Chinese companies are sitting extremely low forward P ratios as of February 29th of 2024 were sitting under a nine compared to the US market at that time was trading at a 21.1 the final company I wanted to talk about in this video is a company that goes by the ticker symbol four and Michael bur added this position this quarter and it makes up 14% of his portfolio and they are actually a Payment Processing Company for a lot of top brands across the US despite the current weakness in the general economy this company's been able to grow their Topline Revenue by anywhere from 20 to 30% over the course of the last 2 years and their current trailing 12-month revenue is sitting at $2.9 billion and ever since the second half of 2022 this company has been profitable on a trailing 12-month period their current trailing 12-month EPS is sitting at $169 year-to date 4 is up just under 8% however over the course of the last year it's up a more impressive 46% however from its all-time highs achieved back in 2021 the stock has fallen just under 22% and Michael bur just started building out a position in this company adding 100,000 shares in the last quarter at a potential price of $66 per share overall if you look at Michael bur's portfolio it seems like he's betting big on China and a turnaround in that country and personally I do own shares of Alibaba and I agree with this thesis I think that Alibaba and a lot of these Chinese companies will do well once the Chinese government takes some steps to potentially lower interest rates and help boost their overall economy but remember don't buy a stock just because I talked about it here on YouTube do not buy a stock just because a super investor bought into it make sure you are purchasing kind of bagel can travel check the
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