Terry Smith： Choose Quality Stocks Over Value Investing

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Fundsmith는 장기간 자본을 높은 수익률로 재투자하는 우량기업만 보유하는 전략을 설명. 가치주의 저수익 기업 보유는 가치 파괴이며, 우량기업 복리 효과가 핵심. 현재 투자 가능 유니버스는 65개 기업이며 신기술에는 회의적이고 오래된 기술(엘리베이터·에스컬레이터 등)을 선호. 과거 30년 데이터상 평균적으로 시장 PE의 약 4배까지 지불해도 손익분기 가능하다고 주장.

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01. if you want an exposure to a market or everything they need in one place the world's formost Authority individuals advisers and institutions hello and welcome to the Morning Star series why should I invest with you I'm Emma wall and here with me today is Terry Smith chief executive of fun Smith hello Terry hi it's the fundsmith Equity Fund is now four years old I think it's as marked by what's not allowed in the fund as what is allowed in of fun so perhaps you could talk me through the screening process you do for stocks yeah sure what we we're screening for is to get rid of bad companies um we think there are very few good companies in the world companies that consistently make a return on their capital above their their cost of capital right across their business and economic cycle that you can rely on not to destroy any value for you while you're holding them uh now most fund managers uh will hold all kinds of companies good and bad and there's more than one way of investing I'm not saying it's the only way of doing it but one of the problems of owning the bad companies in life is whilst you're waiting for those companies the sort of steel companies and the chemical companies and the Airlines and the banks of this world to have an event uh which is what people are really waiting for a change of management a takeover the business cycle to turn up they basically destroy value just the same as it would destroy value for you personally if you took in money at a cost of 10% and you invested it at five that's what they're doing the companies we own take in money at a cost of let's call it 10% and then Mak 30% you can rely on the fact that we may get the share price right or wrong when we buy them but whilst they're sitting there in that portfolio they consistently create value so that's what our screening process is about it's about looking for companies that right across the business and economic cycle have fundamentals that actually create value by making a high return on Capital in cash I one of the things that some value fund managers say is the way they they're able to make returns for you is by buying significantly cheaper stocks and waiting for that reating is there a risk then with your strategy that you're paying over the odds that the that these stocks are expensive um yeah you're right that's how some value fund managers seek to do it um I have to say looking at the average results of the industry not very many of them seem to manage to achieve outperformance with that and one of the problems with that strategy is this if you buy your poor company apart from the fact that uh it does destroy value whilst you wait if you get the your timing roughly right yeah it'll make some value for you it'll it will create some performance for you the problem is then you have to go fight another one whereas with our companies if we select them right we never have to go and fight a new company we can sit there not deal and as a result cut down the cost of running the portfolio um are they too expensive one of the things that we're really bad at as investors is judging the outcome of differential rates of compounding if you have ,000 that you invest for 30 years so an investment lifetime I would say roughly uh and you invested at 10% you'd have £17,000 at the end if you invested at just 2 half% more 12 half% you'd have £34,000 again twice as much if you invested at 15% only 5% more you have 68,000 four times as much the secret to the companies we are if there is a secret is that they actually compound in value more consistently in the market as a whole over long periods of time not because they grow faster but because they don't really have a downturn and that's what makes them relatively inexpensive over time because people find that hard to figure out so we did some work on 30 years of investment looking at baskets of companies of the salt we invest in and said on average what could you pay for those companies in terms of a PE versus the market and still break even over that 30 years versus the market and you know on average you could pay nearly four times the market PE and still break even now if my fund was sitting here today on twice the market Peak which it isn't I think you'd say it's too expensive your value investors would say that I'd probably say that but the real is it might not be if you take a long-term view looking then at that that screening process and that attitude you've just explained it sounds like you've got your companies in mind the companies that are in the fund now are the ones you're going to buy and hold forever does this sort of sometimes mean you're blinker to new Investments are you are you still keeping a lookout for New Opportunities yeah look we kick the tires pretty regularly uh on companies to try and find new companies to come into what we call our investable universe which currently consists of 65 companies that we would be prepared to invest in if the price was right and it's a continual search for that and yet we do look on the sort of the frontiers of things to see uh in terms of medical devices and in terms of installed bases of software and payment systems for what's emerging so it's not just the case that we look at companies that have been around for 100 years although on average they have been around for 100 years uh F enough on the whole though uh we're really suspicious of new technology it's really difficult to evaluate um I think most of us are bad at it so for example if I'd owned Sonny when Sonny dominated mobile music through the wman would I have spotted the rise of the MP3 player and the iPod I don't think I'd have got it if I'd have owned Yahoo when they were the kings of search would I have spotted that Google were going to come along and destroy their business effectively I don't think I'd have got it so we really like Old Line technology on that stuff that doesn't change very much over time for example we like elevator and escalator companies um the safety elevator was patented by Mr Otis in about 18 50 and you know what it hasn't changed significantly since and I don't think we're suddenly going to be startled by coming in one morning and finding people have got a new way of moving people up and down high buildings so that's the sort of thing that makes our our pulse Quicken is that kind of online technology Terry thank you very much this is Emma wool for Morning Star thank you for watching