저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 연준은 인플레이션 목표를 2% 이상으로 올린다 해도 실제로는 달성하지 못할 것이라 전망하며, 이는 시장이 이를 막을 것이라는 설명으로 모순적이라고 비판한다. 연준 점도표: FOMC 위원들의 전망치에서 향후 인플레이션이 2% 이상인 해가 하나도 없음. 실제로는 목표를 올렸음에도 2% 미만을 예상하는 것은 모순이라고 지적. 연준의 설명 비판: 파월은 시장이 인플레이션을 억제할 것이라 했는데, 연준이 진짜 믿는다면 양적완화를 더 늘려 물가를 올릴 수 있어야 함. 스키프는 연준이 채권시장이 고물가를 반영하는 것을 두려워한다고 봄. 인플레이션 필요성 논리: 파월은 저인플레이션이 저금리를 낳아 향후 금리 인하 여력이 없어지므로 인플레이션이 필요하다고 설명. 스키프는 이를 모순으로 보며, 연준이 이미 장기금리를 억누르고 있다고 주장. 거품 및 재정 관련 주장: 자산시장 거품 붕괴를 막고 정부 지출을 유지하려면 인플레이션이 필요하며, 연준이 이를 위해 설명을 조작한다고 주장. 피라미드식 구조를 유지하려는 것이라는 비판. 결론적 평가: 연준은 무지하거나 거짓말을 하고 있으며, 시장과 대중은 진실을 감당할 수 없다는 주장으로 마무리. 출연자 전망: 구체적인 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 연준 정책의 인플레이션 유발 및 금리 억제가 결국 자산시장과 경제 구조를 붕괴시킬 위험이 있다는 비관적 시각. 리스크 조건: 금리 상승 시 레버리지 경제가 무너질 수 있다는 경고.
다듬은 글
so if you look at the fed's actual projections where the fomc members uh project what they think the uh numbers are going to be so they say here's what we think the unemployment rate is going to be here's what we think gdp is going to be here's what we think inflation is going to be and of course it's all pure guesses these guys have no idea what anything is going to be so they're you know they're just guessing and pretending they know but not a single member of the fomc has a single year in their projection where inflation is two percent let alone above two percent they're projecting that inflation stays below two percent even though they are trying to get it to go above and so the guy that asks the question says look you know you've had this 2 target for years and you've never been able to hit it are you now saying that now that you're targeting inflation above two percent that you don't think you're going to hit that target either and the the answer though was really kind of surprising because basically what powell said is no given the other conditions that exist in the economy even though our goal is to have inflation above two percent we don't think we will achieve it we think that the market will prevent that from happening and that even though we're targeting officially an inflation rate above two percent we're not going to get an inflation rate above two percent which is such nonsense because clearly if the fed really believed those numbers and it really wanted the cpi to go up by two percent it could just print even more money i mean if they were that convinced that consumer prices were gonna be that behaved despite all the money they've already printed and injected into the economy if they really think that three years from now we're still gonna have a cpi that's moving up by less than two percent well they could just print more money right now they could already come out with a bigger uh quantitative easing program the fact of the matter is i think the fomc is afraid to put a cpi projection that exceeds two percent they have to continue to keep up the pretense that inflation is nowhere in sight that inflation is is is not even on the horizon that even if they want inflation above two percent that we're not going to get it because the last thing the fed wants to do is send a signal to the bond market that we're gonna have higher inflation because then the bond market starts to price it in and the minute the bond market starts to price in higher inflation the party's over because then interest rates go up and this whole levered economy comes collapsing down which actually brings me to another ridiculous q a on this very topic with respect to inflation because another reporter asked a good question got a bad answer but asked a good question why do we need more inflation right why do we need higher inflation right what's wrong with the inflation rate we have now but why does the fed need more inflation right and of course powell either has to believe one of two things right either he believes that higher inflation will lead to more economic growth that if we just target inflation the act of creating more inflation in and of itself will create economic growth so either he believes that or he believes that low inflation is somehow a barrier to economic growth and that if we allow inflation to go up we kind of remove that barrier and and then we'll have the growth so that maybe higher consumer prices is just a sacrifice right that we all have to make this sacrifice in order to have economic growth we need to also have this bad thing of higher prices to enable this good thing of growth now he has to believe one of those two things and of course either one is wrong but he has to believe one but he didn't even admit to either basically this is the answer that powell gave to the question of why you know why do we need higher prices because it should be obvious we don't nobody wants higher prices right i guess people i think about the guy the old man at the end of the video the walmart video that i did if you haven't seen my uh video it's on my youtube channel where i went out to walmart parking lot with my sign uh trying to get people to pay extra to support a 15 minimum wage and the guy at the end is hysterical and he's like you know nobody wants higher prices you know so it's really funny i don't want to give it away if you haven't seen it you should uh watch that video but look nobody wants higher prices we all want to pay lower prices and then you know powell says yes i know it's counter-intuitive i mean why is it that we need more inflation and then powell gave his answer right this is this is it right so what pal said is that when you have really low inflation the result of that is you have really low interest rates now in particular you're talking about long-term interest rates because that's where the inflation premium really kicks in so what pal is saying is hey if we have really low inflation then people will be willing to loan us money at a lower rate of interest because we won't have to compensate them for the loss to inflation because with lower inflation there's less of a loss and so we can have low interest rates now but isn't that a good thing i mean isn't that one of the added benefits of having low inflation not only do you get low prices but you can borrow at low rates of interest because the lenders don't have to worry about being repaid for the loss of purchasing power due to inflation so powell said here's the problem with low interest rates now what if the economy turns down and now the fed wants to artificially influence the market if the fed wants to try to manipulate the economy and try to stimulate it by cutting rates well if rates are already really low then we don't have a lot of ammunition right there's not a lot of arrows in that quiver so in order for the fed to be able to artificially stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates interest rates have to be higher to start out so then they can manipulate them down he said if we have these low interest rates permanently because of low inflation we don't have all that maneuvering room so we need to get inflation higher now so that interest rates will go up now so that we can cut them in the future which is all a bunch of nonsense because the fed is the one that's artificially suppressing interest rates right now the fed is claiming that it doesn't want low inflation because it doesn't want low interest rates when everything the fed is doing is to suppress interest rates i mean why did they interfere in the repo market even before covet because interest rates were rising why did the fed launch a massive quantitative easing program to prevent long-term interest rates from rising that's why it did it the fed is doing everything it can to keep long-term interest rates from rising but now it's saying the reason it has to create more inflation is to make long-term interest rates rise well what does the fed want do they want long-term interest rates to be low or do they want long-term interest rates to be high powell is speaking out of both sides of his mouth because he doesn't know what he's talking about or because he's just lying i mean the real reason that powell wants interest rates to stay low or rather the real reason that powell wants more inflation is because he can't do anything about it because the only way he can keep the air from getting out of the bubbles that he denies exists is by creating inflation the only way to prop up asset markets is through inflation the only way the government can keep spending is if the federal reserve makes it possible by creating inflation so that's why powell is saying the fed is going to allow more inflation because it's the only way to keep this pyramid scheme going to keep the ponzi from imploding we got to keep the government spending we got to keep the assets inflated we got to keep all these balls in the air and the only way to do that is with more inflation so powell has to make up some bs excuse to explain why something bad is good why we need higher prices even though we want and benefit from lower prices and he came up with this aside explanation that the reason we need higher inflation is so that we can have higher interest rates now and then have lower interest rates in the future even though the pal wants lower interest rates right now so if anything powell's explanation about why we need more inflation should prove that the fed is completely clueless has no idea what it's doing or is just outright lying every time it has to answer a question because like jack nicholson and a few good men they may know the truth but they know that the markets and the public can't handle the truth
Comments 0