저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 달러가 약세로 갈 것이며 인플레이션 우려를 디플레이션 주장보다 더 현실적이라고 본다. 달러 동향: 달러 인덱스가 1월 96.7에서 현재 약 92로 하락했고, 장중 91.80 아래까지 내려갔다가 반등했다. 유로는 1.19~1.20 수준에서 강세를 보인다. 시프는 이번 반등을 의미 있는 추세 전환으로 보지 않으며, 달러가 곧 저점을 갱신할 것으로 예상한다. 달러 내기: 브렌트 존슨과 연초 내기(2021년 1월까지 달러 방향)를 걸었고, 시프는 금화 한 개를 받아 두 배 이상 이길 것으로 본다. 지난 내기는 존슨이 졌다. 연준 대출과 인플레: 존슨은 연준이 돈을 빌려주기만 하고 쓰지 않으므로 인플레가 없다고 주장했으나, 시프는 대출금이 결국 지출되므로 구별이 무의미하다고 반박한다. 모기지 시장: 최근 5개월간 연준이 약 1조 달러의 MBS를 매입했고, 현 속도면 시장 전체를 소유하게 된다고 주장한다. 정부가 모기지를 보증하고 연준이 매입하는 구조를 자본주의가 아닌 폰지 구조로 비판한다. 정부 재정: 연방정부 지출의 60% 이상이 연준 자금으로 충당되며, 지출 규모는 7조 달러를 넘는다고 언급한다. 시프는 이를 사실상 상환되지 않을 대출, 즉 인플레를 부르는 구조로 본다. 국내 종목·자산 방향: 영상에서 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등 개별 종목 및 자산에 대한 명시적 가격 전망은 언급되지 않았다. 금 관련해서는 시프가 금화 내기를 언급하는 수준이다. 리스크: 1월까지 달러가 반등할 가능성이 있으나 시프는 가능성이 낮다고 본다. 고용보고서(금요일) 발표가 단기 변동 요인이 될 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 시프는 달러 약세, 인플레이션 가능성, 연준 주도 버블 구조에 대해 장기적으로 비관적이다.
다듬은 글
earlier today somebody had uh forwarded me a tweet from brent johnson you know he's the guy that has this milkshake theory he's the person that i bet a gold coin on whether or not the dollar would be higher or lower from january of this year to january of 2021 when we made the bet the dollar index was 96.7 today it's about 92.
in fact it was lower intraday we got below 91.80 on the dollar index before we had a reversal tuesday type rally today and so i think we closed up at around 92 30. the euro ran into some resistance at a dollar twenty uh and so it got pulled back back down to about a dollar nineteen but i don't think that this reversal tuesday rally in the dollar has any significance at all as far as putting in a low for the dollar or some kind of change in trend as i'm recording this the euro was about 119 14.
so the euro chart looks very very strong the dollar looks very weak i i think that the low that we put in today of uh 91 spot 746 will not stay the low uh for very long i think we'll take that low out before the week is over maybe even by tomorrow but of course you know we do have some economic news that is coming out uh we have the jobs report coming out on friday so that can certainly be a big mover uh in in the currency market so we'll see but the dollar to me looks like it's gonna get very very weak so i think brett johnson is gonna be owing me another gold coin although uh i think there's a lot more at stake uh than a single gold coin oh by the way uh brett lost the bet that we made a year earlier he already paid me a gold coin uh because he bet that the next fed move would be a hike i bet that it would be a cut i won and i got my first gold coin and so this bet is double or nothing and so far it looks like it's going to be double but i'm not going to count my chickens until they hatch because we have to wait until january it's possible that the dollar could rally between now and then but i think it is highly unlikely but anyway the tweet that was forwarded to me uh coming from brett johnson had to do with his argument that we don't have inflation that we're going to have deflation and he's basing it on the fact that the fed is not really printing money uh or even if it's printing money it's not inflationary because the money isn't being spent his point is that the fed is lending money not spending money and that in order for there to be inflation the money needs to be spent it's not simply enough to loan it it needs to be spent and to me this is a distinction without a difference what does brett johnson think is happening with the money that the fed is lending that money is being spent i mean for example in the last five months the federal reserve has purchased one trillion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities that is approximately one-third of all of the mortgage-backed securities that exist and in fact at its current pace if the fed continues to buy mortgages for another year it will own the entire market it will own all of the mortgage-backed securities that exist i mean think about that i mean if you think we have capitalism how do we have capitalism when all the mortgage credit is flowing from the government in fact not only does the government supply the credit it's also guaranteeing the mortgages because remember the the mortgages get originated and then the u.s government guarantees the mortgage and then the federal reserve buys it so the government is both insuring and originating the mortgages and of course how does the government insure the mortgage where does the government get the money if the borrower defaults it gets it from the fed so the fed is insuring the very mortgages that it owns it's insuring itself the whole thing is one ponzi scheme built on another but the one thing this is not is capitalism or a free market this is a bubble that is completely created by socialism by the federal reserve and the government but the point is even though the fed is technically lending the money the money is being spent it's being spent to buy houses right people are borrowing money from the fed and then they're using it to buy houses or remodel their houses or who knows what they're doing or if the fed is simply buying a mortgage that is already in existence right well what is the person doing who sold that mortgage to the fed now they have all this cash where they used to have a mortgage now they've got this cash they're spending that cash on something so the money is being spent even if the federal reserve is technically not doing the spending it's doing the lending whoever is getting that money from the fed in terms of a loan is spending it and of course the biggest spender of fed loans is the united states government the united states government right now is funding itself from the fed better than 60 cents out of every dollar the federal government is spending and it's spending over seven trillion dollars now but better than 60 cents out of every dollar is coming from the fed it's not coming from tax revenue more money is being printed and spent than collected in taxes and spent now technically these are loans right the federal reserve is loaning money to the u.s government right the u.s government is borrowing from the fed and then spending that money so i guess technically brett johnson is right the fed didn't spend the money they loaned the money but then the government spent the money that the fed loaned them so what's the difference the money is still being spent just because the federal reserve isn't spending it what difference does it make the federal government is spending it and if you think of the federal reserve as part of the federal government then it's just one part of the federal government making the loan and another part doing the spending it's the same thing it doesn't make a difference the money is getting spent and of course it's not really a loan because it's never going to be repaid you
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