저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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코로나 이후 정책 실수로 인플레이션이 통제 불능이 될 것이며 금은 그 수혜를 받는다는 결론. 금 가격 하락 배경: 당일 금 약 4~4.5% 급락(1960달러→약 1860달러대), 금광주 GDX 약 6%, GDXJ 약 6.09% 하락. 엔화·스위스프랑 약세와 금의 엔화 연동성이 하락을 부추겼다고 설명. 안전자산 흐름: 위험선호 전환으로 채권·엔화·스위스프랑·달러 등 안전자산이 매도됨. 넷플릭스 등 '재택 수혜주'도 같이 하락. 과대평가된 기술주가 안전자산으로 취급되던 현상을 비판. 금 장기 전망: 금은 코로나 자체가 아니라 통화·재정 정책 실수에 대한 안전자산으로 본다. 정책이 계속될 것이므로 금은 상승 추세가 유지될 것이라 주장. 통화·재정 정책 전망: 코로나 이전과 이후 누적된 부채와 통화 발행 때문에 연준이 긴축으로 되돌리기 어렵다고 주장. 경기 회복 후에도 부양책 중독에서 벗어나지 못한다고 봄. 인플레이션 전망: 수요는 스위치처럼 빠르게 회복되지만 공급은 투자와 생산 재가동에 시간이 걸려 수요가 공급을 앞지른다. 그 결과 물가 상승 압력이 커지고 통제 불능 인플레이션이 우려된다고 함. 비용·보험 리스크: 새로운 전염병 대응이 표준화되어 리스크가 경제 전반에 반영되고, 보험료 상승 등으로 글로벌 경제 효율성이 장기간 낮아질 것이라 전망. 백신 및 사회적 영향: 백신 출시와 보급까지 시간이 걸리며 국민 신뢰 문제도 있다고 봄. 일부는 코로나를 핑계로 일하지 않고 정부 지원에 의존하는 문화가 확산된다고 비판하며, 바이든 행정부와 민주당이 이를 이용할 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
and even if coven goes away we don't know if it's going to come back maybe there's going to be a cove at 20 and a cover 21. i have no idea but also i think that covet has now set the standard for how we respond to any new infectious disease you know we're just going to shut things down and ask questions later so this is a whole new level of risk that has been entered into the economy and now has to be priced in to the goods and services that every business provides because everybody has to realize this and insurance companies who may be on the hook for losses that relate to this they have to start pricing this into their premiums and so now businesses have to you know absorb the cost of higher premiums the whole global economy is going to be less efficient for a long long time as a result of what just happened you know even if this uh vaccine gets on the market but if it does we still have to deal with all the debt and all the money that was printed before we got the vaccine and all the debt and all the money that's going to be printed between the time they developed the vaccine and the time it's actually in use right this could take a while and then of course people are gonna have to be convinced to trust the vaccine a lot of people will be afraid to take the vaccine so how long will it take before people are willing to take it and remember the governments are already building up a big culture of people who are benefiting from covet and covid gives them the excuse that they're looking for not to have to work remember there are a lot of people that have jobs they don't like they're tedious right they're boring they have long commutes they would rather not go to work and get paid and if they can do that by claiming they're worried about getting coveted or they're worried that the vaccine doesn't work they want an excuse to not have to go to work they would rather to continue to ride the cloven gravy train and milk it as long as they can and i think a biden presidency and a lot of the democrats in congress are not going to uh ignore that because they they want that they want to be able to have voters dependent on government logarithms and so this is an excuse and get more people hooked on this government gold got clobbered today gold was down about 80 bucks about a little over four percent right almost four and a half percent drop in the price of gold that's a big move i mean it's not unprecedented and i've seen uh the price of gold move down by more than that but it's a big move and in fact i think at one point during the day we were down closer to a hundred dollars um as i'm looking at right now we're we're down maybe about 85 86 on the day we were trading on gold above 1960 an ounce this morning we were up you know 10 bucks 12 bucks last night and now we're a hundred dollars lower than that trading at you know 1860s but still i don't think that this does anything to disrupt the underlying uptrend that exists in the price of gold and of course a lot of the gold stocks got hit even harder than gold itself although they held up pretty good considering how big the drop in gold was the gdx was only down just over six percent now that is a big move but not when gold was down four and a half percent and gdxj was down actually slightly less 6.09 normally you would expect the juniors to be killed on a day when gold's down four and a half percent but they weren't i mean they were down but they weren't slaughtered so there is some smart money out there that is buying these dips in these miners i understand the initial leveraged uh reaction to the news right sell all the safe havens sell anything that benefited from coven and that's why all these stay-at-home stocks got killed but that's also why gold went down because a lot of people just assumed that gold benefited from the coventrate in fact other safe haven currencies that people would have bought also got clobbered the biggest losers today were the japanese yen and the swiss franc the japanese yen was down about two percent against the dollar i think the swissy was down maybe one to one and a half i forget exactly but the dollar index or the dollar itself was down against most currencies uh because you had strength in a lot of the commodity currencies a lot of the emerging market currencies again these were the currencies that really got hurt as everybody was worried about covid and going into the safe haven currencies like the yen and the swiss franc and the dollar and so they sold those currencies now just the way they sold the stay at home stocks i think the weakness in the swiss franc and in the yen also worked to pull down the price of gold because gold does have a pretty strong correlation to those currencies particularly the japanese yen i mean if you look back over the last few years you'll see a pretty strong correlation uh in a positive way between the yen and the price of gold so a big drop in the yen generally would mean a big drop in the price of gold and and that is what happened today and the same thing again with the bond market right the bond market was considered a safe haven uh in you know the times of covid people were worried about the economy they're worried about all sorts of stuff people defaulting and they were piling in the treasury so people unwound that right today was risk on and safety off and believe it or not people were taking refuge people looked at these stay-at-home coven stocks like netflix as being some kind of port in the coveted store like it was a safe haven i remember talking about that on the podcast how ridiculous it was that people regarded these overpriced tech names uh as being safe havens just because everybody was piling into them because they were worried about covet okay well what happens when covet is over and everybody wants to pile out but i think gold is very different because gold is not really a safe haven from covid gold is a safe haven from the covent cure at least the government cure it's a safe haven from the monetary and fiscal policy mistakes that were made in reaction to covet that's why gold was going up and it's because the government is going to continue to make the same monetary policy and fiscal policy mistakes after covet that's why gold is going to keep going up and in fact because of all the money they printed before covid because of all the extra debt that we accumulated during coven now that's why the fed can't dial it back that's why if the economy recovers from kovid it can never recover from the addiction to stimulus that's why the stimulus have to continue long after the disease that it was meant to cure goes away that means inflation is going to run out of control and even if you measure it by consumer prices because what's going to happen right demand is going to pick back up as a result of people returning to more economic activity but supply is going to come back with a lag right demand can be turned on like a switch supply can't right supply requires investment and production and to the extent that a lot of these supply chains have shut down and production has been turned off it doesn't come on you know like a switch it takes some time to recall all these factors of production and get them back into use again and so in the meantime you have demand outstripping supply and that puts upward pressure on prices but in the meantime they're going to keep on printing money you
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