저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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AMC 급등은 근거 없는 밈 주식 투기이며 결국 개인투자자가 손실을 떠안는 제로섬(실제로는 마이너스섬)이라는 결론. 주가 급등 배경: 2021년 7월 전주 대비 2배 가까이 급등(52주 저점 1.91달러 → 장중 약 0.73~0.80달러 표기 혼재 자막, 1.91달러는 52주 저점이라 발언 수치 불확실). 실질 뉴스 없이 '무료 팝콘' 제공 발표가 촉매였다고 언급. 기업 펀더멘털: 극심한 적자 사업, 코로나 이전부터 악화, 이후 더 악화. 스트리밍 확산으로 극장 수요 감소. 파산 직전이었으며 채권이 액면가 대비 헐값에 거래됨. 가치평가: 수요일 기준 시가총액 약 300억 달러라고 언급. 기업가치(EV)는 채권 포함 더 큼. 기업 행동: 회사가 신주를 발행해 시장에 매도(약 5억 달러, 이후 1,100만 주 등 추가 매도, 10억 달러 이상 언급). 개인 매수자 자금이 회사로 직접 유입되어 채권 상환에 쓰임. 수혜 구조: 채권 보유자(헤지펀드·기관·투기적 매수자)가 이익을 얻고, 개인 투자자는 마지막 '더 큰 바보'가 되어 손실을 떠안음. 주장 요지: 현재 상황은 투자가 아닌 도박이며, 다른 밈 종목(배드배스앤비욘드, 블랙베리)도 같은 패턴. 연준의 유동성이 주식시장을 카지노로 만들었다고 비판. 방향성 예측: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음(AMC는 장기적으로 이익을 낼 수 없다는 장기적 부정 견해). 리스크: 밈 주식 급락 및 개인투자자 손실 가능성 경고. 출연자 전망: AMC 장기 하락(사실상 사업 지속성 의문 제기).
다듬은 글
people are just buying these stocks just because everybody is talking about them and there's a lot of momentum in them and so they're going up and so people want to jump on a moving train and sometimes it's about hey we're going to make a political statement we're going to stick them to the man we're going to run the shorts which was the story with respect to gamestop the whole idea that this is some type of legitimate style of investing is complete nonsense and you know the reason i wanted to talk about it this week and i've mentioned it before but we really had an incredible move on wednesday in shares of amc which is a company that owns movie theaters and was in a lot of trouble uh in the last year the 52-week low on the stock is a dollar ninety-one and on wednesday it got as high as 72.62 cents although i saw our trading i think closer to 80 bucks on thursday morning you know before the open in the pre-market but it basically doubled in price on massive volume on wednesday and there was no real news out on the company in fact the only news was a story that the ceo of the company had decided to kind of reach out to all these reddit shareholders or wall street guys because the stock was up quite a bit the day before and the news was that anybody who self-identified as a shareholder on the internet could qualify for free popcorn when they go to one of their movies and there were some other perks but and so supposedly free popcorn was the catalyst for buying the stock even though technically you didn't actually have to buy the stock you just had a claim you own the stock and you can get the free popcorn but the fact that they're giving away free popcorn i mean how is that good news i mean movie theaters make a lot of money selling popcorn i mean it's a very high margin uh product right at the concession stand you know so they make a lot of money when you buy that stuff now if they give away the popcorn for free i mean that's obviously not good news for a company that's already hurting i mean this company was on its way for bankruptcy i mean the bonds were trading for pennies on the dollar because the bondholders knew that they weren't going to get their money back in fact the bondholders were going to become the owners of this company until all these people started buying this stock based on these chat rooms and so i'm watching the coverage of this on cnbc and they have all these people they're talking about amc you know they finally stopped talking about bitcoin for a while and they can start focusing on amc and so they're talking about what's going on amc and you get one guy after another seasoned investors been around for a long time kind of saying well you know i just don't get this new style of investing it's not the way i buy stocks i mean clearly there's no reason for this because the valuation isn't there i mean i think that the valuation of the company got to 30 billion dollars uh on wednesday and that's just the value of the stock not the enterprise value that includes all the bonds i mean all i have is about a thousand movie theaters not quite that many most of them losing money uh i mean it's a very very bad business it was a bad business before kovid and it's a worse business now because a lot of people are staying at home they're streaming movies at home a lot of these companies now are releasing the movies instead of at the theater brand new movies are coming out in streaming services so why go to the movies and pay you know 10 12 15 bucks a person to bring your family to a movie when you can stay at home and just watch the same movie at the same time on what probably is a big screen tv you know high definition 4k whatever you got your home theater so these movie theaters are dying out yet somehow this is the stock that all these meme traders decided they all wanted to pile into and so the thing is going up and you have these wall street guys scratching their heads hey i don't understand this new style of investing instead of coming out and admitting what it is this is not investing this is just gambling and it's not new i mean people have been gambling uh for a long time i mean this is really uh ponzis or pyramids chain letters whatever you want to call it the only thing that's new about this is the way it's being done right you've got all these novice investors inexperienced investors have no clue what they're doing right they now have trading apps robinhood online all of a sudden the us government sends out a bunch of stimulus money so now they've got all this cash and so they just buy all these stocks that they're reading about in these chat rooms they don't understand anything about fundamental analysis they're just buying whatever's getting hyped up and you know there's so much cash the federal reserve has basically turned the stock market into an outright casino and everybody is gambling nobody here is investing and this is going to end horribly for everybody just like when i talked about it initially when we had the big run up in gamestop now we're having this run up uh in amc but it's not just amc bed bath and beyond blackberry you have a few of these other stocks that are having huge moves up because people are piling into them but the only people who are going to make money in these stocks are the people who sell before the music stops this is a zero-sum game some people are going to make money and some people are going to be left holding the bag because amc is not going to generate a profit they're not going to pay dividends none of these shareholders are going to make money owning a part of this business so the only way you make money in amc is if you buy it and then you find a bigger idiot to pay a higher price than you did but eventually you're the last idiot and you get stuck holding the bag but actually for the small traders who are buying this stock it's not really going to be a zero-sum game it's going to be a negative sum game because the company is unloading stock out of the market in fact on thursday morning before the open one of the reasons the stock reversed and opened lower was because the company announced like 500 million dollars worth of stock 11 million shares they were gonna unload and they sold more stock today they've sold like over a billion dollars worth of stock so the company is creating these shares out of thin air and just selling them into the market so these buyers are buying it from the company so they're not enriching another guy who's selling the stock the money is just going right into the company and here's the irony of it all the people who are being enriched are the bondholders because now the bonds are going up the company is taking this money that it is getting by selling these shares to a bunch of idiots who are buying them on their trading apps and they're taking this money and repaying bondholders that we're not going to get repaid and if you think you're sticking it to the man by buying shares of amc you're just giving the man your money who do you think owns these bonds you think it's small investors that own amc bonds no it's hedge funds it's institutions it's some of these speculators that bought this debt on the cheap because it was heavily discounted and now they're getting a windfall because the company is now able to repay debt that it never could have repaid what would have happened was the bondholders would have ended up owning this company instead a bunch of idiots are gonna end up owning the company and the bondholders get a get out of jail free card because of these pump and dump schemes going on with these meme stocks
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