저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 부양책은 약한 경제를 강하게 만들 수 없으며, 현재 증시 강세는 경기 약세에 따른 부양책 덕분이라 거품 위험이 크고 하락 반전 신호가 나왔다. 기술적 분석: 오늘 장에서 전일 고가를 돌파한 뒤 전일 저가 아래로 마감하는 아웃사이드 리버설이 나와 약세 신호로 해석했다. 이후 추가 하락이 나올 것으로 예상했다. 트럼프 발언 비판: 트럼프가 증시 사상 최고치를 경제 강세의 근거로 든 것은 잘못이며, 실제로는 부양책이 증시를 떠받치고 있다고 주장했다. 협상 결렬 분석: 트럼프는 1.6조 달러 부양안에 서명 의사를 밝혔으나 민주당은 2.4조 달러를 고수해 협상이 결렬됐다. 공화당이 원칙 없이 부양책을 수용해 놓고 차액 6000억 달러만 거부하는 것은 정치적 동기로 보인다고 비판했다. 국가부채 우려: 국가부채가 2020년 들어 4조 달러 증가해 27조 달러를 넘었고, 트럼프 임기 중 약 7조 달러 늘었다. 오바마 8년 증가분보다 트럼프 4년 증가분이 많아질 것이라 전망했다. 바이든 당선 시 재정적자는 더 커질 것으로 봤다. 무역적자: 부양책은 생산성이나 부를 늘리지 않으며 무역적자를 키운다고 주장했다. 종목 언급: 개별 종목 언급은 없고 미국 증시 전반(S&P500·나스닥 등 지수 수준)에 대해 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 증시가 부양책이라는 마약 중독에 기대고 있어 금단 현상으로 하락할 위험이 크다는 약세 관점을 유지했다.
다듬은 글
donald trump tweeted the stimulus rug right out from under the stock market later today when he basically closed down negotiations with nancy pelosi and the democrats and temporarily dash the hopes that we will get a fresh round of fiscal stimulus which would require more monetary stimulus before the election now of course the election is just four weeks away right can the drug addicts on wall street you know hold off for another four weeks without going into stimulus withdrawal so far it doesn't look that way because you know when you got a uh a drug habit as big as the one that wall street has anything that delays the next fix right could really uh send you over the edge and in fact from a technical perspective today we had an outside reversal day the markets took out yesterday's high this morning when the market was up and not only did we close lower on the day but we closed below the lows from the prior day by definition making an outside reversal day this is not a good technical pattern in fact it's quite bearish and i would expect to see some follow-through in fact donald trump in his tweet pretty much invited some follow-through because one of the comments that he bragged about as kind of like why we don't even need the stimulus was that the stock market was near record highs right he bragged about how strong the economy was and how the market was at record highs meaning that we don't really need the stimulus because we're doing well on our own well i would say that the only reason the stock market is near record highs is because of the stimulus in fact one of the few things that the stimulus actually stimulates is the stock market trump is trying to claim that the stock market is strong because the economy is strong it's actually the reverse the stock market is strong because the economy is weak it's the weak economy that is driving the stimulus and without the stimulus the stock market would actually be much lower to reflect the weakness of the economy because again the stimulus can't make a weak economy strong but it can provide more air into a stock market bubble and that's what's been going on although i don't like uh trump's strategy for why uh he is walking away from talks with the democrats because he's claiming that nancy pelosi just wants two biggest stimulus right the the delta between where the president is and where uh pelosi the democrats are is 600 billion dollars right donald trump tweeted that he's willing to sign on to a 1.6 trillion dollar stimulus but the dems are holding tight they insist on 2.4 trillion and there's an impasse and the president won't budge and so he's uh leaving negotiations and the problem is you know once you accept the false uh premise that government stimulus actually helps the economy that it really is a stimulus right then you've kind of lost the argument because if borrowing and printing 1.6 trillion dollars if that's a good thing why isn't borrowing and printing 2.4 trillion dollars a better thing right because you put the republicans in the position of arguing that 2.4 trillion is too much of a good thing that somehow if we just create 1.6 trillion out of thin air and spend it that's really going to help but if we push it to 2.4 it's actually going to hurt why i mean when does something good suddenly become something bad now i know what trump was trying to say as well the extra 600 billion that's just going to bail out uh democratic states it's going to help them out of a mess that is unrelated to covid but if the people in those states are going to take that money and spend it and if just spending money is good for the economy then why isn't that good i mean what difference does it make why the money is being doled out if it just benefits the economy the minute it's being spent then what is the real rationale is it all partisan is it all political i mean that's kind of how it looks is that this is all about politics that the president doesn't want to help the democrats because there's an election coming and he's willing to sacrifice the good of the country for political partisanship see if donald trump took a principled stance and when i mean donald trump it's not just trump i don't want to single him out because he's got a lot of company with other rhino republicans who have also signed on to this keynesian nonsense but if trump and the republicans took a principled stance against stimulus and instead of being in favor of 1.6 were in paper of nothing they said we are not going to print money and run up the debt in order to artificially boost uh the economy now with long-term negative consequences if they told the voters the truth and stood on principle then at least their position would make sense and it wouldn't look partisan it would look like they were standing for something but by agreeing in principle that we need more stimulus well then you just look stingy uh by not willing to provide it or you just look like you're putting your own political interest ahead of the interest of the country you know it's hard to argue too that the reason that you're opposed to the 2.4 trillion is because it unnecessarily runs up the debt i mean once you've agreed to an extra 1.6 trillion what's an extra 600 billion i mean what difference does it make in fact speaking about the the national debt this week for the first time the national debt topped 27 trillion dollars you know it's now up four trillion dollars this year in 2020 and the year's not even over yet we still have a quarter left basically i mean i think we could end up with five trillion in debt in one year five trillion dollars if you think about that number the national debt didn't even hit five trillion dollars until i think the end of the clinton administration early in the george w bush administration so it took all those years just to get a national debt of 5 trillion and and here we we rack it up in a single year and in fact since donald trump took office the national debt is up almost 7 trillion remember it just turned to 20 trillion right after he was inaugurated or right around the time or maybe just before and i think by the time donald trump finishes his first term which is probably going to be his only term but by the time he finishes that term he will have added more to the national debt in four years then barack obama did an eight and barack obama was the biggest deficit spender in history barack obama doubled the national debt meaning that he added as much debt in eight years as all the presidents that preceded him did since the birth of the republic right uh over 200 years ago and donald trump has already outdone him or will outdo him in half the time in just one term now of course the sad part about it is this record isn't going to last because if biden wins not only will he probably outspend trump in his first term he may outspend trump and obama combined in his first term but in any event given how much these deficits are spiraling out of control it doesn't make any sense for the republicans to somehow say the reason that they object to the extra 600 billion is because of the national debt i mean come on who's going to believe that no one gives a damn about the national debt so it doesn't make any sense that the republicans are not compromising with the democrats given that they've already compromised and agreed with the democrats on principle anyway and again again it's not just the budget deficits that are exploding out of control it's the trade deficits and in fact you know that's the other thing that this stimulus stimulates is our deficits our trade deficits look i am not saying that people won't temporarily benefit from the stimulus they will i mean it doesn't benefit the economy right the stimulus doesn't make for a more vibrant economy it doesn't lead to more production of wealth we don't get more goods produced more services provided because we crank up the printing presses
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