저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
제프리 건들락은 2019년 8월 기준 향후 15개월 내 미국 경기침체 확률을 75%로 본다고 밝혔다. 경기침체 신호: 장단기 금리 역전(yield curve)이 가장 뚜렷한 침체 신호이며, 독일 PMI와 미국 여러 심리지표도 하락 중이라고 봤다. 주식시장 평가: 글로벌 증시는 2018년 1월 26일 고점을 찍었고, 뉴욕증시 종합지수는 그 수준을 다시 회복하지 못했다고 평가했다. 최근 18개월간 주식보다 채권 투자 수익이 더 높았다는 점도 짚었다. 금 전망: 2018년 6월 1200달러 부근을 매수 기회로 봤고, 2018년 9월 가격대에서 지금이 금 매수의 좋은 시기라고 권유했다. 음(-)의 수익률 부채가 15조 달러로 늘어난 것이 금 상승 요인이며, 금이 1400달러를 넘어 1600~1700달러까지 갈 수 있다고 전망했다. 진행자 코멘트: 진행자는 건들락이 2018년 9월 금 매수 제안으로 흐름을 맞혔다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
recent volatility in markets has done little to quell recession fears among investors and now closely followed Bond billionaire and DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gunlock is sounding the alarm and Yahoo Finance's Julie LaRoche is here to discuss so in June good luck up the odds of recession to 65% within the next 12 months and given the market action we have seen lately what's he thinking now what's not just what's happened lately I mean he looks at recession indicators every time he does a webcast so I spoke to him yesterday after the market closed for about 40 minutes about a variety of topics and he put the probability of a recession in the next 15 months before the 2020 election so given a 15 month window at 75% and the one thing that is really flashing recessionary full-on recession right now is the yield curve but we also talked about different indicators that he looks at whether it's the PM eyes look at the PMI in Germany for example and even here in the u.s.
starting to get lower various sentiment surveys also starting to get lower so those are the things that are on his radar right now there is the fear that like the more we talk it up the sort of likely or it is you get that impression all it's like well there's actually a lot of really positive indicators especially about the US economy you know we heard Jay pal saying the problem is the global picture it's not us health of the US consumer good and yet the more that experts come around and say recession is coming recession is coming it's like well you try to make it happen well okay so Jeffrey gun lock is of the viewpoint that global stock market peaked on January 26 of 2018 and he basically point out that the New York Stock Exchange composite has not even reached that level again and even other indices that did touch those highs again really haven't maintained those highs so he's of the mindset that we've topped there that we're starting to see weakening in the economy look at the data that was just referenced in the PM eyes for example the sentiment surveys also he brought up stocks and one of the things that you often hear is this an acronym called Tina there is no other no other alternative to US stocks but really he says if you go back in the last 18 months you made more money investing in bonds than you did in stocks and then also on goals because that is something that has really been beaten down kind of forgotten everyone makes fun of people who like gold but now it's a seven-year high I mean what's it what's gun locks view on where gold goes from here yeah and guys I wish Jeffrey was here to explain this stuff because he does a lot better job than I can ever do but last summer in June of 2018 he did talk about gold and was saying if it reached the 1200 level that that would be an interesting buying opportunity so I did drop below that in August of last year and then in September on September 11th of 2018 during a webcast he said now is a really good time to buy gold it was at that 200-level and the reason for buying gold is that it's basically the way it's been moving upward is as the volume of negative yielding debt has ballooned in the world which is now 15 trillion the price of gold has moved up and as we see the volume of that negative yielding debt start to grow then the price of gold should go up and so basically it's from that 1200 level up to 1400 and now he thinks that it could go up to 1600 1700 levels these are levels guys we have not seen since the beginning of 2013 and rember back then that's when gold did take quite a spill and another interesting point to note because it reminds me of back in 2011 when Aaron was a gold gold go to remember that big three-year run-up and gold when it was about like 1900 I remember that run up a lot of folks were asking him at the time about his views on gold and right now the US folks aren't the buyers of gold really it's the foreign demand and a lot of times though when the US folks really start to get in that's when you know they're expecting that big momentum run-up and the old bugs rejoice there you go Congrats to the gold bugs he nailed that trade got to give it to him for that Joella rush we'll talk to you later in two weeks that long enjoy your honeymoon
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