저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인에 대체로 긍정적이며, 1~3개월 내 2만~4만 달러 상승 가능성을 제시함. 주제 1: 트럼프 대통령의 비트코인 비판과 코인베이스 CEO 반박 - 트럼프 대통령이 비트코인 등 암호화폐는 화폐가 아니며 변동성이 크고 불법 거래에 쓰일 수 있다고 비판함. - 코인베이스 CEO 브라이언 암스트롱이 이에 반박함. - Tom Lee는 이 이슈가 전반적으로 긍정적이라고 봄. 세계 인구 대다수가 아직 암호화폐에 무관심하므로 주목받는 것 자체가 호재라는 입장. 주제 2: 페이스북 리브라(Libra)와 규제 우려 - 트럼프가 페이스북 리브라에 규제 대응 가능성을 언급하며 압박함. - Tom Lee는 리브라가 성공하면 암호화폐 대중화의 관문이 될 수 있다고 봄. - 다만 리브라가 없더라도 장기적으로 비트코인 전망은 바뀌지 않는다고 평가함. 주제 3: 기관 참여 확대와 변동성 - 피델리티 등 기관의 암호화폐 거래 서비스 확대를 언급함. - 기관 참여가 늘면 거시경제(달러 약세 등)와의 연관성이 커지고, 가격 유동성과 자산배분 수요가 증가할 것이라고 봄. - 현재는 소수 대형 지갑과 개인투자자 중심이라 변동성이 큰 구조라고 설명함. 주제 4: 비트코인 가격 전망(핵심 예측) - 2018년 12월 공정가치 1만4천 달러 제시를 언급함. 채굴 원가의 약 2.5배 기준이며, 해시파워와 활성 주소 증가로 현재 공정가치는 그보다 높다고 봄. - 역사적 마일스톤 돌파 후 4개월간 200~400% 상승한 사례를 근거로 듦. 현재 가격은 역사적으로 상위 3% 수준에 해당한다고 언급. - 이 패턴이 재현되면 4분기 내 2만~4만 달러 가능성을 제시함. 본인이 가격 예측을 다시 하고 있음을 인정. 주제 5: 기술적 저항선 - 13,400달러 부근이 저항선으로 작용하고 있음. 트레이더들이 이 수준을 주목하고 있다고 설명. - 삼중 고점은 세 번째 돌파 시 무너진다는 논리를 들어, 이 저항을 뚫으면 상승이 가속될 수 있다고 봄. 조건/리스크: 저항선 돌파 실패 시 전망이 약해질 수 있음. 규제 강화와 기관 참여에 따른 거시 연동 심화가 변동성을 키울 수 있음. 언급 종목: 비트코인(상승, 단기~중기 전망). 페이스북 리브라·코인베이스 등은 방향 예측 없음.
다듬은 글
and we've seen I mean the market clearly paying attention very closely to the us-china trade talks but also this week the story has been much about the Fed since we heard from Fed chair Powell twice talking before Congress testifying before Congress but president Trump is weighing in on a topic that came up with Fed chair Powell cryptocurrencies and Donald Trump is giving us two cents particularly on Bitcoin the president tweeting in part saying quote I am NOT a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies which are not money and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air unregulated crypto assets can facilitate unlawful behavior including drug trade and other illegal activity but coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong actually responded to the president's tweet writing in part quote achievement unlocked I dreamt about a sitting US president needing to respond to growing cryptocurrency usage years ago first they ignore you then they laugh at you then they fight you then you win we just made it to step three so joining us now to discuss the Bitcoin controversy is fun straggle advisors managing partner and head of research Tom Lee Tom thank you so much for being here sir when we look at Bitcoin though it's funny because you could say this is a positive or a negative that the president is talking about Bitcoin or that Fed chair Powell is talking about Bitcoin as well how do you see it you know I think on balance it's a positive because you know crypto currencies in Bitcoin really are in the main stage now you'll Congress the Fed the president weighing in I think Brian Armstrong's comments are spot-on it's it's very surprising a year ago I wouldn't have imagined it but more importantly it's going to force everybody who's not involved and remember a very small percentage of the world actually cares about crypto and Bitcoin it's gonna force the other 98% of the world to think about what it means and so it's gonna be I think an overall positive let's talk about to the rally that we've seen right because Bitcoin really did see kind of a push and this was the thinking that when Facebook went out with projectlibre that was kind of why it reinvigorated the market and the community into focusing on Bitcoin again but now that we're seeing pressure against that because President Trump also weighed in on Facebook's plans saying Facebook's Libre virtual currency will have a little standing or defend a dependability if Facebook and other companies want to become a bank seek a new banking Charter and become subject to all banking regulations blah blah get on through it but if he's talking about that right and we see Facebook's project Libre come under pressure is that gonna have a negative impact I think it's gonna be perceived as a negative because you know one Facebook is you know it's a massive platform and I think Libra likely would be hugely successful and I think it would be a great gateway to bring people into crypto but in a world without Libra you know is cryptocurrency gonna be successful absolutely so I I don't think it really changes the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and I want to ask just a little bit about Facebook and you know institutions like fidelity offering cryptocurrency trading on its platform that kind of institutionalization in the long run could that actually be a risk to prices because you know you have sort of these assets now that are uncorrelated with other aspects of the market would that bring more correlation to the table yeah I mean I think by nature the bigger crypto gets and the more widely held it's gonna change the nature of Bitcoin itself number one as you point out it's going to be increasingly macro related we already saw it this year you know weaker dollar bitcoins up eeehm goes up it coins up so I think the macro connection Rises but it's so good for volatility because today crypto is a couple of large wallets some retail there isn't systemic institutional buying so that's why you see such huge volatility so I think you know in a world where there's institutions the prices and liquid is much greater you know it it's a lot of upside from here and yeah then it becomes something that'll you know asset allocators Jews and it's great for relative performance well with all the attention on it too right I mean when we look at where it'll go and I know in December of last year you you kind of put out that note saying I don't wanna weigh in on the predictions on where Bitcoin goes from here anymore but when you look at it now if you're saying this is gonna be in that positive where do you see Bitcoin going are you making projections and now you're asking for a price yeah basically yes well last December when we said look it's tough to do projections we did say fair value was 14000 because that's two and a half times mining cost and I think that still makes a lot of sense so I think you can use breakeven mining that does put fair value because you know hash powers up and active addresses are up so bitcoins fair value is a lot higher than 14-thousand today but I think another way to think of it is this sort of historical look at sort of FOMO and we've published a few pieces on this that bitcoins now trading at a level that it's only seen three percent of its historical days so if you go back to every milestone that that was achieved bitcoins subsequently rallied somewhere between 200 to 400 percent within the next four months so I yeah so I think if that's playing out this time that means Bitcoin you know could be twenty to forty thousand sometime in the fourth quarter it sounds like a prediction to me it sounds like you're back in the prediction game I think I'm satisfied with that but I mean like when we look at at bitcoins price moves right because that is where you see things going but one kind of area of pushback we've kind of seen that 1313 five mark really where it's been met with some price resistance there I mean is that really like kind of the hurdle you need to see Bitcoin achieve to really fall into that twenty to forty thousand dollar yeah I mean I think a lot of people who trade crypto today because it is primarily retail and some whales really care about technicals and so they think about where supply is or the resistance and yeah that's a big level in people's minds is 13400 but you know is that level going to hold forever as you guys know there's no such thing as a triple top so I think the third time you sort of test it is really when you blast through it and we just saw that with the SP right people said Oh a triple tops right now we just blew through it
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