저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
주택시장이 정점을 찍고 하락 중이며 전국적으로 약 5.5%, 일부 지역은 11~12% 하락했다고 주장. 재고 증가, 가격 인하 매물 증가 등을 하락 신호로 제시하고, 대형 건설사 Lennar의 실적 보고서(인센티브 확대, 자사주 매입 대신 부채 상환, 토지 매입 축소)를 근거로 든다. 지역을 3개 카테고리로 나눠 특히 Philly, Austin 등 3군 시장의 약세를 강조하며, 주식·자산 가격 예측은 직접 다루지 않는다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here by now we already know that the housing market has finally hit a peak and it's already been rotating down nationally to the tune of about five and a half percent and in specific areas as much as 11 to 12 since uh march to May when we kind of saw real estate in various different markets Peak some markets peaked as early as February and in this video we're going to break down specifically which areas are starting to be affected the most and what's fascinating is the most common question that I've been getting lately about my real estate startup is Kevin where are you going to buy properties and the answer is well we have an idea we are looking at data just like this to try to understand where the biggest opportunities might actually be coming from so the reason we're not committing to something yet is because the real estate market is just at the beginning of its decline but we're all ready to starting to see some big highlighters in certain cities and that's what we're going to talk about in this video keep in mind generally and this is very generally speaking the way you can determine a real estate bottom is the following ways number one inventory rather than skyrocketing starts rapidly declining right now we're in the phase of building inventory so as you see inventory building you tend to be closer to a top of a market or maybe in uh you know there could be seasonal effects of the year as well but generally when you see inventory go up you tend to see prices come down now if you see price reductions the percentage of listings with active price reductions going up then you tend to also have a sign that you're towards a top of a market rather than the bottom of a market the opposite happens at the bottom of the market bottom Market you tend to see price reductions plummet that is less price reductions are required to see prices actually go up again written for properties to sell and then of course with this one is a little bit more lagging you can keep an eye on median home sale prices the best way to determine a bottom though in my opinion is by actually being in a market regularly so for example with my real estate startup house hack I'm going to have to be in three to five markets and be consistently in them talking to agents every single week about what's going on in the market and visiting those markets throughout the United States so that way I know oh here's a housing track and we're seeing three bedroom two bath thirteen hundred square foot models sell for less less and less every single month then we know okay we haven't hit the bottom yet but when we start seeing the leading data okay and this is like a big secret like only somebody in the real estate industry would be able to tell you this ho just sit behind the camera or you know sit around at home and don't actually go and physically do anything and then you wouldn't know this real estate is a people business and when you start seeing the Realtors telling you at broker tours or on the phone when you're talking about what's going on or in person at meetings hey we're starting to see more activity hey whoa instead of property sitting on the market for for 30 days before getting an offer we're starting to get offers in 20 days or in 10 days or in two days after listing hey we're starting to increase our listing prices with Sellers and we're starting to get those you can get a three to four months a month advantage on when the housing market is actually bottoming because you're actually paying attention to the market significantly better than anybody else is paying attention to the market I would rather know that pending home sales are going in for higher values at the bottom of the market then wait three or four months for the National Association Realtors or Redfin or whatever to give me some kind of sales or sold data then you're too late right anyway this information we're going to look at here is a form of leading information about the housing market slowing down and it gives us some insight from home builder Lennar who has three categories of housing markets suffering Decline and they just came out on September 22nd at the end of September 22nd with a new update in terms of what the heck is going on in the market so let's go ahead and look at their introduction first and then we're going to go into the specific market so intro here obviously we know that housing has now been quote considerably impacted by more than the doubling of mortgage rates we saw this coming there's a reason I said since January we got to be careful like housing's about to get destroyed and everybody thought I was crazy that no way Supply is way too tight it'll never go down yeah right just buckle up it not only has it started going down it's going to continue to go down my expectation now uh then we have a note over here that while there is still a housing shortage across the country and we're not expecting to see a foreclosure or Speculator crisis kind of like we did in 2008 where you had a bunch of short sales and foreclosures we are seeing prices go down and incentives basically being increased now this is really important and it's part of the psychology that I teach in the programs in building your wealth linked down below but you got to know this when a home builder sells a property for 500 thousand dollars and then the next home that they finished construction on it comes up for sale for four hundred ninety thousand dollars guess who they just pissed off they just pissed off the prior buyer and the prior buyer feels like they got reamed like they got a bad deal right so generally in new construction homes and we specifically talk about this in the zero to millionaire course for real estate investing there's also a o that way if you're clueless about real estate you can learn everything from zero to millionaire what it takes to get there and honestly a relatively easy it actually is but anyway uh if the Builder instead every phase of new construction see let's say if this is phase one then phase two they say okay we're going to sell homes for 510 and then phase three we're going to sell homes for uh here we go we're gonna sell homes for 520.
well now all of a sudden people are happy because they feel like there's appreciation happening in the neighborhood and that they made the right decision so that way these people are happy these people are happy and these people are happy because those people have historically been happy so that implies that they should be happy going forward as well right now when the market goes down the first thing that Builders do is they increase what are known as incentives so if the market value of this property actually declines to 490 000 because interest rates go up substantially well then rather than actually providing a thirty thousand dollar price reduction why don't we just give you some incentives and basically convince you to buy the property so that way you can Finance this and we'll just give you thirty thousand dollars in Builder credits we'll put in whatever floor you want you want this seven dollar square foot hardwood floor because you're an idiot and you don't understand anything about investing you just want to blow your money no problem we'll put that in for you there you go you got 3 000 square feet we'll throw this in here for seven bucks a foot throw in baseboards boom your thirty thousand dollars is gone I know that it's a little crazy but but it is kind of how it goes with the new construction Builders but now all of a sudden somebody's paying 520 for a building they feel like they're only paying 490 but the sales comp actually shows up at 5 20.
so all these people guess what are still happy and they just think oh okay yeah you put in expensive flooring wow how pretty how nice your feet really know the difference no it's a complete rip-off and it's stupid also things by the way that I teach in my Renovations courses there's a coupon code by the way for those expiring on September 30th you get private live streams with me as well where I also do deal analysis and fundamental analysis on real estate and stocks okay let's go back to Lennar over here and see what else they've got for us and then we're gonna get into those specific markets one of the big red flags that I'm seeing from Lennar is that on September 22nd which just not that long ago they're telling us that now the sudden they're being extremely selective on new acquisitions for new communities this is really bad for the national housing shortage but it's a way of them basically saying hey like our stock is getting cheap to the point where we may as well start evaluating do we actually want to buy land or do we just want to buy back our stock now they're not buying back their stock because instead they're paying off debt I believe they mentioned that on one of the first Pages here that oh yeah here it is after paying down 575 million of maturing debt without replacement we're fortifying our balance sheet and we're choosing not to repurchase stock so in other words they see the writing on the wall right like this is a huge warning sign Lennar is like yeah we're not going to buy back stock because we're going to pay down debt because we're worried that things are about to hit the fan and we want to make sure we're insulated that's a smart thing to do as a company but over here they tell us yeah we're not really buying land right now because we'd rather buy stock but they're not buying stock because they'd rather pay down debt because they're panicking so they're definitely not buying land for new developments right like that is a leading Red Flag by the way if you're an accredited investor or not because we're expecting in January to be able to accept non-accredited investors there's something I think that's really cool for you to know about house hack that we can do and that's my startup you can go to househack.com for them but there are actually three ways that you can get wedge deals number one this is what everybody has access to if a flipper is flipping homes in your area you can buy a wedge deal so you buy a wedge deal below market right that is a definition of a wedge deal for single family generally that is a fixer-upper for multi-family that's something that's below rent uh and then that way the cap rates uh appear misaligned and and you can increase the rents to kind of fix that and increase the value of the property anyway that's your traditional way to get a wedge deal those are just two ways they're actually four in total but those are the most common two for multi-family and single family number two the second way that my startup can actually get wedge deals is actually what Lenard said when we go public which I expect to go public this decade I'm really excited about that I mean no guarantees right but I want to IPO this company I want to ring the stock market exchange Bell and I want to be able to reward all of the people who are joining house hack by not taking a dime of compensation until they've at least doubled their money uh but not only that I'll be subject to massive lockups on any kind of comp I get and I'm not getting paid until we IPO which is great but anyway the next thing that we can do is you can actually get a wedge deal by buying back your stock and what's really remarkable about that is if you think about it if you buy a 500 000 house as a wedge deal in a 700 000 neighborhood and you put 50k into it you get 150k wedge deal but now if you have a stock market crash and the value of your entire company that's holding these assets Falls below levels where like you're getting it for a discount of Book value say another 15 off of Book value well now all of a sudden you may as well just buy stock back and you're literally buying that 550k house in a 700 a thousand dollar neighborhood now for another say 10 10 percent off so now five hundred thousand not even considering the fix up or four hundred fifty thousand dollars depending on what the stock market discount is being offered and so like when Lennar says Hey like we might have the opportunity to buy back our stock it's actually a really smart thing to do like there are opportunities where you can actually get a wedge deal after a wedge deal after a wedge deal and then another thing that you can do is you can as a corporation as a C corporation you can kind of what I call roof stock your properties which is where you could take like let's say if you had a thousand properties you take like a slice over here a sliver of maybe uh 10 or 20 of your properties you sell these off to a pension fund for a premium right so and and that's fair because you've already gotten these properties stabilized or whatever right uh and you maintain the management some appreciation to the upside whatever maybe it's not necessarily a premium day one but it's a premium in the end when you when you take a share of the appreciation those are three ways you can actually get wedge deals in real estate now everybody as a normal normal person watching everybody has access to option number one only corporations have options uh of the option for number two and then corporations or Partnerships have the option for number three generally okay so uh you know this is just all more just education for you I think it's very important to know so what are those uh actual markets that we want to talk about well here we go so here are the uh Faye or category one markets so category one markets have continued to be strong and we've had to offer mortgage buy down programs and normalize incentives to maintain sales momentum so basically like even in their strong markets they're having to give people money to get them to buy the deals and to maintain any kind of semblance of sales momentum so even even though these markets are doing well and they're benefiting from low unemployment and low inventory they're still having to cut prices and give more incentives in these markets so these are not immune markets these are just sort of like the best of the worst and the best of the worst are Southwest Florida Southeast Florida palm Atlantic New Jersey Maryland Virginia Charlotte and Indianapolis and this is a shocker San Diego oh wow all right Category 2 markets these reflect more significant adjustments more significant adjustments these include the following Tampa Orlando Jacksonville Coastal Carolina's Atlanta Chicago Nashville Raleigh Dallas Houston San Antonio Phoenix Tucson Arizona Las Vegas Colorado Coastal California that's the Mediterranean climate for you uh in the south at least uh Coastal Carolina's Inland Empire Bay Area Central Valley Sacramento Seattle Portland each of these markets have seen traffic slow we've seen a pile up of cancellation and while inventory is limited this is like the most common argument that people make as well inventory yeah yeah all right we got it it doesn't mean that you're immune from prices going down in fact we've had to offer more aggressive financing programs reduce prices and or increase incentives that's kind of like your flooring thing right now the third category of markets these are the ones with a more significant Market softening and car Direction already include the following Philly Minnesota Pensacola Austin Texas it's a big one Reno Boise Idaho and Utah while the drivers and individual dynamics of these markets are somewhat varied traffic has slowed significantly fires are taking more time to make a purchase decision and many need to be convinced that now is the time to buy dude now is not the time to buy let me just tell you that okay that's ridiculous there is fear that sales prices have not hit bottom and or should I say which has led to elevated cancellations in these markets we are focused on establishing pricing that generates new sales to offset cancellations this has required us to work in many cases with backlog to prevent cancellations in other words it basically means going up to your your existing buyers and you're like please hey can we just give you like a preventive like ten thousand dollars off and Here sign this paper saying you're definitely buying the house right like in other words there is panic going on here with significant base price reductions aggressive mortgage buy Downs this is important because really what Lennar is telling you is hey like when fear strikes that's when these these areas become category three markets because notice in category one and category two they really didn't say anything other than like yeah we have to give some more incentives and people are still buying as soon as they mentioned the f word which is fear the fear that sales prices have not hit bottom that's when the real price declines come folks and that is normal that is also normal in terms of what you would expect in a bubble first you have the fear of missing out which is people today still saying things like oh I may as well get in now before interest rates go up dumb really really dumb whatever that's exactly what happens right before a bubble pops and then what do you end up having you actually fear that oh no prices are falling and I don't know when they're going to bottom that usually lasts for a few years that sort of fear that fear becomes so entrenched that when it's time to buy most people don't buy but fortunately I played this Rodeo before of timing the bottom in the real estate market and that is why now we're going to do so at scale go to househack.com to learn more about househack now there's also this talk about this professionalization of single family dwellings still though only about 20 percent of home buyers are investors but but what they mention here is those competitors are actually slowing down and their interest in single families has moderated again another opportunity for house hack I mean this is like I could not have asked for a better time to launch this startup this is so phenomenal and and we're killing it with fundraising right now we're over well I think we're over 17 or 18 million now this is really really good and we're only in this like two weeks so far which is insane that at the bottom of the stock market we're still getting massive uh sign ups uh from from investors we we if we get to a number that's too too high we'll end up having to close the round because we're selling founder shares so anyway uh they do mention that here our incentives are about four and a half percent uh right now so that's sort of the total uh mix of how much they're incentivizing sales that is an average across the country and they are seeing inventory building up so you do have really red flags here going forward I think honestly not only are the individual markets red flags but you also have this mad massive red flag that when they tell you yeah instead of um buying land to build new homes we're just gonna buy back stock and then in another part of the same investor report they're like yeah you know we thought about buying back stock but we're actually just going to pay down our debt I mean it just tells you what's coming and if you don't believe the second largest homebuilder in the country that real estate is hitting the wall nobody can help you except for maybe me and you taking advantage of that amazing coupon code that expires at the end of the month September 30th linked down below make sure you get into those programs and building your wealth and you can directly ask me questions in our q a live streams thank you so much goodbye
Comments 0