저자: 미상 · 외국인
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중국 경제가 부동산 버블(3대 레드라인 정책 이후 디벨로퍼 디폴트 확산), 주택구입자 대출 거부(보이콧 343개 프로젝트, 2개월간 8% 증가), 제로코로나 정책, 위안화 약세 압력으로 심각한 위기에 처해 있다는 주장. 중국 주택 소유율 96%, 홍콩 상장주 가격이 2009년 수준이라는 점을 근거로 제시. 중국이 붕괴 수준은 아니나 장기 深刻한 침체 가능성을 언급. 이로 인한 디스인플레이션이 미국에 도움이 될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Asia is in pain Sri Lanka is bankrupt Japan is propping up their currency and while we in America reel from over stimulating our economy now suffering from inflation we haven't seen in 40 years with Fed rate hikes crushing the market that we haven't seen in 30 years China has its own devastating problems some say so bad that China might collapse to prevent this the Chinese government is stimulating its economy plowing billions of dollars into infrastructure projects hoping to hire enough people and prop up land values by spending money on infrastructure well so far the stock market and housing market are not very happy about the progress of the Chinese government this here shows you that by some measures Equity values that its stock values have dropped all the way back to 2012 levels and by other metrics we have seen that Hong Kong listed stocks are as cheap as they were in 2009.
these are actual nominal prices here that have fallen substantially now if we take a look at actual Price to Book value ratios we could see that many of these lows in Price to Book values are lows that we haven't seen since the bottom of the 2009 or.com bubble recessions and the housing market isn't happy either with housing market indices also plummeting so you've got a lot of pain in China and there are a lot of questions about what could this mean for America how important is this how bad is it is this going to get and ultimately why is this happening well the first thing that you need to do to understand all of this is mark your calendars for September 30th because we're going to talk about everything in this video but you've got to know that if you want private live streams with me and lectures on building your wealth through real estate and stocks there's a coupon code expiring on September 30th September 30th is also the deadline for you to wire your funds to invest in house hack if you'd like the full amount of bonus warrants that you get for free just make sure you read the PPM and understand all the details of this at housesack.com because this isn't a solicitation but you can learn more at househack.com we're offering founding shares to accredited investors and free warrants which are kind of like call options although they're pretty different details of course at househack.com check out that link below next to the link for the programs I'm building you both so China first a lot of the issues that China is facing unfortunately seem self-inflicted housing makes up one-third of China's economy and as much as 70 percent of Chinese citizens individual wealth housing is extremely critical to China and the home ownership rate in China is extremely high as many as 96 percent of Chinese individuals own their own homes in rural areas and within cities about 87 percent of Chinese are homeowners this stands in contrast to America where the homeownership rate is about 30 percentage points lower at just 65.5 percent in China homeownership isn't just a source of wealth or economic might like it is here in America but it's also a symbol of national pride and Pride is very very important to the Chinese they're very smart people but we've got some problems in the economy see the Chinese folks are and makeup the second largest economy in the world and realistically they'd love to take over America and probably should they have three times the population of America and economy wise America is still twice the size of China even with a population that's just a one-third the size so to China preserving the housing market and ensuring that individuals wealth remains high so that China can continue to develop and grow its GDP at high growth rates which we've been used to experiencing for the last 10 to 15 years in China China needs to make sure that the housing market remains stable and so to do this China instituted this policy called the three red line policy in August of 2020.
this unfortunately ended up proving either to be a devastating mistake or ended up proving that everything was built upon false hopium and the Chinese housing market was really just a Ponzi scheme the three red lines policy had a very simple goal the goal was to prevent excessive leverage and housing especially since many ghost cities were being built under the mentality of hey if we fund developers in China well then people like developers would go build homes and then other people will build restaurants and hey if you build it people will come right the issue first started with the realization that no people do not necessarily come to ghost towns China then ended up having built way too many homes under the demand and sort of mandate of the government to just build more and continue growing at all costs and they even incentivize developers to grow as much as possible enabling the heavy taking on of Leverage that was done before the three strikes policy that went into effect in August of 2020.
and so much like the Federal Reserve made a mistake in acting too late on inflation China acted too late to slow the booming housing market China's three red lines included limiting developers to no more than 70 percent of assets as debt no more than one hundred percent of debt to equity and the requirement that developers have at least as much cash on hand as they need in order to satisfy their debts in the next 12 months unfortunately this stopped the Chinese real estate Ponzi cult see a Ponzi scheme is traditionally when money that goes into sort of a period of a pyramid if you will is just use to pay dividends to Prior investors to make the investors feel like there's actually a good business model that's making money well the reality is the previous investors are just getting paid out from previous investors uh or new investors I should say and in the case of china payments made by buyers on homes that were not yet built were used to pay for construction projects that were older and still under construction so picture this you have one Housing Development that's three months from completion and buyers are paying for that one already but the developer starts running out of money so to fund and the finishing of development number one they start another development starts selling hopium and vision to new buyers and then take that money and finish project number one and all of that works fine as long as the money tap is still nice and open but the flow of money stopped thanks to these new strict lending requirements the three strikes policy the idea was hey let's prevent a housing bubble but China acted too late so what happened construction stopped not only on the new projects but the old projects and just like a classic housing market bubble fear set into effect and home values collapsed the real popping of the bubble though seems to have happened at the time about one year after the three strikes policy was implemented when we saw and first heard of the massive defaults of one of China's largest property developers called evergrant it took roughly one year from the three strikes of policy or three line policy three red line policy for these defaults to occur and those defaults today here in September of 2022 are continuing According to some of the latest data that we have on defaults when we were just halfway through 22 22 through about June and July of 2022 default applications by mostly property developers exceeded the defaults that we saw a year ago in 2021 that means in half of 2022 we had a worse default year than in all of 2021 despite the fact that's when evergrand first defaulted and so literally as recently as yesterday more developers are continuing to default and a lot of this is thanks to the housing market bubble that was propped up by excessive leverage and an excessive mandate to grow at all costs in China thus we now face the second issue as property developments freeze and seize up Chinese home buyers waiting for properties to be delivered are starting to boycott their mortgages keep in mind in China you start paying for properties even before they're complete via something known as a pre-sale this is different in America in America you generally don't pay for a new construction home unless either you're building it or you are buying from a typical home builder in which case you wouldn't actually start paying for the home until you have a certificate of occupancy and you close that score on the home unfortunately in China this is different you start paying for the home as soon as you tie it up even though the developer isn't necessarily finished yet and even though technically some of these developers should be finished as in bankrupt not to be confused with actually finishing their developments in China it's not that easy to go bankrupt the bankruptcy process is extremely murky and cities and other private developers are now being encouraged to take partial ownership of defaulting Developers however many of those with cash are fearful that they're just catching a falling knife by getting involved with defaulting developers Anna from GitHub via a project literally called quote we need home showed that home buyers boycotting payments are now up to 343 projects as of mid-september 2022 this is up from 318 in July now what's remarkable about that is that represents an eight percent increase in the number of boycotted projects where people just are not making their payment anymore because the projects are not being finished and that is just in two months an eight percent increase in two months means we could potentially see a doubling of boycotted mortgage payments over the next year because that's roughly the annualized rate where we are now keep in mind this is 343 projects not not homes like each project could have a thousand homes plus or minus this is a drastic issue and the boycotts are now spreading not only are buyers alleging that properties are not being delivered anymore now they're amplifying their complaints leading to even more people boycotting and not making their mortgage payments worsening the situation for developers and potential investors who want to bail those developers out right now they are arguing quote according to Bloomberg Chinese home buyers are citing a wider range of concerns now as justification to boycott mortgage payments including poor construction and noise pollution ratcheting up their demand amid a spiraling housing crisis and as a result home confidence and home buying confidence has collapsed home values are down 29 year over year in China and markets are in a deep recession contending with an exploding property bubble all of this is exacerbated by the third problem covid zero despite Chinese stimulus trying to prop up the housing market and land market by starting 52 000 new infrastructure projects if we start one infrastructure project in America it seems like a big deal this is 52 000 new infrastructure projects in an attempt to prop up land values and increase employment well folks data that just came out last Friday shows that property data continues to prove a decline in investment and construction and land values despite 52 000 new infrastructure projects now Hong Kong just made the decision to scrap mandatory hotel quarantines finally ending this coveted zero policy with airline tickets now already boosting their prices however Hong Kong is a semi-autonomous region of China and only represents one half of one percent of the Chinese population China's coveted zero policies are so stringent that a city near Myanmar has now a acted what is known as a steel Great Wall it's a collection of sheet metal Barracks razor wire and fences to ensure nobody gets into China without following the covet zero protocols so if you think covet zero is over it ain't China is also faced with a currency risk the more China stimulates the less valuable their currency becomes against the dollar now a weaker Chinese currency might seem like it would encourage a greater purchasing of Chinese products but remember China is trying to become more self-sufficient just consider the chip or battery industry for example they're trying to invest more in China and therefore they need to import more products like electrical Machinery from the United States and other goods and services like Consulting exports exports that is and while they will likely continue to export more than they import they don't want a very weak Chinese currency they want one right around or Yuan that's somewhere around 6.92 not weaker than that not stronger than that that's the perfect balance for them however the more they stimulate the more that Yuan goes to seven bucks goes to 705 goes to 710 and the more the stimulus could actually end up hurting their long-term visions and so this is where unlike in America where if we just want to stimulate a lot and whatever happens to the dollar happens China is a little bit stuck between a rock and a hard place on top of that next month you have a Communist Party Congress where Xi Jinping might receive a renewed five-year term some are saying that potentially during this a meeting or congress we might actually see an announcement that covet policies are being relaxed and maybe we'll actually see some more stimulus though many say this is just hopium that covet zero is probably here to stay for a while China is not going to be able to stimulate as much as they need to and their stimulus is really going to fall on deaf ears because the housing market is collapsing and anybody who thinks that A Renewed five-year term for or Zee Jinping is likely to bring any kind of quick change is probably not realizing that China while it is unlikely to collapse is likely going to go through a very lasting and deep recession if not a great Chinese depression now when it comes to America some say you know what that could be a blessing because the less demand China has for Global goods and services Allah oil for example the lower prices go and the lower prices go of goods and services around the global economy including oil the more deflation or disinflation we experience so if China goes through a Great Depression ironically it could actually be exactly what America needs an anchor in the global economy to slow down and bring down the demand for goods and services which where there's an overlap will drive prices down and hopefully bring disinflation and deflation to the United States not that in the United States we want to cheer at the failures of China and China in my opinion is unlikely to collapse China will be going through a very difficult period and my heart goes out to the individual Chinese especially the Chinese investors who were suffering at a time like this because I think the Chinese are incredibly smart people they just had a government that wanted to expand too quickly but China will be back
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